Relative rate and location of intra-host HIV evolution to evade cellular immunity are predictable.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) evolves within infected persons to escape being destroyed by the host immune system, thereby preventing effective immune control of infection. Here, we combine methods from evolutionary dynamics and statistical physics to simulate in vivo HIV sequence evolution, predicting the relative rate of escape and the location of escape mutations in response to T-cell-mediated immune pressure in a cohort of 17 persons with acute HIV infection. Predicted and clinically observed times to escape immune responses agree well, and we show that the mutational pathways to escape depend on the viral sequence background due to epistatic interactions. The ability to predict escape pathways and the duration over which control is maintained by specific immune responses open the door to rational design of immunotherapeutic strategies that might enable long-term control of HIV infection. Our approach enables intra-host evolution of a human pathogen to be predicted in a probabilistic framework.

Identification of drug resistance mutations in HIV from constraints on natural evolution.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) evolves with extraordinary rapidity. However, its evolution is constrained by interactions between mutations in its fitness landscape. Here we show that an Ising model describing these interactions, inferred from sequence data obtained prior to the use of antiretroviral drugs, can be used to identify clinically significant sites of resistance mutations. Successful predictions of the resistance sites indicate progress in the development of successful models of real viral evolution at the single residue level and suggest that our approach may be applied to help design new therapies that are less prone to failure even where resistance data are not yet available.

Universal critical dynamics in high resolution neuronal avalanche data.

The tasks of neural computation are remarkably diverse. To function optimally, neuronal networks have been hypothesized to operate near a nonequilibrium critical point. However, experimental evidence for critical dynamics has been inconclusive. Here, we show that the dynamics of cultured cortical networks are critical. We analyze neuronal network data collected at the individual neuron level using the framework of nonequilibrium phase transitions. Among the most striking predictions confirmed is that the mean temporal profiles of avalanches of widely varying durations are quantitatively described by a single universal scaling function. We also show that the data have three additional features predicted by critical phenomena: approximate power law distributions of avalanche sizes and durations, samples in subcritical and supercritical phases, and scaling laws between anomalous exponents.