The politics of urban trees: Tree planting is associated with gentrification in Portland, Oregon.

This study evaluated the hypothesis that urban-tree planting increases neighborhood gentrification in Portland, Oregon. We defined gentrification as an increase in the median sales price of single-family homes in a Census tract compared to other tracts in the city after accounting for differences in the housing stock such as house size and number of bathrooms. We used tree-planting data from the non-profit Friends of Trees, who have planted 57,985 yard and street trees in Portland (1990-2019). We estimated a mixed model of gentrification (30 years and 141 tracts) including random intercepts at the tract level and a first-order auto-regressive residual structure. Tract-level house prices and tree planting may be codetermined. Therefore, to address potential endogeneity of tree planting in statistical modeling, we lagged the number of trees planted by at least one year. We found that the number of trees planted in a tract was significantly associated with a higher tract-level median sales price, although it took at least six years for this relationship to emerge. Specifically, each tree was associated with a $131 (95% CI: $53-$210; p-value=0.001) increase in tract-level median sales price six years after planting. The magnitude of the association between the number of trees planted and median sales price generally increased as the time lag lengthened. After twelve years, each tree was associated with a $265 (95% CI: $151-$379; p-value<0.001) increase in tract-level median sales price. Tree planting was not merely a proxy for existing tree cover, as the percent of tract covered in tree canopy was independently associated with an increase in median sales price. Specifically, each 1-percentage point increase in tree-canopy cover was associated with a $882 (95% CI: $226-$1,538; p-value=0.008) increase in median sales price. In conclusion, tree planting is associated with neighborhood-level gentrification, although the magnitude of the association is modest.

Estimating the impact of the mattress fire safety Standard 16 CFR Part 1633 on bed fire outcomes.

Beds are a prevalent combustible in fatal fires in the United States effective 1 July 2007, the US Consumer Product Safety Commission promulgated a standard to severely reduce the heat release rate and the early heat output from mattresses and foundations when ignited by a flaming ignition source. This study estimates the Standard's success over its first decade using fire incidence, US population, and mattress sales data. The technique mitigates the influence of some exogenous factors that might have changed during this decade. The Standard is accomplishing its purpose, preventing approximately 65 fatalities (out of an estimated 95 fatalities in 2002-2005) from bed fires annually during 2015-2016, although not all pre-Standard mattresses had yet been replaced. Compared to residential upholstered furniture fires, which were not affected by the Standard, the numbers of bed fires decreased by 12%, injuries by 34%, and deaths by 82% between 2005-2006 and 2015-2016. Per bed fire, injuries decreased by 25% and fatalities decreased by 67%, indicating that the severity of bed fires is being reduced.

The Total Costs of Seismic Retrofits: State of the Art.

This article presents the current state-of-practice with respect to quantifying the total cost to retrofit an existing building. In particular, we combine quantitative, qualitative, and heuristic data to provide a taxonomy for understanding the direct and indirect costs associated with seismic risk mitigation. Much of the literature to date has focused on estimating structural retrofit costs, the costs of retrofitting the structural elements of a building. In contrast, there is very little research or data on the remaining cost components of the total cost. We propose using structural cost as the foundation for approximating the remaining cost components and the total cost itself. To validate our findings, we compare the proposed approximations with actual cost estimates developed by engineering professionals.

A Predictive Modeling Approach to Estimating Seismic Retrofit Costs.

This paper presents a methodology for estimating seismic retrofit costs from historical data. In particular, historical retrofit cost data from FEMA 156 is used to build a generalized linear model (GLM) to predict retrofit costs as a function of building characteristics. While not as accurate as an engineering professional's estimate, this methodology is easy to apply to generate quick estimates and is especially useful for decision makers with large building portfolios. Moreover, the predictive modeling approach provides a measure of uncertainty in terms of prediction error. The paper uses prediction error to compare different modeling choices, including the choice of distribution for costs. Finally, the proposed retrofit cost model is implemented to estimate the cost to retrofit a portfolio of federal buildings. The application illustrates how the choice of distribution affects cost estimates.

Identifying vulnerable populations to death and injuries from residential fires.

OBJECTIVE: This study proposes and evaluates the theory that people who are susceptible to injury in residential fires are not susceptible to death in residential fires and vice versa. It is proposed that the population vulnerable to death in residential fires can be proxied by 'frailty', which is measured as age-gender adjusted fatality rates due to natural causes. METHODS: This study uses an ecological approach and controls for exposure to estimate the vulnerability of different population groups to death and injury in residential fires. It allows fatalities and injuries to be estimated by different models. RESULTS: Frailty explains fire-related death in adults while not explaining injuries, which is consistent with the idea that deaths and injuries affect disjoint populations. CONCLUSIONS: Deaths and injuries in fire are drawn from different populations. People who are susceptible to dying in fires are unlikely to be injured in fires, and the people who are susceptible to injury are unlikely to die in fires.

Cigarette Fires Involving Upholstered Furniture in Residences: The Role that Smokers, Smoker Behavior, and Fire Standard Compliant Cigarettes Play.

Residential structure fires pose a significant risk to life and property. A major source of these fires is the ignition of upholstered furniture by cigarettes. It has long been established that cigarettes and other lighted tobacco products could ignite upholstered furniture and were a leading cause of fire deaths in residences. In recent years, states have adopted fire standard compliant cigarettes ('FSC cigarettes') that are made with a wrapping paper that contains regularly spaced bands, which increases the likelihood of self-extinguishment. This paper measures the effectiveness of FSC cigarettes on the number of residential fires involving upholstered furniture, and the resulting fatalities, injuries, and extent of flame spread, while accounting for the under-reporting of fire incidents. In total, four models were estimated using fire department data from 2002 to 2011. The results provide evidence that FSC cigarettes, on average, reduced the number of residential fires by 45 %, reduced fatalities by 23 %, and extent of flame spread by 27 % in 2011. No effect on injuries was found. Within each state, effectiveness is moderated by the number of smokers and their consumption patterns. In general, FSC cigarettes are more effective in places with a large smoking population who engage in heavier smoking. There is a very limited effect on the lightest of smokers, suggesting behavioral differences between heavy and light smokers that influence fire risk.

The net benefits of human-ignited wildfire forecasting: the case of Tribal land units in the United States.

Research shows that some categories of human-ignited wildfires might be forecastable, due to their temporal clustering, with the possibility that resources could be pre-deployed to help reduce the incidence of such wildfires. We estimated several kinds of incendiary and other human-ignited wildfire forecast models at the weekly time step for tribal land units in the United States, evaluating their forecast skill out of sample. Analyses show that an Autoregressive Conditional Poisson (ACP) model of both incendiary and non-incendiary human-ignited wildfires is more accurate out of sample compared to alternatives, and the simplest of the ACP models performed the best. Additionally, an ensemble of these and simpler, less analytically intensive approaches performed even better. Wildfire hotspot forecast models using all model types were evaluated in a simulation mode to assess the net benefits of forecasts in the context of law enforcement resource reallocations. Our analyses show that such hotspot tools could yield large positive net benefits for the tribes in terms of suppression expenditures averted for incendiary wildfires but that the hotspot tools were less likely to be beneficial for addressing outbreaks of non-incendiary human-ignited wildfires.

The relationship between trees and human health: evidence from the spread of the emerald ash borer.

BACKGROUND: Several recent studies have identified a relationship between the natural environment and improved health outcomes. However, for practical reasons, most have been observational, cross-sectional studies. PURPOSE: A natural experiment, which provides stronger evidence of causality, was used to test whether a major change to the natural environment-the loss of 100 million trees to the emerald ash borer, an invasive forest pest-has influenced mortality related to cardiovascular and lower-respiratory diseases. METHODS: Two fixed-effects regression models were used to estimate the relationship between emerald ash borer presence and county-level mortality from 1990 to 2007 in 15 U.S. states, while controlling for a wide range of demographic covariates. Data were collected from 1990 to 2007, and the analyses were conducted in 2011 and 2012. RESULTS: There was an increase in mortality related to cardiovascular and lower-respiratory-tract illness in counties infested with the emerald ash borer. The magnitude of this effect was greater as infestation progressed and in counties with above-average median household income. Across the 15 states in the study area, the borer was associated with an additional 6113 deaths related to illness of the lower respiratory system, and 15,080 cardiovascular-related deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that loss of trees to the emerald ash borer increased mortality related to cardiovascular and lower-respiratory-tract illness. This finding adds to the growing evidence that the natural environment provides major public health benefits.

Comparing the performance of residential fire sprinklers with other life-safety technologies.

Residential fire sprinklers have long proven themselves as life-safety technologies to the fire service community. Yet, about 1% of all one- and two-family dwelling fires occur in homes protected by sprinklers. It has been argued that measured sprinkler performance has ignored factors confounding the relationship between sprinkler use and performance. In this analysis, sprinkler performance is measured by comparing 'like' structure fires, while conditioning on smoke detection technology and neighborhood housing and socioeconomic conditions, using propensity score matching. Results show that residential fire sprinklers protect occupant and firefighter health and safety, and are comparable to other life-safety technologies.

Urban trees and the risk of poor birth outcomes.

This paper investigated whether greater tree-canopy cover is associated with reduced risk of poor birth outcomes in Portland, Oregon. Residential addresses were geocoded and linked to classified-aerial imagery to calculate tree-canopy cover in 50, 100, and 200 m buffers around each home in our sample (n=5696). Detailed data on maternal characteristics and additional neighborhood variables were obtained from birth certificates and tax records. We found that a 10% increase in tree-canopy cover within 50 m of a house reduced the number of small for gestational age births by 1.42 per 1000 births (95% CI-0.11-2.72). Results suggest that the natural environment may affect pregnancy outcomes and should be evaluated in future research.