Integrating Categorization and Decision-Making.

Though individual categorization or decision processes have been studied separately in many previous investigations, few studies have investigated how they interact by using a two-stage task of first categorizing and then deciding. To address this issue, we investigated a categorization-decision task in two experiments. In both, participants were shown six faces varying in width, first asked to categorize the faces, and then decide a course of action for each face. Each experiment was designed to include three groups, and for each group, we manipulated the probabilistic contingencies between stimulus, category assignments, and decision consequences. For each group, each participant received three different sequences of category response, category feedback, decision response, and decision feedback. We found that participants were only partially responsive in the appropriate directions to the contingencies assigned to each group. Comparisons of results from different sequences provided evidence for empirical interference effects of categorization on decisions. The empirical interference effect is defined as the difference between the probability of taking a hostile action in decision-alone conditions and the total probability of taking a hostile action in categorization-decision conditions. To test competing accounts for multiple empirical results, including two-stage choice probabilities and empirical interference effects, we compared a quantum cognition model versus a two-stage exemplar categorization model at both aggregate and individual levels. Using a Bayesian information criterion, we found that the quantum model provided an overall better model fit than the exemplar model. Although both models predicted empirical interference effects, the exemplar model was able to generate probabilistic deviation by incorporating category information of the first stage into the feature representation of the subsequent decision stage, while the quantum model produced interference effect by superposition, measurement, and quantum entanglement.

Beliefs, Actions, and Rationality in Strategical Decisions.

A puzzling finding from research on strategical decision making concerns the effect that predictions have on future actions. Simply stating a prediction about an opponent changes the total probability (pooled over predictions) of a player taking a future action compared to not stating any prediction. This is called an interference effect. We first review five different findings of interference effects from past empirical work using the prisoner's dilemma game. Then we report interference effects obtained from a new experiment in which 493 participants played a six-stage centipede game against a computer agent. During the first stage of the game, the total probability following prediction for cooperation was higher than making a decision alone; during later stages, the total probability following prediction for cooperation was lower than making a decision alone. These interference effects are difficult to explain using traditional economic models, and instead these results suggest turning to a quantum cognition approach to strategic decision making. Toward this end, we develop a belief-action entanglement model that provides a good account of the empirical results.

Quantum Cognition.

Uncertainty is an intrinsic part of life; most events, affairs, and questions are uncertain. A key problem in behavioral sciences is how the mind copes with uncertain information. Quantum probability theory offers a set of principles for inference, which align well with intuition about psychological processes in certain cases: cases when it appears that inference is contextual, the mental state changes as a result of previous judgments, or there is interference between different possibilities. We motivate the use of quantum theory in cognition and its key characteristics. For each of these characteristics, we review relevant quantum cognitive models and empirical support. The scope of quantum cognitive models encompasses fallacies in decision-making (such as the conjunction fallacy or the disjunction effect), question order effects, conceptual combination, evidence accumulation, perception, over-/underdistribution effects in memory, and more. Quantum models often formalize psychological ideas previously expressed in heuristic terms, allow unified explanations of previously disparate findings, and have led to several surprising, novel predictions. We also cast a critical eye on quantum models and consider some of their shortcomings and issues regarding their further development.

Temporal oscillations in preference strength provide evidence for an open system model of constructed preference.

The decision process is often conceptualized as a constructive process in which a decision maker accumulates information to form preferences about the choice options and ultimately make a response. Here we examine how these constructive processes unfold by tracking dynamic changes in preference strength. Across two experiments, we observed that mean preference strength systematically oscillated over time and found that eliciting a choice early in time strongly affected the pattern of preference oscillation later in time. Preferences following choices oscillated between being stronger than those without prior choice and being weaker than those without choice. To account for these phenomena, we develop an open system dynamic model which merges the dynamics of Markov random walk processes with those of quantum walk processes. This model incorporates two sources of uncertainty: epistemic uncertainty about what preference state a decision maker has at a particular point in time; and ontic uncertainty about what decision or judgment will be observed when a person has some preference state. Representing these two sources of uncertainty allows the model to account for the oscillations in preference as well as the effect of choice on preference formation.

Testing the factor structure underlying behavior using joint cognitive models: Impulsivity in delay discounting and Cambridge gambling tasks.

Neurocognitive tasks are frequently used to assess disordered decision making, and cognitive models of these tasks can quantify performance in terms related to decision makers' underlying cognitive processes. In many cases, multiple cognitive models purport to describe similar processes, but it is difficult to evaluate whether they measure the same latent traits or processes. In this article, we develop methods for modeling behavior across multiple tasks by connecting cognitive model parameters to common latent constructs. This approach can be used to assess whether 2 tasks measure the same dimensions of cognition, or actually improve the estimates of cognitive models when there are overlapping cognitive processes between 2 related tasks. The approach is then applied to connecting decision data on 2 behavioral tasks that evaluate clinically relevant deficits, the delay discounting task and Cambridge gambling task, to determine whether they both measure the same dimension of impulsivity. We find that the discounting rate parameters in the models of each task are not closely related, although substance users exhibit more impulsive behavior on both tasks. Instead, temporal discounting on the delay discounting task as quantified by the model is more closely related to externalizing psychopathology like aggression, while temporal discounting on the Cambridge gambling task is related more to response inhibition failures. The methods we develop thus provide a new way to connect behavior across tasks and grant new insights onto the different dimensions of impulsivity and their relation to substance use. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

A distributional and dynamic theory of pricing and preference.

Theories that describe how people assign prices and make choices are typically based on the idea that both of these responses are derived from a common static, deterministic function used to assign utilities to options. However, preference reversals-where prices assigned to gambles conflict with preference orders elicited through binary choices-indicate that the response processes underlying these different methods of evaluation are more intricate. We address this issue by formulating a new computational model that assumes an initial bias or anchor that depends on type of price task (buying, selling, or certainty equivalents) and a stochastic evaluation accumulation process that depends on gamble attributes. To test this new model, we investigated choices and prices for a wide range of gambles and price tasks, including pricing under time pressure. In line with model predictions, we found that price distributions possessed stark skew that depended on the type of price and the attributes of gambles being considered. Prices were also sensitive to time pressure, indicating a dynamic evaluation process underlying price generation. The model out-performed prospect theory in predicting prices and additionally predicted the response times associated with these prices, which no prior model has accomplished. Finally, we show that the model successfully predicts out-of-sample choices and that its parameters allow us to fit choice response times as well. This price accumulation model therefore provides a superior account of the distributional and dynamic properties of price, leveraging process-level mechanisms to provide a more complete account of the valuation processes common across multiple methods of eliciting preference. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

What are the appropriate axioms of rationality for reasoning under uncertainty with resource-constrained systems?

When constrained by limited resources, how do we choose axioms of rationality? The target article relies on Bayesian reasoning that encounter serious tractability problems. We propose another axiomatic foundation: quantum probability theory, which provides for less complex and more comprehensive descriptions. More generally, defining rationality in terms of axiomatic systems misses a key issue: rationality must be defined by humans facing vague information.

Comparison of Markov versus quantum dynamical models of human decision making.

What kind of dynamic decision process do humans use to make decisions? In this article, two different types of processes are reviewed and compared: Markov and quantum. Markov processes are based on the idea that at any given point in time a decision maker has a definite and specific level of support for available choice alternatives, and the dynamic decision process is represented by a single trajectory that traces out a path across time. When a response is requested, a person's decision or judgment is generated from the current location along the trajectory. By contrast, quantum processes are founded on the idea that a person's state can be represented by a superposition over different degrees of support for available choice options, and that the dynamics of this state form a wave moving across levels of support over time. When a response is requested, a decision or judgment is constructed out of the superposition by "actualizing" a specific degree or range of degrees of support to create a definite state. The purpose of this article is to introduce these two contrasting theories, review empirical studies comparing the two theories, and identify conditions that determine when each theory is more accurate and useful than the other. This article is categorized under: Economics > Individual Decision-Making Psychology > Reasoning and Decision Making Psychology > Theory and Methods.

A computational model of the Cambridge gambling task with applications to substance use disorders.

BACKGROUND: Impulsivity is central to all forms of externalizing psychopathology, including problematic substance use. The Cambridge Gambling task (CGT) is a popular neurocognitive task used to assess impulsivity in both clinical and healthy populations. However, the traditional methods of analysis in the CGT do not fully capture the multiple cognitive mechanisms that give rise to impulsive behavior, which can lead to underpowered and difficult-to-interpret behavioral measures. OBJECTIVES: The current study presents the cognitive modeling approach as an alternative to traditional methods and assesses predictive and convergent validity across and between approaches. METHODS: We used hierarchical Bayesian modeling to fit a series of cognitive models to data from healthy controls (N = 124) and individuals with histories of substance use disorders (Heroin: N = 79; Amphetamine: N = 76; Polysubstance: N = 103; final total across groups N = 382). Using Bayesian model comparison, we identified the best fitting model, which was then used to identify differences in cognitive model parameters between groups. RESULTS: The cognitive modeling approach revealed differences in quality of decision making and impulsivity between controls and individuals with substance use disorders that traditional methods alone did not detect. Crucially, convergent validity between traditional measures and cognitive model parameters was strong across all groups. CONCLUSION: The cognitive modeling approach is a viable method of measuring the latent mechanisms that give rise to choice behavior in the CGT, which allows for stronger statistical inferences and a better understanding of impulsive and risk-seeking behavior.

Primer on quantum cognition.

Quantum cognition is a new field in psychology, which is characterized by the application of quantum probability theory to human judgment and decision making behavior. This article provides an introduction that presents several examples to illustrate in a simple and concrete manner how to apply these principles to interesting psychological phenomena. Following each simple example, we present the general mathematical derivations and new predictions related to these applications.

Markov versus quantum dynamic models of belief change during evidence monitoring.

Two different dynamic models for belief change during evidence monitoring were evaluated: Markov and quantum. They were empirically tested with an experiment in which participants monitored evidence for an initial period of time, made a probability rating, then monitored more evidence, before making a second rating. The models were qualitatively tested by manipulating the time intervals in a manner that provided a test for interference effects of the first rating on the second. The Markov model predicted no interference, whereas the quantum model predicted interference. More importantly, a quantitative comparison of the two models was also carried out using a generalization criterion method: the parameters were fit to data from one set of time intervals, and then these same parameters were used to predict data from another set of time intervals. The results indicated that some features of both Markov and quantum models are needed to accurately account for the results.

Cognitive and Neural Bases of Multi-Attribute, Multi-Alternative, Value-based Decisions.

Researchers have benefited from characterizing evidence-based decision making as a process involving sequential sampling. More recently, sequential sampling models have been applied to value-based decisions - decisions that involve examining preferences for multi-attribute, multi-alternative choices. The application of sequential sampling models to value-based decisions has helped researchers to account for the context effects associated with preferential choice tasks. However, for these models to predict choice preferences, more complex decision mechanisms have had to be introduced. We review here the complex decision mechanisms necessary to account for context effects found with multi-attribute, multi-alternative choices. In addition, we review linkages between these more complex processes and their neural substrates to develop a comprehensive and biologically plausible account of human value-based decision making.

Primer on quantum cognition

Quantum cognition is a new field in psychology, which is characterized by the application of quantum probability theory to human judgment and decision making behavior. This article provides an introduction that presents several examples to illustrate in a simple and concrete manner how to apply these principles to interesting psychological phenomena. Following each simple example, we present the general mathematical derivations and new predictions related to these applications

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Hilbert space multidimensional theory.

A general theory of measurement context effects, called Hilbert space multidimensional (HSM) theory, is presented. A measurement context refers to a subset of psychological variables that an individual evaluates on a particular occasion. Different contexts are formed by evaluating different but possibly overlapping subsets of variables. Context effects occur when the judgments across contexts cannot be derived from a single joint probability distribution over the complete set of values of the observed variables. HSM theory provides a way to model these context effects by using quantum probability theory, which represents all the variables within a low dimensional vector space. HSM models produce parameter estimates that provide a simple and informative interpretation of the complex collection of judgments across contexts. Comparisons of HSM model fits with Bayesian network model fits are reported for a new large experiment, demonstrating the viability of this new model. We conclude that the theory is broadly applicable to measurement context effects found in the social and behavioral sciences. (PsycINFO Database Record

The detour problem in a stochastic environment: Tolman revisited.

We designed a grid world task to study human planning and re-planning behavior in an unknown stochastic environment. In our grid world, participants were asked to travel from a random starting point to a random goal position while maximizing their reward. Because they were not familiar with the environment, they needed to learn its characteristics from experience to plan optimally. Later in the task, we randomly blocked the optimal path to investigate whether and how people adjust their original plans to find a detour. To this end, we developed and compared 12 different models. These models were different on how they learned and represented the environment and how they planned to catch the goal. The majority of our participants were able to plan optimally. We also showed that people were capable of revising their plans when an unexpected event occurred. The result from the model comparison showed that the model-based reinforcement learning approach provided the best account for the data and outperformed heuristics in explaining the behavioral data in the re-planning trials.

Neural implementation of operations used in quantum cognition.

Quantum probability theory has been successfully applied outside of physics to account for numerous findings from psychology regarding human judgement and decision making behavior. However, the researchers who have made these applications do not rely on the hypothesis that the brain is some type of quantum computer. This raises the question of how could the brain implement quantum algorithms other than quantum physical operations. This article outlines one way that a neural based system could perform the computations required by applications of quantum probability to human behavior.

Learning to allocate limited time to decisions with different expected outcomes.

The goal of this article is to investigate how human participants allocate their limited time to decisions with different properties. We report the results of two behavioral experiments. In each trial of the experiments, the participant must accumulate noisy information to make a decision. The participants received positive and negative rewards for their correct and incorrect decisions, respectively. The stimulus was designed such that decisions based on more accumulated information were more accurate but took longer. Therefore, the total outcome that a participant could achieve during the limited experiments' time depended on her "decision threshold", the amount of information she needed to make a decision. In the first experiment, two types of trials were intermixed randomly: hard and easy. Crucially, the hard trials were associated with smaller positive and negative rewards than the easy trials. A cue presented at the beginning of each trial would indicate the type of the upcoming trial. The optimal strategy was to adopt a small decision threshold for hard trials. The results showed that several of the participants did not learn this simple strategy. We then investigated how the participants adjusted their decision threshold based on the feedback they received in each trial. To this end, we developed and compared 10 computational models for adjusting the decision threshold. The models differ in their assumptions on the shape of the decision thresholds and the way the feedback is used to adjust the decision thresholds. The results of Bayesian model comparison showed that a model with time-varying thresholds whose parameters are updated by a reinforcement learning algorithm is the most likely model. In the second experiment, the cues were not presented. We showed that the optimal strategy is to use a single time-decreasing decision threshold for all trials. The results of the computational modeling showed that the participants did not use this optimal strategy. Instead, they attempted to detect the difficulty of the trial first and then set their decision threshold accordingly.

The rational status of quantum cognition.

Classic probability theory (CPT) is generally considered the rational way to make inferences, but there have been some empirical findings showing a divergence between reasoning and the principles of classical probability theory (CPT), inviting the conclusion that humans are irrational. Perhaps the most famous of these findings is the conjunction fallacy (CF). Recently, the CF has been shown consistent with the principles of an alternative probabilistic framework, quantum probability theory (QPT). Does this imply that QPT is irrational or does QPT provide an alternative interpretation of rationality? Our presentation consists of 3 parts. First, we examine the putative rational status of QPT using the same argument as used to establish the rationality of CPT, the Dutch Book (DB) argument, according to which reasoners should not commit to bets guaranteeing a loss. We prove the rational status of QPT by formulating it as a particular case of an extended form of CPT, with separate probability spaces produced by changing context. Second, we empirically examine the key requirement for whether a CF can be rational or not; the results show that participants indeed behave rationally, at least relative to the representations they employ. Finally, we consider whether the conditions for the CF to be rational are applicable in the outside (nonmental) world. Our discussion provides a general and alternative perspective for rational probabilistic inference, based on the idea that contextuality requires either reasoning in separate CPT probability spaces or reasoning with QPT principles. (PsycINFO Database Record

Neural Network-Based Solutions for Stochastic Optimal Control Using Path Integrals.

In this paper, an offline approximate dynamic programming approach using neural networks is proposed for solving a class of finite horizon stochastic optimal control problems. There are two approaches available in the literature, one based on stochastic maximum principle (SMP) formalism and the other based on solving the stochastic Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation. However, in the presence of noise, the SMP formalism becomes complex and results in having to solve a couple of backward stochastic differential equations. Hence, current solution methodologies typically ignore the noise effect. On the other hand, the inclusion of noise in the HJB framework is very straightforward. Furthermore, the stochastic HJB equation of a control-affine nonlinear stochastic system with a quadratic control cost function and an arbitrary state cost function can be formulated as a path integral (PI) problem. However, due to curse of dimensionality, it might not be possible to utilize the PI formulation for obtaining comprehensive solutions over the entire operating domain. A neural network structure called the adaptive critic design paradigm is used to effectively handle this difficulty. In this paper, a novel adaptive critic approach using the PI formulation is proposed for solving stochastic optimal control problems. The potential of the algorithm is demonstrated through simulation results from a couple of benchmark problems.

Challenges and promises for translating computational tools into clinical practice.

Computational modeling and associated methods have greatly advanced our understanding of cognition and neurobiology underlying complex behaviors and psychiatric conditions. Yet, no computational methods have been successfully translated into clinical settings. This review discusses three major methodological and practical challenges (A. precise characterization of latent neurocognitive processes, B. developing optimal assays, C. developing large-scale longitudinal studies and generating predictions from multi-modal data) and potential promises and tools that have been developed in various fields including mathematical psychology, computational neuroscience, computer science, and statistics. We conclude by highlighting a strong need to communicate and collaborate across multiple disciplines.