Validation of the (Troponin-only) Manchester ACS decision aid with a contemporary cardiac troponin I assay.

OBJECTIVES: The Manchester Acute Coronary Syndromes (MACS) decision aid can 'rules in' and 'rule out' acute coronary syndromes (ACS) by combining a patient's symptoms with the results of a single blood test taken at the time of arrival in the Emergency Department (ED). The original model (MACS) included two biomarkers: high sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) and heart-type fatty acid binding protein (h-FABP). A refined model without h-FABP was found to have comparable sensitivity but greater specificity. We sought to validate MACS and T-MACS using the contemporary Siemens Advia Centaur cardiac troponin I assay to increase usability in practice. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis from prospective diagnostic cohort study at Stepping Hill Hospital, United Kingdom. Patients presenting with chest pain of suspected cardiac nature warranting rule out for ACS were included. All patients underwent hs-cTnT testing at least 12h after peak symptoms. The primary outcome was a diagnosis of ACS, defined as either prevalent acute myocardial infarction (AMI) or incident major adverse cardiac events (death, AMI or coronary revascularization) within 30days. RESULTS: Of 405 included patients, 76 (18.8%) had ACS. MACS and T-MACS had similar C-statistics (0.94 for each, p=0.36) and sensitivity (difference 1.3%, 95% CI -1.3 to 3.9%, p=1.00) but T-MACS had significantly greater specificity (difference 16.7%, 95% CI 14.6-18.9%, p<0.0001). T-MACS and MACS would have allowed 36.3% and 22.5% patients to be immediately discharged respectively. Of patients classified as 'very low risk', none had ACS when MACS was used compared to one (0.7%) with T-MACS. CONCLUSION: Both MACS and T-MACS effectively ruled out ACS even with a contemporary troponin I assay and could be used to reduce unnecessary hospital admissions.

Troponin-only Manchester Acute Coronary Syndromes (T-MACS) decision aid: single biomarker re-derivation and external validation in three cohorts.

BACKGROUND: The original Manchester Acute Coronary Syndromes model (MACS) 'rules in' and 'rules out' acute coronary syndromes (ACS) using high sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) and heart-type fatty acid binding protein (H-FABP) measured at admission. The latter is not always available. We aimed to refine and validate MACS as Troponin-only Manchester Acute Coronary Syndromes (T-MACS), cutting down the biomarkers to just hs-cTnT. METHODS: We present secondary analyses from four prospective diagnostic cohort studies including patients presenting to the ED with suspected ACS. Data were collected and hs-cTnT measured on arrival. The primary outcome was ACS, defined as prevalent acute myocardial infarction (AMI) or incident death, AMI or coronary revascularisation within 30 days. T-MACS was built in one cohort (derivation set) and validated in three external cohorts (validation set). RESULTS: At the 'rule out' threshold, in the derivation set (n=703), T-MACS had 99.3% (95% CI 97.3% to 99.9%) negative predictive value (NPV) and 98.7% (95.3%-99.8%) sensitivity for ACS, 'ruling out' 37.7% patients (specificity 47.6%, positive predictive value (PPV) 34.0%). In the validation set (n=1459), T-MACS had 99.3% (98.3%-99.8%) NPV and 98.1% (95.2%-99.5%) sensitivity, 'ruling out' 40.4% (n=590) patients (specificity 47.0%, PPV 23.9%). T-MACS would 'rule in' 10.1% and 4.7% patients in the respective sets, of which 100.0% and 91.3% had ACS. C-statistics for the original and refined rules were similar (T-MACS 0.91 vs MACS 0.90 on validation). CONCLUSIONS: T-MACS could 'rule out' ACS in 40% of patients, while 'ruling in' 5% at highest risk using a single hs-cTnT measurement on arrival. As a clinical decision aid, T-MACS could therefore help to conserve healthcare resources.

Chest pain: if it hurts a lot, is heart attack more likely?

BACKGROUND: In previous studies including patients with suspected cardiac chest pain, those who had acute myocardial infarction (AMI) reported more severe chest pain than those without AMI. However, many patients with AMI present with very mild pain or discomfort. We aimed to investigate whether peak pain severity, as reported by patients in the Emergency Department, has any potential role in the risk stratification of patients with suspected cardiac chest pain. METHODS: In this secondary analysis from a prospective diagnostic cohort study, we included patients presenting to the Emergency Department with suspected cardiac chest pain. Patients were asked to report their maximum pain severity using a 11-point numeric rating scale at the time of initial presentation. The primary outcome was a diagnosis of AMI, adjudicated by two independent investigators on the basis of reference standard (12 h) troponin testing. RESULTS: Of the 455 patients included in this analysis, 79 (17.4%) had AMI. Patients with AMI had marginally higher pain scores (eight, interquartile range 5-8) than those without AMI (seven, interquartile range 6-8, P=0.03). However, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the numeric rating scale pain score was 0.58 (95% confidence interval 0.51-0.65), indicating poor overall diagnostic accuracy. AMI occurred in 12.1% of patients with pain score 0-3, 17.1% with pain score 4-6 and 18.8% with pain score 7-10. Among patients with AMI, pain score was not correlated with 12-h troponin levels (r=-0.001, P=0.99). CONCLUSION: Pain score has limited diagnostic value for AMI. Scores should guide analgesia but shift the probability of AMI very little, and should not guide other clinical management.

High-sensitivity cardiac troponin t concentrations below the limit of detection to exclude acute myocardial infarction: a prospective evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Initial reports suggest that concentrations of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) (Roche Diagnostics Elecsys(®)) below the limit of blank (LoB) (3 ng/L) or limit of detection (LoD) (5 ng/L) of the assay have almost 100% negative predictive value (NPV) for acute myocardial infarction (AMI), particularly among patients without electrocardiograph (ECG) evidence of ischemia. We aimed to prospectively validate those findings. METHODS: We included adults presenting to the emergency department with suspected cardiac chest pain. Standard troponin T (cTnT) and hs-cTnT (both Roche Elecsys) were tested in samples drawn on arrival. The primary outcome was AMI, adjudicated by 2 investigators on the basis of clinical data and ≥12-h cTnT testing. We also evaluated diagnostic performance when AMI was readjudicated on the basis of hs-cTnT (≥12-h) concentrations. RESULTS: Of 463 patients included, 79 (17.1%) had AMI. Twenty-four patients (5.2%) had hs-cTnT concentrations below the LoB, although none had AMI. Ninety-six patients (20.7%) had hs-cTnT concentrations below the LoD, 1 of whom had AMI. Thus, diagnostic sensitivity was 98.7% (95% CI 87.5%-98.6%) and NPV was 99.0% (95% CI 94.3%-100.0%). Of the 17.3% (n = 80) patients with hs-cTnT below the LoD and no ECG ischemia, none had AMI. Thus, diagnostic sensitivity was 100.0% (95% CI 95.4%-100.0%) and NPV was 100.0% (95% CI 95.5%-100.0%). Sensitivity and NPV were maintained when AMI was readjudicated on the basis of hs-cTnT. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings confirm that patients with nonischemic ECG and undetectable hs-cTnT at presentation have a very low probability of AMI, although the proportion of patients affected was smaller than in previous research.

Rapid exclusion of acute myocardial infarction in patients with undetectable troponin using a sensitive troponin I assay.

OBJECTIVE: With a high-sensitivity troponin assay, it may be possible to exclude acute myocardial infarction with a single blood test on arrival in the emergency department by using a novel 'rule out' cut-off set at the limit of detection of the assay. We aimed to determine whether this can also be achieved using a contemporary sensitive troponin assay that does not meet 'high-sensitivity' criteria. METHODS: In a prospective diagnostic cohort study, we included patients presenting to the emergency department with suspected cardiac chest pain. For this secondary analysis, serum samples drawn on arrival were tested using a contemporary sensitive troponin I assay (s-cTnI; Siemens Ultra ADVIA Centaur, 99th percentile 40 ng/L, limit of detection 6 ng/L). Acute myocardial infarction was adjudicated by two independent investigators based on reference standard troponin testing ≥12 h after symptom onset. RESULTS: Of 414 participants, 70 (16.9%) had acute myocardial infarction and 205 (49.5%) had initial s-cTnI concentrations below the limit of detection. Using the limit of detection as a 'rule out' cut-off gave a sensitivity of 94.3% (95% CI 86.0-98.4%) for acute myocardial infarction. If only patients with s-cTnI below the limit of detection and no electrocardiogram ischaemia were considered to have acute myocardial infarction 'ruled out' (41.8% of the cohort, n = 174), sensitivity would rise to 97.1% (90.1-99.7%) and negative predictive value to 98.8% (95.9-99.9%). CONCLUSIONS: Acute myocardial infarction cannot be excluded in patients with s-cTnI concentrations below the limit of detection using the contemporary sensitive assay evaluated. Future work with this assay should focus on serial sampling over 1-3 h and combination with clinical information and/or additional biomarkers.

The Manchester Acute Coronary Syndromes (MACS) decision rule: validation with a new automated assay for heart-type fatty acid binding protein.

OBJECTIVE: The Manchester Acute Coronary Syndromes (MACS) decision rule may enable acute coronary syndromes to be immediately 'ruled in' or 'ruled out' in the emergency department. The rule incorporates heart-type fatty acid binding protein (h-FABP) and high sensitivity troponin T levels. The rule was previously validated using a semiautomated h-FABP assay that was not practical for clinical implementation. We aimed to validate the rule with an automated h-FABP assay that could be used clinically. METHODS: In this prospective diagnostic cohort study we included patients presenting to the emergency department with suspected cardiac chest pain. Serum drawn on arrival was tested for h-FABP using an automated immunoturbidimetric assay (Randox) and high sensitivity troponin T (Roche). The primary outcome, a diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction (AMI), was adjudicated based on 12 h troponin testing. A secondary outcome, major adverse cardiac events (MACE; death, AMI, revascularisation or new coronary stenosis), was determined at 30 days. RESULTS: Of the 456 patients included, 78 (17.1%) had AMI and 97 (21.3%) developed MACE. Using the automated h-FABP assay, the MACS rule had the same C-statistic for MACE as the original rule (0.91; 95% CI 0.88 to 0.92). 18.9% of patients were identified as 'very low risk' and thus eligible for immediate discharge with no missed AMIs and a 2.3% incidence of MACE (n=2, both coronary stenoses). 11.1% of patients were classed as 'high-risk' and had a 92.0% incidence of MACE. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings validate the performance of a refined MACS rule incorporating an automated h-FABP assay, facilitating use in clinical settings. The effectiveness of this refined rule should be verified in an interventional trial prior to implementation. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: UK CRN 8376.

Can emergency physicians 'rule in' and 'rule out' acute myocardial infarction with clinical judgement?

OBJECTIVE: To determine the diagnostic accuracy of emergency physician gestalt in emergency department (ED) patients with suspected cardiac chest pain, both alone and in combination with initial troponin level and ECG findings. METHODS: We prospectively included patients presenting to the ED with suspected cardiac chest pain. Clinicians recorded their 'gestalt' at the time of presentation using a five-point Likert scale, blinded to outcome. Troponin T and high-sensitivity troponin T (hs-cTnT; both Roche Diagnostics Elecsys) levels were measured in admission blood samples. All patients underwent troponin testing at least 12 h after peak symptoms. The primary outcome was acute myocardial infarction (AMI). RESULTS: 458 patients were included in this study, 81 (17.7%) of whom had AMI. Clinician gestalt alone had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.76 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.82) for AMI. Immediately discharging patients with normal initial troponin and ECG in whom the clinician felt the diagnosis was 'probably not' or 'definitely not' acute coronary syndrome (ACS) would have avoided admission for 23.1% (95% CI 19% to 28%) patients with 100% sensitivity (95% CI 95.6% to 100%). With hs-cTnT, 100% sensitivity could have been achieved even if only patients with 'probable' or 'definite' ACS were investigated further, which would have allowed 41.7% patients to be discharged immediately. CONCLUSIONS: Gestalt alone cannot be used to 'rule in' or 'rule out' ACS. By combining clinician gestalt with the admission ECG and troponin level, we found 100% sensitivity without the need for serial troponin testing. These findings have the potential to reduce unnecessary hospital admissions for suspected ACS but must be prospectively validated before considering clinical implementation.

Cerebrospinal fluid total protein cannot reliably distinguish true subarachnoid haemorrhage from other causes of raised cerebrospinal fluid net bilirubin and net oxyhaemoglobin absorbances.

BACKGROUND: In cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) spectrophotometry, if the net bilirubin absorbance (NBA) and net oxyhaemoglobin absorbance (NOA) are both raised with a visible oxyhaemoglobin peak, the revised national guidelines for analysis of CSF bilirubin advise interpreting the results as 'Consistent with subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH)' regardless of the CSF total protein concentration of the specimen. We wanted to study the range of CSF total protein concentrations found in confirmed SAH to establish if the CSF total protein value can give further guidance on the likelihood of SAH. METHODS: Consecutive cases from five different hospital sites were included if the CSF NBA was greater than 0.007 AU and the NOA was greater than 0.02 AU with a visible oxyhaemoglobin peak. For the cases identified, the laboratory information management system and patient records were interrogated to identify the total protein concentration of the CSF specimen and whether SAH had ultimately been confirmed or excluded by other methods and supporting evidence. RESULTS: Results from 132 patients were included. The CSF total protein range in confirmed SAH was 0.23-3.08 g/L with a median concentration of 0.7 g/L (n = 51). In the SAH excluded group, the CSF total protein range was 0.43-29 g/L with a median concentration of 1.9 g/L (n = 81). CONCLUSIONS: Although confirmed SAH was not associated with the very highest concentrations of CSF total protein, a definite CSF protein cut-off concentration above which SAH could reliably be excluded cannot be recommended.

The Manchester Acute Coronary Syndromes (MACS) decision rule for suspected cardiac chest pain: derivation and external validation.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to derive and validate a clinical decision rule (CDR) for suspected cardiac chest pain in the emergency department (ED). Incorporating information available at the time of first presentation, this CDR would effectively risk-stratify patients and immediately identify: (A) patients for whom hospitalisation may be safely avoided; and (B) high-risk patients, facilitating judicious use of resources. METHODS: In two sequential prospective observational cohort studies at heterogeneous centres, we included ED patients with suspected cardiac chest pain. We recorded clinical features and drew blood on arrival. The primary outcome was major adverse cardiac events (MACE) (death, prevalent or incident acute myocardial infarction, coronary revascularisation or new coronary stenosis >50%) within 30 days. The CDR was derived by logistic regression, considering reliable (κ>0.6) univariate predictors (p<0.05) for inclusion. RESULTS: In the derivation study (n=698) we derived a CDR including eight variables (high sensitivity troponin T; heart-type fatty acid binding protein; ECG ischaemia; diaphoresis observed; vomiting; pain radiation to right arm/shoulder; worsening angina; hypotension), which had a C-statistic of 0.95 (95% CI 0.93 to 0.97) implying near perfect diagnostic performance. On external validation (n=463) the CDR identified 27.0% of patients as 'very low risk' and potentially suitable for discharge from the ED. 0.0% of these patients had prevalent acute myocardial infarction and 1.6% developed MACE (n=2; both coronary stenoses without revascularisation). 9.9% of patients were classified as 'high-risk', 95.7% of whom developed MACE. CONCLUSIONS: The Manchester Acute Coronary Syndromes (MACS) rule has the potential to safely reduce unnecessary hospital admissions and facilitate judicious use of high dependency resources.

Revised national guidelines for analysis of cerebrospinal fluid for bilirubin in suspected subarachnoid haemorrhage.

It is crucially important to detect subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) in all patients in whom it has occurred to select patients for angiography and preventative surgery. A computerized tomography (CT) scan is positive in up to 98% of patients with SAH presenting within 12 h, but is positive in only 50% of those presenting within one week. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) bilirubin spectrophotometry can be used to determine the need for angiography in those few CT-negative patients in whom clinical suspicion of SAH remains high; it may remain positive up to two weeks after the event. A lumbar puncture (LP) should only be performed >12 h after the onset of presenting symptoms. Whenever possible collect sequential specimens. Always ensure that the least blood-stained CSF sample taken (usually the last) is sent for bilirubin analysis. Protect the CSF from light and avoid vacuum tube transport systems, if possible. Always use spectrophotometry in preference to visual inspection. All CSF specimens are precious and should always be analysed unless insufficient sample is received. Centrifuge the specimen at >2000 rpm for 5 min as soon as possible after receipt in the laboratory. Store the supernatant at 4 degrees C in the dark until analysis. An increase in CSF bilirubin is the key finding, which supports the occurrence of SAH but is not specific for this. In most positive cases, bilirubin will occur with oxyhaemoglobin.