Genetic variation over space and time: analyses of extinct and remnant lake trout populations in the Upper Great Lakes.

Lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) in the upper Laurentian Great Lakes of North America experienced striking reductions in abundance and distribution during the mid-twentieth century. Complete collapse of populations was documented for Lake Michigan, and a few remnant populations remained only in lakes Huron and Superior. Using DNA obtained from historical scale collections, we analysed patterns of genetic diversity at five microsatellite loci from archived historical samples representing 15 populations (range 1940-1959) and from three contemporary remnant populations across lakes Huron and Superior (total n = 893). Demographic declines in abundance and the extirpation of native lake trout populations during the past 40 years have resulted in the loss of genetic diversity between lakes owing to extirpation of Lake Michigan populations and a temporal trend for reduction in allelic richness in the populations of lakes Superior and Huron. Naturally reproducing populations in Lake Superior, which had been considered to be remnants of historical populations, and which were believed to be responsible for the resurgence of lake trout numbers and distribution, have probably been affected by hatchery supplementation.

Comparisons of likelihood and machine learning methods of individual classification.

Classification methods used in machine learning (e.g., artificial neural networks, decision trees, and k-nearest neighbor clustering) are rarely used with population genetic data. We compare different nonparametric machine learning techniques with parametric likelihood estimations commonly employed in population genetics for purposes of assigning individuals to their population of origin ("assignment tests"). Classifier accuracy was compared across simulated data sets representing different levels of population differentiation (low and high F(ST)), number of loci surveyed (5 and 10), and allelic diversity (average of three or eight alleles per locus). Empirical data for the lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) exhibiting levels of population differentiation comparable to those used in simulations were examined to further evaluate and compare classification methods. Classification error rates associated with artificial neural networks and likelihood estimators were lower for simulated data sets compared to k-nearest neighbor and decision tree classifiers over the entire range of parameters considered. Artificial neural networks only marginally outperformed the likelihood method for simulated data (0-2.8% lower error rates). The relative performance of each machine learning classifier improved relative likelihood estimators for empirical data sets, suggesting an ability to "learn" and utilize properties of empirical genotypic arrays intrinsic to each population. Likelihood-based estimation methods provide a more accessible option for reliable assignment of individuals to the population of origin due to the intricacies in development and evaluation of artificial neural networks.

High levels of MHC class II allelic diversity in lake trout from Lake Superior.

Sequence variation in a 216 bp portion of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) II B1 domain was examined in 74 individual lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) from different locations in Lake Superior. Forty-three alleles were obtained which encoded 71-72 amino acids of the mature protein. These sequences were compared with previous data obtained from five Pacific salmon species and Atlantic salmon using the same primers. Although all of the lake trout alleles clustered together in the neighbor-joining analysis of amino acid sequences, one amino acid allelic lineage was shared with Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar), a species in another genus which probably diverged from Salvelinus more than 10-20 million years ago. As shown previously in other salmonids, the level of nonsynonymous nucleotide substitution (dN) exceeded the level of synonymous substitution (dS). The level of nucleotide diversity at the MHC class II B1 locus was considerably higher in lake trout than in the Pacific salmon (genus Oncorhynchus). These results are consistent with the hypothesis that lake trout colonized Lake Superior from more than one refuge following the Wisconsin glaciation. Recent population bottlenecks may have reduced nucleotide diversity in Pacific salmon populations.