Unsupervised multimodal modeling of cognitive and brain health trajectories for early dementia prediction.

Predicting the course of neurodegenerative disorders early has potential to greatly improve clinical management and patient outcomes. A key challenge for early prediction in real-world clinical settings is the lack of labeled data (i.e., clinical diagnosis). In contrast to supervised classification approaches that require labeled data, we propose an unsupervised multimodal trajectory modeling (MTM) approach based on a mixture of state space models that captures changes in longitudinal data (i.e., trajectories) and stratifies individuals without using clinical diagnosis for model training. MTM learns the relationship between states comprising expensive, invasive biomarkers (ß-amyloid, grey matter density) and readily obtainable cognitive observations. MTM training on trajectories stratifies individuals into clinically meaningful clusters more reliably than MTM training on baseline data alone and is robust to missing data (i.e., cognitive data alone or single assessments). Extracting an individualized cognitive health index (i.e., MTM-derived cluster membership index) allows us to predict progression to AD more precisely than standard clinical assessments (i.e., cognitive tests or MRI scans alone). Importantly, MTM generalizes successfully from research cohort to real-world clinical data from memory clinic patients with missing data, enhancing the clinical utility of our approach. Thus, our multimodal trajectory modeling approach provides a cost-effective and non-invasive tool for early dementia prediction without labeled data (i.e., clinical diagnosis) with strong potential for translation to clinical practice.

Artificial intelligence for diagnostic and prognostic neuroimaging in dementia: A systematic review.

INTRODUCTION: Artificial intelligence (AI) and neuroimaging offer new opportunities for diagnosis and prognosis of dementia. METHODS: We systematically reviewed studies reporting AI for neuroimaging in diagnosis and/or prognosis of cognitive neurodegenerative diseases. RESULTS: A total of 255 studies were identified. Most studies relied on the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative dataset. Algorithmic classifiers were the most commonly used AI method (48%) and discriminative models performed best for differentiating Alzheimer's disease from controls. The accuracy of algorithms varied with the patient cohort, imaging modalities, and stratifiers used. Few studies performed validation in an independent cohort. DISCUSSION: The literature has several methodological limitations including lack of sufficient algorithm development descriptions and standard definitions. We make recommendations to improve model validation including addressing key clinical questions, providing sufficient description of AI methods and validating findings in independent datasets. Collaborative approaches between experts in AI and medicine will help achieve the promising potential of AI tools in practice. HIGHLIGHTS: There has been a rapid expansion in the use of machine learning for diagnosis and prognosis in neurodegenerative disease Most studies (71%) relied on the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset with no other individual dataset used more than five times There has been a recent rise in the use of more complex discriminative models (e.g., neural networks) that performed better than other classifiers for classification of AD vs healthy controls We make recommendations to address methodological considerations, addressing key clinical questions, and validation We also make recommendations for the field more broadly to standardize outcome measures, address gaps in the literature, and monitor sources of bias.

The Discriminative Kalman Filter for Bayesian Filtering with Nonlinear and Nongaussian Observation Models.

The Kalman filter provides a simple and efficient algorithm to compute the posterior distribution for state-space models where both the latent state and measurement models are linear and gaussian. Extensions to the Kalman filter, including the extended and unscented Kalman filters, incorporate linearizations for models where the observation model p(observation|state) is nonlinear. We argue that in many cases, a model for p(state|observation) proves both easier to learn and more accurate for latent state estimation. Approximating p(state|observation) as gaussian leads to a new filtering algorithm, the discriminative Kalman filter (DKF), which can perform well even when p(observation|state) is highly nonlinear and/or nongaussian. The approximation, motivated by the Bernstein-von Mises theorem, improves as the dimensionality of the observations increases. The DKF has computational complexity similar to the Kalman filter, allowing it in some cases to perform much faster than particle filters with similar precision, while better accounting for nonlinear and nongaussian observation models than Kalman-based extensions. When the observation model must be learned from training data prior to filtering, off-the-shelf nonlinear and nonparametric regression techniques can provide a gaussian model for p(observation|state) that cleanly integrates with the DKF. As part of the BrainGate2 clinical trial, we successfully implemented gaussian process regression with the DKF framework in a brain-computer interface to provide real-time, closed-loop cursor control to a person with a complete spinal cord injury. In this letter, we explore the theory underlying the DKF, exhibit some illustrative examples, and outline potential extensions.

Robust Closed-Loop Control of a Cursor in a Person with Tetraplegia using Gaussian Process Regression.

Intracortical brain computer interfaces can enable individuals with paralysis to control external devices through voluntarily modulated brain activity. Decoding quality has been previously shown to degrade with signal nonstationarities-specifically, the changes in the statistics of the data between training and testing data sets. This includes changes to the neural tuning profiles and baseline shifts in firing rates of recorded neurons, as well as nonphysiological noise. While progress has been made toward providing long-term user control via decoder recalibration, relatively little work has been dedicated to making the decoding algorithm more resilient to signal nonstationarities. Here, we describe how principled kernel selection with gaussian process regression can be used within a Bayesian filtering framework to mitigate the effects of commonly encountered nonstationarities. Given a supervised training set of (neural features, intention to move in a direction)-pairs, we use gaussian process regression to predict the intention given the neural data. We apply kernel embedding for each neural feature with the standard radial basis function. The multiple kernels are then summed together across each neural dimension, which allows the kernel to effectively ignore large differences that occur only in a single feature. The summed kernel is used for real-time predictions of the posterior mean and variance under a gaussian process framework. The predictions are then filtered using the discriminative Kalman filter to produce an estimate of the neural intention given the history of neural data. We refer to the multiple kernel approach combined with the discriminative Kalman filter as the MK-DKF. We found that the MK-DKF decoder was more resilient to nonstationarities frequently encountered in-real world settings yet provided similar performance to the currently used Kalman decoder. These results demonstrate a method by which neural decoding can be made more resistant to nonstationarities.

Rapid calibration of an intracortical brain-computer interface for people with tetraplegia.

OBJECTIVE: Brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) can enable individuals with tetraplegia to communicate and control external devices. Though much progress has been made in improving the speed and robustness of neural control provided by intracortical BCIs, little research has been devoted to minimizing the amount of time spent on decoder calibration. APPROACH: We investigated the amount of time users needed to calibrate decoders and achieve performance saturation using two markedly different decoding algorithms: the steady-state Kalman filter, and a novel technique using Gaussian process regression (GP-DKF). MAIN RESULTS: Three people with tetraplegia gained rapid closed-loop neural cursor control and peak, plateaued decoder performance within 3 min of initializing calibration. We also show that a BCI-naïve user (T5) was able to rapidly attain closed-loop neural cursor control with the GP-DKF using self-selected movement imagery on his first-ever day of closed-loop BCI use, acquiring a target 37 s after initiating calibration. SIGNIFICANCE: These results demonstrate the potential for an intracortical BCI to be used immediately after deployment by people with paralysis, without the need for user learning or extensive system calibration.