Spatiotemporal Analysis of Extracted Groundwater Volumes Estimated from Electricity Consumption.

Land subsidence caused by groundwater overexploitation is a serious global problem. The acquisition of spatiotemporal pumping rates and volumes is a first step for water managers to develop a strategic plan for mitigating land subsidence. This study investigates an empirical formulation to estimate the monthly maximum pumped volume over a 10-year period based on electric power consumption data. A spatiotemporal variability analysis of monthly pumped volume is developed to provide an improved understanding of seasonal pumping patterns and the role of irrigation type. The analysis of regional pumped volume provides an approximation of the spatiotemporal patterns of the variations in pumped volume. Results show the effects of climate, seasonal changes in pumping from irrigation, and the local differences in pumping caused to crop types. A seasonal pumped volume peak occurs annually, with the highest and least pumped volumes occurring in March (highest peak) and September (lowest peak), respectively. However, the majority of the historical maximum pumped volumes have occurred during the last few years. Extracted volumes continue to increase in some locations. The analysis reveals increasing trends in pumping, thereby possibly providing the locations where increased effective stresses may lead to land subsidence.

Variability of subsurface structure and infiltration hydrology among surface coal mine valley fills.

Surface coal mining alters landscapes including creating waste-rock fills or dumps. In Appalachia USA, mines fill valleys with waste rock, constructing valley fills that affect water quality and aquatic ecology downstream. Total dissolved solids (TDS) in mine effluent are elevated from exposure of mineral surfaces to weathering. Understanding TDS variability requires understanding valley fill internal structure and its effect on hydrology, yet prior studies focused on point measurements or did not address patterns among fills. Here we investigated subsurface structure and hydrologic flowpaths in two dimensions within four valley fills using electrical resistivity imaging (ERI). We used artificial rainfall to investigate the location and transit time of preferential flowpaths through the fills. We corroborated our ERI interpretations using borehole logs, downhole video, and shallow soil excavation. ERI results indicated variability in substrate type and widespread presence of preferential flowpaths. We estimated an average preferential flowpath vertical length of 6.6 m, average transit time of water along the flowpath of 1.4 h, and average minimum water velocity of 5.1 m/h (0.14 cm/s). These rates are higher than typical for undisturbed lands, and resemble highly preferential flow in karst terrain. ERI successfully distinguished fills using conventional loose-dump construction from experimental controlled-material compacted-lift construction. Conventional fills exhibited finer particles that retain water at the surface, with larger rocks and larger voids at depth. Conventional fills had greater ranges of subsurface resistivity (i.e. substrate types) and greater interior accumulation of water during artificial rainfall, indicating more quick/deep preferential infiltration flowpaths. We show experimental construction significantly alters hydrologic response, which in combination with use of low-TDS waste rock, may affect downstream water quality relative to conventional loose-dump methods. Our soil boring and pits corroborated ERI interpretation, thus demonstrating ERI to be a robust non-invasive technique that provides reliable information on valley fill structure and hydrology.

An integrated risk assessment model of township-scaled land subsidence based on an evidential reasoning algorithm and fuzzy set theory.

Land subsidence risk assessment (LSRA) is a multi-attribute decision analysis (MADA) problem and is often characterized by both quantitative and qualitative attributes with various types of uncertainty. Therefore, the problem needs to be modeled and analyzed using methods that can handle uncertainty. In this article, we propose an integrated assessment model based on the evidential reasoning (ER) algorithm and fuzzy set theory. The assessment model is structured as a hierarchical framework that regards land subsidence risk as a composite of two key factors: hazard and vulnerability. These factors can be described by a set of basic indicators defined by assessment grades with attributes for transforming both numerical data and subjective judgments into a belief structure. The factor-level attributes of hazard and vulnerability are combined using the ER algorithm, which is based on the information from a belief structure calculated by the Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory, and a distributed fuzzy belief structure calculated by fuzzy set theory. The results from the combined algorithms yield distributed assessment grade matrices. The application of the model to the Xixi-Chengnan area, China, illustrates its usefulness and validity for LSRA. The model utilizes a combination of all types of evidence, including all assessment information--quantitative or qualitative, complete or incomplete, and precise or imprecise--to provide assessment grades that define risk assessment on the basis of hazard and vulnerability. The results will enable risk managers to apply different risk prevention measures and mitigation planning based on the calculated risk states.

A new zonation algorithm with parameter estimation using hydraulic head and subsidence observations.

Parameter estimation codes such as UCODE_2005 are becoming well-known tools in groundwater modeling investigations. These programs estimate important parameter values such as transmissivity (T) and aquifer storage values (Sa ) from known observations of hydraulic head, flow, or other physical quantities. One drawback inherent in these codes is that the parameter zones must be specified by the user. However, such knowledge is often unknown even if a detailed hydrogeological description is available. To overcome this deficiency, we present a discrete adjoint algorithm for identifying suitable zonations from hydraulic head and subsidence measurements, which are highly sensitive to both elastic (Sske) and inelastic (Sskv) skeletal specific storage coefficients. With the advent of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), distributed spatial and temporal subsidence measurements can be obtained. A synthetic conceptual model containing seven transmissivity zones, one aquifer storage zone and three interbed zones for elastic and inelastic storage coefficients were developed to simulate drawdown and subsidence in an aquifer interbedded with clay that exhibits delayed drainage. Simulated delayed land subsidence and groundwater head data are assumed to be the observed measurements, to which the discrete adjoint algorithm is called to create approximate spatial zonations of T, Sske , and Sskv . UCODE-2005 is then used to obtain the final optimal parameter values. Calibration results indicate that the estimated zonations calculated from the discrete adjoint algorithm closely approximate the true parameter zonations. This automation algorithm reduces the bias established by the initial distribution of zones and provides a robust parameter zonation distribution.

Poroelastic effects on fracture characterization.

Reverse water-level fluctuations have been widely observed in aquitards or aquifers separated from a pumped confined aquifer (Noordbergum effect) immediately after the initiation of pumping. This same reverse fluctuation has been observed in a fractured crystalline-rock aquifer at the Coles Hill uranium site in Virginia in which the reverse water-level response occurs within a pumped fracture and results from an instantaneous strain response to pumping that precedes the pore-pressure response in observation wells of sufficient distance from the pumped well. This response is referred to as the Mandel-Cryer effect. The unique aspect of this water level rise during a controlled 24 h pumping test was that the reverse water levels lasted for approximately 100 min and reached a magnitude of nearly 1 cm prior to a typical drawdown response. The duration and magnitude of the response reflects the poromechanical properties of the fractured host rock and hydraulic properties of the pumped fracture. An axisymmetric flow and deformation model were developed using Biot2 in an effort to simulate the observed water-level response along an assumed 0.5 to 1.0 cm aperture horizontal fracture 176 m from the pumping well and to identify the importance of the poroelastic effect. Results indicate that traditional aquifer-testing methods that ignore the poromechanical response are not significantly different than results that include the response. However, the poroelastic effect allows for more accurate and efficient parameter calibration.

Assessing hydrofracing success from earth tide and barometric response.

Identifying fracture pathways and connectivity between adjacent wells is vital for understanding flow characteristics, transport properties, and fracture characteristics. In this investigation, a simple, straightforward methodology is presented for assessing hydrofracing success and identifying possible fracture connectivity between neighboring boreholes, using water-level barometric response and tide signatures of individual fractures in a crystalline-rock setting. Water levels and barometric pressure heads were collected at two wells 27 m apart both prior to, and after, hydrofracing one of the wells at the fractured-rock research site in Floyd County, Virginia. Vastly different barometric and tidal signatures existed at the two wells prior to hydrofracing as well EX-1 had no discernable fractures, while W-03 was connected to an identified fault-zone aquifer and produced a notable water-level earth tide and barometric signatures. After hydrofracing EX-1, new fractures were induced and the resulting water-level tidal signature and barometric efficiencies were nearly identical to the W-03 well. Aquifer testing conducted from both wells verified this connectivity along the fault-zone aquifer. The small phase difference between the tidal responses in the two wells can be accounted for by the calculated differences in transmissivity and casing diameter.

The value of subsidence data in ground water model calibration.

The accurate estimation of aquifer parameters such as transmissivity and specific storage is often an important objective during a ground water modeling investigation or aquifer resource evaluation. Parameter estimation is often accomplished with changes in hydraulic head data as the key and most abundant type of observation. The availability and accessibility of global positioning system and interferometric synthetic aperture radar data in heavily pumped alluvial basins can provide important subsidence observations that can greatly aid parameter estimation. The aim of this investigation is to evaluate the value of spatial and temporal subsidence data for automatically estimating parameters with and without observation error using UCODE-2005 and MODFLOW-2000. A synthetic conceptual model (24 separate cases) containing seven transmissivity zones and three zones each for elastic and inelastic skeletal specific storage was used to simulate subsidence and drawdown in an aquifer with variably thick interbeds with delayed drainage. Five pumping wells of variable rates were used to stress the system for up to 15 years. Calibration results indicate that (1) the inverse of the square of the observation values is a reasonable way to weight the observations, (2) spatially abundant subsidence data typically produce superior parameter estimates under constant pumping even with observation error, (3) only a small number of subsidence observations are required to achieve accurate parameter estimates, and (4) for seasonal pumping, accurate parameter estimates for elastic skeletal specific storage values are largely dependent on the quantity of temporal observational data and less on the quantity of available spatial data.

The influence of geologic structures on deformation due to ground water withdrawal.

A 62 day controlled aquifer test was conducted in thick alluvial deposits at Mesquite, Nevada, for the purpose of monitoring horizontal and vertical surface deformations using a high-precision global positioning system (GPS) network. Initial analysis of the data indicated an anisotropic aquifer system on the basis of the observed radial and tangential deformations. However, new InSAR data seem to indicate that the site may be bounded by an oblique normal fault as the subsidence bowl is both truncated to the northwest and offset from the pumping well to the south. A finite-element numerical model was developed using ABAQUS to evaluate the potential location and hydromechanical properties of the fault based on the observed horizontal deformations. Simulation results indicate that for the magnitude and direction of motion at the pumping well and at other GPS stations, which is toward the southeast (away from the inferred fault), the fault zone (5 m wide) must possess a very high permeability and storage coefficient and cross the study area in a northeast-southwest direction. Simulated horizontal and vertical displacements that include the fault zone closely match observed displacements and indicate the likelihood of the presence of the inferred fault. This analysis shows how monitoring horizontal displacements can provide valuable information about faults, and boundary conditions in general, in evaluating aquifer systems during an aquifer test.

Influence of ancient thrust faults on the hydrogeology of the Blue Ridge Province.

The Blue Ridge Province contains ubiquitous northeast-southwest-trending thrust faults or smaller thrust "slivers" that greatly impact the nature and character of ground water flow in this region. Detailed investigations at a field site in Floyd County, Virginia, indicate that high-permeability zones occur in the brittle crystalline rocks above these thrust faults. Surface and borehole geophysics, aquifer tests, and chlorofluorocarbon and geochemical data reveal that the shallow saprolite aquifer is separated from the deeper fault-zone aquifer by a low-fracture permeability bedrock confining unit, the hydraulic conductivity of which has been estimated to be six orders of magnitude less than the conductivity of the fault zones at the test site. Within the Blue Ridge Province, these fault zones can occur at depths of 300 m or more, can contain a significant amount of storage, and yield significant quantities of water to wells. Furthermore, it is expected that these faults may compartmentalize the deep aquifer system. Recharge to and discharge from the deep aquifer occurs by slow leakage through the confining unit or through localized breach zones that occur where quartz accumulated in high concentrations during metamorphism and later became extensively fractured during episodes of deformation. The results of this investigation stress the importance of thrust faults in this region and suggest that hydrogeologic models for the Blue Ridge Province include these ancient structural features. Faults in crystalline-rock environments may not only influence the hydrology, they may dominate the flow characteristics of a region.

Multiple-aquifer characterization from single borehole extensometer records.

Measurement and analysis of aquifer-system compaction have been used to characterize aquifer and confining unit properties when other techniques such as flow modeling have been ineffective at adequately quantifying storage properties or matching historical water levels in environments experiencing land subsidence. In the southeastern coastal plain of Virginia, high-sensitivity borehole pipe extensometers were used to measure 24.2 mm of total compaction at Franklin from 1979 through 1995 (1.5 mm/year) and 50.2 mm of total compaction at Suffolk from 1982 through 1995 (3.7 mm/year). Analysis of the extensometer data reveals that the small rates of aquifer-system compaction appear to be correlated with withdrawals of water from confined aquifers. One-dimensional vertical compaction modeling indicates measured compaction is the result of nonrecoverable hydrodynamic consolidation of the fine-grained confining units and interbeds, as well as recoverable compaction and expansion of coarse-grained aquifer units. The calibrated modeling results indicate that nonrecoverable specific storage values decrease with depth and range from 1.5 x 10(-5)/m for aquifer units to 1.5 x 10(-4)/m for confining units and interbeds. The aquifer and Potomac system recoverable specific storage values were all estimated to be 4.5 x 10(-6)/m, while the confining units and interbeds had values of 6.0 x 10(-6)/m. The calibrated vertical hydraulic conductivity values of the confining units and interbeds ranged from 6.6 x 10(-4) m/year to 2.0 x 10(-3) m/year. These parameter values will be useful in future management and modeling of ground water in the Virginia Coastal Plain.