The prospects for the developing world: a review of recent forecasts.

PIP: This article addresses the future aspects of developing countries during the 1980s. To do so it has drawn on recent reports about the future of the world's economy. Even widespread failures of harvests and the increase in the price of oil in the 1970s did not diminish the optimistic attitude about the future in the 1980s. The original World Bank projections predicted a 5.7%/annum increase in gross domestic product and a substantial reduction in the level of poverty. The 1980 report paints a very pessimistic picture due to: the structural changes which the world economy is undergoing (changes in demand and production, slower economies, declines in productivity growth, etc.), world interdependence, and reduction of world resources. Other reports and studies have arrived at the same general conclusions. The predictions of the authors of "Interfutures" are also marked with considerable pessimism. They said that future uncertainties could lead to political rifts as well as economic and social problems. The Brandt commission report sketches a bleak picture for the world economy. Despite the consensus among the varous reports concerning the future in the developing nations, there are differences of opinion concerning the ability of these nations to adjust to the difficult circumstances. Certain actions must be taken immediately--generate more resources for development, measures to reduce oil and food imports, long-term goals should include improvements in administration, increasing agricultural productivity, and better utilizing available resources. The Brandt Commission is less optimistic about the world's ability to help the poor out of its troubles. The OECD targets sub-Saharan Africa as the area to be dealt with immediately. Basically, these developing nations will not be able to rely on industrialization and cheap energy for their growth.^ieng

Rural development: the real issues.

PIP: The objectives of rural development are clear -- to improve the economic and social life of the rural poor -- but there remains some uncertainty about the contents of this strategy. To formulate rural development strategies it is necessary to ask and answer what may be termed the "what" and "how" questions. The "what" questions are concerned with the types of activities that must be undertaken in order to reach the rural poor and develop their human potential. The "how" questions are concerned with devising the means for implementing rural development programs. The real issues in rural development at this time are concerned with formulating and answering the "what" and "how" questions. The perceptions of what should be done is dependent upon an estimate of the magnitude of rural poverty and the way in which its nature is understood. There is increasing evidence to suggest that even when women are identified as a separate target group, the programs designed to reach them may offer little help. Organizations are essential for promoting equity within societies. For the underprivileged segments of the society to find a voice in the decision-making process, they need to overcome the inhibiting influence of the elite. The inability to participate in the production process to the extent that it would yield to their social, economic and political satisfaction is pushing many rural poor to migrate.^ieng