ABSTRACT
Ongoing resurgence affects Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) via bradyseism, i.e. a series of ground deformation episodes accompanied by increases in shallow seismicity. In this study, we perform a mathematical analysis of the GPS and seismic data in the instrumental catalogs from 2000 to 2020, and a comparison of them to the preceding data from 1983 to 1999. We clearly identify and characterize two overlying trends, i.e. a decennial-like acceleration and cyclic oscillations with various periods. In particular, we show that all the signals have been accelerating since 2005, and 90-97% of their increase has occurred since 2011, 40-80% since 2018. Nevertheless, the seismic and ground deformation signals evolved differently-the seismic count increased faster than the GPS data since 2011, and even more so since 2015, growing faster than an exponential function The ground deformation has a linearized rate slope, i.e. acceleration, of 0.6 cm/yr2 and 0.3 cm/yr2 from 2000 to 2020, respectively for the vertical (RITE GPS) and the horizontal (ACAE GPS) components. In addition, all annual rates show alternating speed-ups and slow-downs, consistent between the signals. We find seven major rate maxima since 2000, one every 2.8-3.5 years, with secondary maxima at fractions of the intervals. A cycle with longer period of 6.5-9 years is also identified. Finally, we apply the probabilistic failure forecast method, a nonlinear regression that calculates the theoretical time limit of the signals going to infinity (interpreted here as a critical state potentially reached by the volcano), conditional on the continuation of the observed nonlinear accelerations. Since 2000, we perform a retrospective analysis of the temporal evolution of these forecasts which highlight the periods of more intense acceleration. The failure forecast method applied on the seismic count from 2001 to 2020 produces upper time limits of [0, 3, 11] years (corresponding to the 5th, 50th and 95th percentiles, respectively), significantly shorter than those based on the GPS data, e.g. [0, 6, 21] years. Such estimates, only valid under the model assumption of continuation of the ongoing decennial-like acceleration, warn to keep the guard up on the future evolution of Campi Flegrei caldera.
ABSTRACT
Tephra is a unique volcanic product with an unparalleled role in understanding past eruptions, long-term behavior of volcanoes, and the effects of volcanism on climate and the environment. Tephra deposits also provide spatially widespread, high-resolution time-stratigraphic markers across a range of sedimentary settings and thus are used in numerous disciplines (e.g., volcanology, climate science, archaeology). Nonetheless, the study of tephra deposits is challenged by a lack of standardization that inhibits data integration across geographic regions and disciplines. We present comprehensive recommendations for tephra data gathering and reporting that were developed by the tephra science community to guide future investigators and to ensure that sufficient data are gathered for interoperability. Recommendations include standardized field and laboratory data collection, reporting and correlation guidance. These are organized as tabulated lists of key metadata with their definition and purpose. They are system independent and usable for template, tool, and database development. This standardized framework promotes consistent documentation and archiving, fosters interdisciplinary communication, and improves effectiveness of data sharing among diverse communities of researchers.
Subject(s)
ClimateABSTRACT
Statistical emulators are a key tool for rapidly producing probabilistic hazard analysis of geophysical processes. Given output data computed for a relatively small number of parameter inputs, an emulator interpolates the data, providing the expected value of the output at untried inputs and an estimate of error at that point. In this work, we propose to fit Gaussian Process emulators to the output from a volcanic ash transport model, Ash3d. Our goal is to predict the simulated volcanic ash thickness from Ash3d at a location of interest using the emulator. Our approach is motivated by two challenges to fitting emulators-characterizing the input wind field and interactions between that wind field and variable grain sizes. We resolve these challenges by using physical knowledge on tephra dispersal. We propose new physically motivated variables as inputs and use normalized output as the response for fitting the emulator. Subsetting based on the initial conditions is also critical in our emulator construction. Simulation studies characterize the accuracy and efficiency of our emulator construction and also reveal its current limitations. Our work represents the first emulator construction for volcanic ash transport models with considerations of the simulated physical process.
