A whole-of-health system approach to improving care of frail older persons.

The population is aging, with frailty emerging as a significant risk factor for poor outcomes for older people who become acutely ill. We describe the development and implementation of the Frail Older Persons' Collaborative Program, which aims to optimise the care of frail older adults across healthcare systems in Queensland. Priority areas were identified at a co-design workshop involving key stakeholders, including consumers, multidisciplinary clinicians, senior Queensland Health staff and representatives from community providers and residential aged care facilities. Locally developed, evidence-based interventions were selected by workshop participants for each priority area: a Residential Aged Care Facility acute care Support Service (RaSS); improved early identification and management of frail older persons presenting to hospital emergency departments (GEDI); optimisation of inpatient care (Eat Walk Engage); and enhancement of advance care planning. These interventions have been implemented across metropolitan and regional areas, and their impact is currently being evaluated through process measures and system-level outcomes. In this narrative paper, we conceptualise the healthcare organisation as a complex adaptive system to explain some of the difficulties in achieving change within a diverse and dynamic healthcare environment. The Frail Older Persons' Collaborative Program demonstrates that translating research into practice and effecting change can occur rapidly and at scale if clinician commitment, high-level leadership, and adequate resources are forthcoming.

A multimodal intervention to optimise antimicrobial use in residential aged care facilities (ENGAGEMENT): protocol for a stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Inappropriate antibiotic use can cause harm and promote antimicrobial resistance, which has been declared a major health challenge by the World Health Organization. In Australian residential aged care facilities (RACFs), the most common indications for antibiotic prescribing are for infections of the urinary tract, respiratory tract and skin and soft tissue. Studies indicate that a high proportion of these prescriptions are non-compliant with best prescribing guidelines. To date, a variety of interventions have been reported to address inappropriate prescribing and overuse of antibiotics but with mixed outcomes. This study aims to identify the impact of a set of sustainable, multimodal interventions in residential aged care targeting three common infection types. METHODS: This protocol details a 20-month stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial conducted across 18 RACFs (as 18 clusters). A multimodal multi-disciplinary set of interventions, the 'AMS ENGAGEMENT bundle', will be tailored to meet the identified needs of participating RACFs. The key elements of the intervention bundle include education for nurses and general practitioners, telehealth support and formation of an antimicrobial stewardship team in each facility. Prior to the randomised sequential introduction of the intervention, each site will act as its own control in relation to usual care processes for antibiotic use and stewardship. The primary outcome for this study will be antibiotic consumption measured using defined daily doses (DDDs). Cluster-level rates will be calculated using total occupied bed numbers within each RACF during the observation period as the denominator. Results will be expressed as rates per 1000 occupied bed days. An economic analysis will be conducted to compare the costs associated with the intervention to that of usual care. A comprehensive process evaluation will be conducted using the REAIM Framework, to enable learnings from the trial to inform sustainable improvements in this field. DISCUSSION: A structured AMS model of care, incorporating targeted interventions to optimise antimicrobial use in the RACF setting, is urgently needed and will be delivered by our trial. The trial will aim to empower clinicians, residents and families by providing a robust AMS programme to improve antibiotic-related health outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: US National Library of Medicine Clinical Trials.gov ( NCT04705259 ). Prospectively registered in 12th of January 2021.

Retrospective identification of latent subgroups of emergency department patients: A machine learning approach.

OBJECTIVE: This research aims to (i) identify latent subgroups of ED presentations in Australian public EDs using a data-driven approach and (ii) compare clinical, socio-demographic and time-related characteristics of ED presentations broadly using the subgroups. METHODS: We examined presentations to four public hospital EDs in Queensland from 2009 to 2014. An unsupervised machine learning algorithm, Clustering Large Applications, was used to cluster ED presentations. RESULTS: There were six subgroups common across the EDs, primarily distinguishable by age, and subsequently by triage category, ED length of stay, arrival mode, departure status and several time-related attributes. Around 10% to 30% of the total presentations had high resource utilisation, with half of these from older patients (55+ years). ED resource utilisation per population was highest among the oldest cohort (75+ years). Children and young adults more frequently presented to the ED outside general-practitioner hours, mostly on Sundays. Older persons were more likely to present at any time, rather than specific hours, days or seasons. ED service performance measured against commonly used access-target indicators were rarely satisfied for older people and frequently satisfied for children. CONCLUSION: Clustering Large Applications is effective in finding latent groups in large-scale mixed-type data, as demonstrated in the present study. Six types of ED presentations were identified and described using clinically relevant characteristics. The present study provides evidence for policy makers in Australia to develop alternative ED models of care tailored around the care needs of the differing groups of patients and thereby supports the sustainable delivery of acute healthcare.

Identifying and quantifying general practice-type emergency department presentations.

OBJECTIVE: This research aims to (i) identify general practice-type (GP-type) presentations to EDs in South-East Queensland, Australia and (ii) compare and quantify the clinical, socio-demographic and time-varying characteristics between GP-type and non-GP-type presentations. METHODS: Data were collected from presentations to four EDs in Queensland from 2009 to 2014. A modified version of the Australasian College for Emergency Medicine (ACEM) method for identifying GP-type ED presentations was used. RESULTS: The four EDs have different proportions of GP-type presentations, between 7% and 33%. Between 2009 and 2014, the amount of GP-type presentations increased in three EDs, by between 5% and 16%, and decreased by 30% in the other ED. Different holidays, for example, the public holidays over the Christmas to New Year period, impact GP-type presentations. Over 50% of GP-type presentations occurred in those aged 0-34 years, and <1% were aged 85+ years. Injury-related diagnoses made up around 37% of the GP-type presentations, and around 13% did not wait for a diagnosis, averaged over the EDs. GP-type presentations are more likely to present to EDs outside standard general practitioner hours. CONCLUSIONS: Existing methods for identifying GP-type presentations have drawbacks, and modified methods are required to better identify these types of presentations. Temporal effects not previously investigated in Australian studies, such as holidays, are significantly associated with GP-type presentations. These findings aid strategic planning and interventions to support review of GP-type presentations, instead, in primary-care facilities, and such interventions may be assistive in some EDs more than others.

Management of adult cardiac arrest in the COVID-19 era: consensus statement from the Australasian College for Emergency Medicine.

INTRODUCTION: The global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused significant worldwide disruption. Although Australia and New Zealand have not been affected as much as some other countries, resuscitation may still pose a risk to health care workers and necessitates a change to our traditional approach. This consensus statement for adult cardiac arrest in the setting of COVID-19 has been produced by the Australasian College for Emergency Medicine (ACEM) and aligns with national and international recommendations. MAIN RECOMMENDATIONS: In a setting of low community transmission, most cardiac arrests are not due to COVID-19. Early defibrillation saves lives and is not considered an aerosol generating procedure. Compression-only cardiopulmonary resuscitation is thought to be a low risk procedure and can be safely initiated with the patient's mouth and nose covered. All other resuscitative procedures are considered aerosol generating and require the use of airborne personal protective equipment (PPE). It is important to balance the appropriateness of resuscitation against the risk of infection. Methods to reduce nosocomial transmission of COVID-19 include a physical barrier such as a towel or mask over the patient's mouth and nose, appropriate use of PPE, minimising the staff involved in resuscitation, and use of mechanical chest compression devices when available. If COVID-19 significantly affects hospital resource availability, the ethics of resource allocation must be considered. CHANGES IN MANAGEMENT: The changes outlined in this document require a significant adaptation for many doctors, nurses and paramedics. It is critically important that all health care workers have regular PPE and advanced life support training, are able to access in situ simulation sessions, and receive extensive debriefing after actual resuscitations. This will ensure safe, timely and effective management of the patients with cardiac arrest in the COVID-19 era.

Forecasting daily counts of patient presentations in Australian emergency departments using statistical models with time-varying predictors.

OBJECTIVE: This research aimed to (i) assess the effects of time-varying predictors (day of the week, month, year, holiday, temperature) on daily ED presentations and (ii) compare the accuracy of five methods for forecasting ED presentations, including four statistical methods and a machine learning approach. METHODS: Predictors of ED presentations were assessed using generalised additive models (GAMs), generalised linear models, multiple linear regression models, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models and random forest. The accuracy of short-term (14 days), mid-term (30 days) and long-term (365 days) forecasts were compared using two measures of forecasting error. RESULTS: The data are the numbers of presentations to public hospital EDs in South-East Queensland, Australia, from 2009 to 2015. ED presentations are largely affected by year of presentation, and to a lesser extent by month, day of the week and holidays. Maximum daily temperature is also a significant predictor of ED presentations. Of the four statistical models considered, the GAM had the greatest forecasting accuracy, and produced consistent and coherent forecasts, likely due to its flexibility in modelling complex time-varying effects. The random forest machine learning approach had the lowest forecasting accuracy, likely due to overfitting the data. CONCLUSIONS: Calendar and temperature variables, not previously considered in the Australian literature, were found to significantly impact ED presentations. This study also demonstrates the potential of GAMs as a dual explanatory and forecasting method for the modelling, and more accurate prediction, of ED presentations.

Comparative emergency department resource utilisation across age groups.

Objectives The aim of the present study was to assess comparative emergency department (ED) resource utilisation across age groups. Methods A retrospective analysis of data collected in the National Non-admitted Patient Emergency Department Care Database was undertaken to assess comparative ED resource utilisation across six age groups (0-14, 15-35, 36-64, 65-74, 75-84 and ≥85 years) with previously used surrogate markers of ED resource utilisation. Results Older people had significantly higher resource utilisation for their individual ED episodes of care than younger people, with the effect increasing with advancing age. Conclusion With ED care of older people demonstrated to be more resource intensive than care for younger people, the projected increase in older person presentations anticipated with population aging will have a magnified effect on ED services. These predicted changes in demand for ED care will only be able to be optimally managed if Australian health policy, ED funding instruments and ED models of care are adjusted to take into account the specific care and resource needs of older people. What is known about the topic? Current Australian ED funding models do not adjust for patient age. Several regional studies have suggested higher resource utilisation of ED patients aged ≥65 years. Anticipated rapid population aging mandates that contribution of age to ED visit resource utilisation be further explored. What does this paper add? The present study of national Australian ED presentations compared ED resource utilisation across age groups using surrogate markers of ED cost. Older people were found to have significantly higher resource utilisation in the ED, with the effect increasing further with advancing age. What are the implications for practitioners? The higher resource utilisation of older people in the ED warrants a review of current ED funding models to ensure that they will continue to meet the needs of an aging population.

Quality indicators in the care of older persons in the emergency department: A systematic review of the literature.

OBJECTIVE: A systematic review of the literature was undertaken to assess the methodological quality of existing quality indicators (QIs) for the emergency department (ED) care of older persons. METHODS: MEDLINE, CINAHL, EMBASE and grey literature were searched. Articles were included if they addressed ED care of persons aged ≥65 years and defined a QI amenable to influence by ED providers. The methodological quality of QIs was assessed using relevant items from the Appraisal of Indicators through Research and Evaluation and the QUALIFY tools. RESULTS: Sixty-one articles were included in the review, with identification of 50 QIs meeting predefined inclusion criteria. Thirty-six of fifty ED QIs for older persons were process indicators. The appraisal instruments' total ratings ranged from 39 to 67%, with only 18 QIs scoring 50% or more for all five domains. CONCLUSION: There is a need for a balanced, methodologically robust set of QIs for care of older persons in the ED.

Trends and predicted trends in presentations of older people to Australian emergency departments: effects of demand growth, population aging and climate change.

Objectives The aim of the present study was to describe trends in and age and gender distributions of presentations of older people to Australian emergency departments (EDs) from July 2006 to June 2011, and to develop ED utilisation projections to 2050. Methods A retrospective analysis of data collected in the National Non-admitted Patient Emergency Department Care Database was undertaken to assess trends in ED presentations. Three standard Australian Bureau of Statistics population growth models, with and without adjustment for current trends in ED presentation growth and effects of climate change, were examined with projections of ED presentations across three age groups (0-64, 65-84 and ≥85 years) to 2050. Results From 2006-07 to 2010-11, ED presentations increased by 12.63%, whereas the Australian population over this time increased by only 7.26%. Rates of presentation per head of population were greatest among those aged ≥85 years. Projections of ED presentations to 2050 revealed that overall ED presentations are forecast to increase markedly, with the rate of increase being most marked for older people. Conclusion Growth in Australian ED presentations from 2006-07 to 2010-11 was greater than that expected from population growth alone. The predicted changes in demand for ED care will only be able to be optimally managed if Australian health policy, ED funding instruments and ED models of care are adjusted to take into account the specific care and resource needs of older people. What is known about the topic? Rapid population aging is anticipated over coming decades. International studies and specific local-level Australian studies have demonstrated significant growth in ED presentations. There have been no prior national-level Australian studies of ED presentation trends by age group. What does this paper add? The present study examined national ED presentation trends from July 2006 to June 2011, with specific emphasis on trends in presentation by age group. ED presentation growth was found to exceed population growth in all age groups. The rate of ED presentations per head of population was highest among those aged ≥85 years. ED utilisation projections to 2050, using standard Australian Bureau of Statistics population modelling, with and without adjustment for current ED growth, were developed. The projections demonstrated linear growth in ED presentation for those aged 0-84 years, with growth in ED presentations of the ≥85 year age group demonstrating marked acceleration after 2030. What are the implications for practitioners? Growth in ED presentations exceeding population growth suggests that current models of acute health care delivery require review to ensure that optimal care is delivered in the most fiscally efficient manner. Trends in presentation of older people emphasise the imperative for ED workforce planning and education in care of this complex patient cohort, and the requirement to review funding models to incentivise investment in ED avoidance and substitutive care models targeting older people.