The long road to elimination: malaria mortality in a South African population cohort over 21 years.

BACKGROUND: Malaria elimination is on global agendas following successful transmission reductions. Nevertheless moving from low to zero transmission is challenging. South Africa has an elimination target of 2018, which may or may not be realised in its hypoendemic areas. METHODS: The Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System has monitored population health in north-eastern South Africa since 1992. Malaria deaths were analysed against individual factors, socioeconomic status, labour migration and weather over a 21-year period, eliciting trends over time and associations with covariates. RESULTS: Of 13 251 registered deaths over 1.58 million person-years, 1.2% were attributed to malaria. Malaria mortality rates increased from 1992 to 2013, while mean daily maximum temperature rose by 1.5 °C. Travel to endemic Mozambique became easier, and malaria mortality increased in higher socioeconomic groups. Overall, malaria mortality was significantly associated with age, socioeconomic status, labour migration and employment, yearly rainfall and higher rainfall/temperature shortly before death. CONCLUSIONS: Malaria persists as a small but important cause of death in this semi-rural South African population. Detailed longitudinal population data were crucial for these analyses. The findings highlight practical political, socioeconomic and environmental difficulties that may also be encountered elsewhere in moving from low-transmission scenarios to malaria elimination.

The development of a localised HIV epidemic and the associated excess mortality burden in a rural area of South Africa.

The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic in South Africa rapidly developed into a major pandemic. Here we analyse the development of the epidemic in a rural area of the country. The data used were collected between 1992 and 2013 in a longitudinal population survey, the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance Study, in the northeast of the country. Throughout the period of study mortality rates were similar in all villages, suggesting that there were multiple index cases evenly spread geographically. These were likely to have been returning migrant workers. For those aged below 39 years the HIV mortality rate was higher for women, above this age it was higher for men. This indicates the protective effect of greater access to HIV testing and treatment among older women. The recent convergence of mortality rates for Mozambicans and South Africans indicates that the former refugee population are being assimilated into the host community. More than 60% of the deaths occurring in this community between 1992 and 2013 could be attributed directly or indirectly to HIV. Recently there has been an increasing level of non-HIV mortality which has important implications for local healthcare provision. This study demonstrates how evidence from longitudinal analyses can support healthcare planning.

Non-specific sex-differential effect of DTP vaccination may partially explain the excess girl child mortality in Ballabgarh, India.

OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that a gender differential exists in the effect on child mortality of BCG, DTP, measles vaccine as administered under programme conditions in Ballabgarh HDSS area. METHODS: All live births in 28 villages of Ballabgarh block in North India from 2006 to 2011 were followed until 31 December 2011 or 36 months of age whichever was earlier. The period of analysis was divided into four time periods based on eligibility for vaccines under the national immunisation schedule (BCG for tuberculosis, primary and booster doses of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis and measles). Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the association between sex and risk of mortality by vaccination status using age as the timescale in survival analysis and adjusting for wealth index, access to health care, the presence of a health facility in the village, parental education, type of family, birth order of the child and year of birth. RESULTS: 702 deaths (332 boys and 370 girls) occurred among 12,142 children in the cohort in the 3 years of follow-up giving a cumulative mortality rate of 57.5 per 1000 live births with 35% excess girl child mortality. Age at vaccination for the four vaccines did not differ by sex. There was significant excess mortality among girls after immunisation with DTP, for both primary (HR 1.65; 95% CI:1.17-2.32) and DTPb (2.21; 1.24-3.93) vaccinations. No significant excess morality among girls was noted after exposure to BCG 1.06 (0.67-1.67) or measles 1.34 (0.85-2.12) vaccine. CONCLUSION: This study supports the contention that DTP vaccination is partially responsible for higher mortality among girls in this study population.

Prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of hypertension in Vietnam-results from a national survey.

The objective of this study was to estimate mean blood pressure (BP), prevalence of hypertension (defined as BP ≥140/90 mm Hg) and its awareness, treatment and control in the Vietnamese adult population. This cross-sectional survey took place in eight Vietnamese provinces and cities. Multi-stage stratified sampling was used to select 9832 participants from the general population aged 25 years and over. Trained observers obtained two or three BP measurements from each person, using an automatic sphygmomanometer. Information on socio-geographical factors and anti-hypertensive medications was obtained using a standard questionnaire. The overall prevalence of hypertension was 25.1%, 28.3% in men and 23.1% in women. Among hypertensives, 48.4% were aware of their elevated BP, 29.6% had treatment and 10.7% achieved targeted BP control (<140/90 mm Hg). Among hypertensive aware, 61.1% had treatment, and among hypertensive treated, 36.3% had well control. Hypertension increased with age in both men and women. The hypertension was significantly higher in urban than in rural areas (32.7 vs 17.3%, P<0.001). Hypertension is a major and increasing public health problem in Vietnam. Prevalence among adults is high, whereas the proportions of hypertensives aware, treated and controlled were unacceptably low. These results imply an urgent need to develop national strategies to improve prevention and control of hypertension in Vietnam.

Motherhood, migration and mortality in Dikgale: modelling life events among women in a rural South African community.

OBJECTIVES: Although particular types of life events in populations are often studied separately, this study investigated the joint effects of three major event types in South African women's lives: motherhood, migration and mortality. STUDY DESIGN: Data were taken from a health and demographic surveillance site (HDSS) over an 11-year period, reflecting the entire population of a defined geographic area as an open cohort, in which individuals participated in regular longitudinal surveillance for health and demographic events. This HDSS is a member of the Indepth Network. METHODS: Multivariate Poisson regression models were built for each of the three life event types, in which individual person-time observed out of the total possible 11-year period was used as a rate multiplier. These models were used to calculate adjusted incidence rate ratios for each factor. RESULTS: In the 21,587 person-years observed for women aged 15-49 years, from 1996 to 2006, adjusted rate ratios for mortality and migration increased substantially over time, while motherhood remained fairly constant. Women who migrated were less likely to bear children; temporary migrants were at greater risk of dying, while permanent in-migrants had higher survival rates. Women who subsequently died were much less likely to bear children or migrate. CONCLUSIONS: The associations between motherhood, migration and mortality among these rural South African women were complex and dynamic. Extremely rapid increases in mortality over the period studied are presumed to reflect the effects of the human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic. Understanding these complex interactions between various life events at population level is crucial for effective public health planning and service delivery.

Ageing of a rural Ethiopian population: who are the survivors?

OBJECTIVES: This study assessed trends in survival to old age and identified the factors associated with longevity among the elderly (age > or = 65 years). STUDY DESIGN: Cohort analysis of demographic surveillance data. METHODS: The study was conducted in the Butajira Rural Health Programme Demographic Surveillance Site in Ethiopia. Using data collected between 1987 and 2004, the probability of survival to 65 years and remaining life expectancy for women and men aged 65 years were computed. Cox regression analysis was used to assess survival by different factors. RESULTS: Although the elderly represented 3% of the population, their person-time contribution increased by 48% over the 18-year period. Less than half reached 65 years of age, with remaining life expectancy at 65 years ranging from 15 years in rural men to 19 years in urban women. Rural residence, illiteracy and widowhood were associated with lower survival adjusted for other factors, whereas gender did not show a significant difference. However, the effect of these factors differed between men and women, as demonstrated by survival curves and Cox regression. Widowhood [hazard ratio (HR) 2.02, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.59-2.57] and illiteracy (HR 2.26, 95% CI 1.86-2.73) affected males to a greater extent than females, and rural residence was associated with poorer female survival (HR 1.68, 95% CI 1.55-1.83). CONCLUSIONS: The number of elderly people is increasing in Ethiopia, with the chance of survival into older age being similar between men and women and approaching that in developed countries. However, rural women and illiterate women and men, particularly widowers, are disadvantaged in terms of survival.

Identifying humanitarian crises in population surveillance field sites: simple procedures and ethical imperatives.

OBJECTIVES: Effective early warning systems of humanitarian crises may help to avert substantial increases in mortality and morbidity, and prevent major population movements. The Butajira Rural Health Programme (BRHP) in Ethiopia has maintained a programme of epidemiological surveillance since 1987. Inspection of the BRHP data revealed large peaks of mortality in 1998 and 1999, well in excess of the normally observed year-to-year variation. Further investigation and enquiry revealed that these peaks related to a measles epidemic, and a serious episode of drought and consequent food insecurity that went undetected by the BRHP. This paper applies international humanitarian crisis threshold definitions to the BRHP data in an attempt to identify suitable mortality thresholds that may be used for the prospective detection of humanitarian crises in population surveillance sites in developing countries. STUDY DESIGN: Empirical investigation using secondary analysis of longitudinal population-based cohort data. METHODS: The daily, weekly and monthly thresholds for crises in Butajira were applied to mortality data for the 5-year period incorporating the crisis periods of 1998-1999. Days, weeks and months in which mortality exceeded each threshold level were identified. Each threshold level was assessed in terms of prospectively identifying the true crisis periods in a timely manner whilst avoiding false alarms. RESULTS: The daily threshold definition is too sensitive to accurately detect impending or real crises in the population surveillance setting of the BRHP. However, the weekly threshold level is useful in identifying important increases in mortality in a timely manner without the excessive sensitivity of the daily threshold. The weekly threshold level detects the crisis periods approximately 2 weeks before the monthly threshold level. CONCLUSION: Mortality measures are highly specific indicators of the health status of populations, and simple procedures can be used to apply international crisis threshold definitions in population surveillance settings for the prospective detection of important changes in mortality rate. Standards for the timely use of surveillance data and ethical responsibilities of those responsible for the data should be made explicit to improve the public health functioning of current sentinel surveillance methodologies.

Difficulties in getting treatment for injuries in rural Vietnam.

OBJECTIVES: Knowledge about the health-seeking behaviour of injury patients is important for the improvement of community health services. The aims of this study were: (1) to describe the healthcare-seeking behaviour of injury patients; (2) to examine factors associated with injury patients seeking care at health facilities; and (3) to describe the costs of health care for injury patients. STUDY DESIGN: This study took place in Bavi District, northern Vietnam within a longitudinal community surveillance site (FilaBavi). All non-fatal unintentional injuries occurring in a sample of 24,776 people during 2000 were recorded. METHOD: The injury questionnaire included information on care-seeking behaviour, severity and consequences of injury. Both univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to find associations between sociodemographic factors and utilization of any health services, as well as for each type of health service used, compared with the group who did not use any health services. RESULT: Of 24,776 persons living in the study area, 1917 reported 2079 new non-fatal debilitating injuries during the four 3-month periods of observation. Health-seeking behaviour relating to the first 1917 injuries was analysed. Self-treatment was most common (51.7%), even in cases of severe injury. There was low usage of public health services (23.2%) among injury patients. Long distances, poor economic status and residence in difficult geographic areas such as highlands and mountains were barriers for seeking health services. A large proportion of household income was spent on treating injury patients. Poor people spent a greater proportion of their income on health care than the rich, and often used less qualified or untrained private providers. CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrate the logistical and financial difficulties associated with the treatment of injuries in rural Vietnam. This suggests the need to make public health subsidies available more efficiently and equitably. Whilst this study looked at the situation specifically in the context of injury treatment, it is likely that similar patterns apply in other areas of health care.

Mortality Decreases among Young Adults in Southern Central Ethiopia

Background: Despite the anticipated high impact of HIV and AIDS among young people; AIDS related mortality is not well documented because of the lack of death registration systems in Ethiopia. The objective of this analysis was to investigate the trends in mortality among young adults (aged 10-24 years) in the era of the AIDS epidemic. Methods: We analyzed data for young adults aged between 10-24 years using the Butajira Rural Health Programme (BRHP) open cohort database. The study covers 1 urban and 9 rural communities; which were initially randomly selected from the Butajira district. The BHRP database covers the period 1987-2004; recording vital events and migration at the household level after an initial baseline census in 1987; using village-based data collectors. The data included 34;150 young people who contributed a total of 248;154 person years. Results: In the 18-year follow-up period; 1;030 young adults died; giving an age-specific crude mortality rate of 4.2 per 1;000 person-years. The trends of mortality in this population declined from 6 per 1;000 person-years in 1987- 1989 to less than 2 per 1;000 person-years in 2002-2004. Deaths due to HIV were recorded at a rate of only 0.02 per1;000 person-years; according to causes of death reported by family care givers. A multivariate regression model showed that young adults from the rural highlands and lowlands had a higher risk of death (adjusted rate ratios 1.99 [1.40-2.83] and 2.58 [1.82-3.66] respectively) than young urban adults; even after adjusting for water source; literacy and housing type. The earlier cohorts (1987-1989 and 1990-1994) had higher risks of mortality than the latest cohort (1999-2004) - (adjusted rate ratios 1.91 [1.59-2.29] and 2.03 [1.75-2.35] respectively). Conclusion: A remarkable decline in mortality was observed in this population with little sign of excessive HIV/AIDS-related mortality appearing during this 18-year period. However; the occurrence of AIDS-related deaths in the latter part of the study period suggests appropriate interventions to counter the developing HIV epidemic are justified

Mortality Decreases among Young Adults in Southern Central Ethiopia

Background: Despite the anticipated high impact of HIV and AIDS among young people; AIDS related mortality is not well documented because of the lack of death registration systems in Ethiopia. The objective of this analysis was to investigate the trends in mortality among young adults (aged 10-24 years) in the era of the AIDS epidemic. Methods: We analyzed data for young adults aged between 10-24 years using the Butajira Rural Health Programme (BRHP) open cohort database. The study covers 1 urban and 9 rural communities; which were initially randomly selected from the Butajira district. The BHRP database covers the period 1987-2004; recording vital events and migration at the household level after an initial baseline census in 1987; using village-based data collectors. The data included 34;150 young people who contributed a total of 248;154 person years. Results: In the 18-year follow-up period; 1;030 young adults died; giving an age-specific crude mortality rate of 4.2 per 1;000 person-years. The trends of mortality in this population declined from 6 per 1;000 person-years in 1987- 1989 to less than 2 per 1;000 person-years in 2002-2004. Deaths due to HIV were recorded at a rate of only 0.02 per 1;000 person-years; according to causes of death reported by family care givers. A multivariate regression model showed that young adults from the rural highlands and lowlands had a higher risk of death (adjusted rate ratios 1.99 [1.40-2.83] and 2.58 [1.82-3.66] respectively) than young urban adults; even after adjusting for water source; literacy and housing type. The earlier cohorts (1987-1989 and 1990-1994) had higher risks of mortality than the latest cohort (1999-2004) - (adjusted rate ratios 1.91 [1.59-2.29] 2.03 [1.75-2.35] respectively). Conclusion: A remarkable decline in mortality was observed in this population with little sign of excessive HIV/AIDS-related mortality appearing during this 18-year period. However; the occurrence of AIDS-related deaths in the latter part of the study period suggests appropriate interventions to counter the developing HIV epidemic are justified

The Distribution and Effects of Child Mortality Risk Factors in Ethiopia: a Comparison of Estimates from DSS and DHS

Objectives: To conduct a comparative analysis of the distribution and effects of under-five mortality correlates using Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) and Demographic Surveillance System (DSS) data from Ethiopia; and to investigate the methodological bias in DHS-based childhood mortality rates due to the impossibility of including children whose mothers were deceased. Methods: Using all-cause under-5 mortality as an outcome variable; the distribution and effects of risk factors were modeled using survival analysis. All live births in rural Ethiopia in the 5-year period before the 2005 DSS+ survey and between 01/01/2000 and 31/12/2004 in the DSS in the Butajira Rural Health Program (in the Southern Nations; Nationalities; and People's (SNNP) region of Ethiopia) were included. Results: Overall; similar estimates of hazard rate ratios were derived from both DHS and DSS data and the child mortality risk profile is similar between each data source; with multiple births and living in less populous households being significant risk factors for under-five mortality. Nevertheless; some notable differences were observed. The DSS data was more sensitive to local variations in population composition and health status; whilst the more dispersed DHS approach tended to average out local variation across the country. Excluding children whose mothers were deceased from the DSS analysis had no important effect on risk profiles or estimates of survival functions at age 5 years. DHS survival functions were somewhat lower than DSS estimates (BRHP=0.87; DHS rural Ethiopia=0.67; DHS SNNP=0.66). Conclusion: Despite differing methodologies; cross-sectional DHS and longitudinal DSS data produce estimates of the distribution and effects of under-five mortality risk factors that are broadly similar. The differing methodological characteristics of DHS and DSS mean that when combined; these two data sources have the potential to provide a comprehensive picture of national population composition and health status as well as the extent of local variation - both of which are important for health monitoring and planning

Association between body mass index and blood pressure across three populations in Africa and Asia.

Despite a growing burden of obesity and hypertension in developing countries, there is limited information on the contribution of body mass index (BMI) to blood pressure (BP) in these populations. This study examines the association between BMI and BP in three populations across Africa and Asia. Data on BMI, BP and other background characteristics of study participants were generated using the World Health Organization STEPwise approach to surveillance (STEPS), at three demographic surveillance sites in Ethiopia, Vietnam and Indonesia. BMI and BP increased along the socioeconomic gradient across the three countries. Mean (s.d.) BMI in men varied between 19.41 (2.28) in Ethiopia to 21.17 (2.86) in Indonesia. A high prevalence of overweight/obesity was noted among Indonesian women (25%) and men (10%), whereas low BMI was widely prevalent in Ethiopia and Vietnam, ranging from 33 to 43%. Mean (s.d.) systolic BP (SBP) among men varied between 117.15 (15.35) in Ethiopia to 127.33 (17.80) in Indonesia. The prevalence of hypertension was highest among women (25%) and men (24%) in Indonesia. Mean BP levels increased with increasing BMI. The risk of hypertension was higher among population groups with overweight and obesity (BMI>/=25 kg/m(2)); odds ratio (95% confidence interval); 2.47 (1.42, 4.29) in Ethiopia, 2.67 (1.75, 4.08) in Vietnam and 7.64 (3.88, 15.0) in Indonesia. BMI was significantly and positively correlated with both SBP and DBP in all the three populations, correlation coefficient (r) ranging between 0.23 and 0.27, P<0.01. High BP exists in a background of undernutrition in populations at early stages of the epidemiologic transition.

Gender differences in prevalence and socioeconomic determinants of hypertension: findings from the WHO STEPs survey in a rural community of Vietnam.

In Vietnam, hypertension was estimated to cause a large number of deaths in hospitals. However, population-based knowledge about the magnitude of hypertension in Vietnam and its relationship with socioeconomic status, especially in the rural communities, still remains scarce. This paper, taking advantage of a study on noncommunicable disease (NCD) risk factors in Bavi district, Vietnam, using the WHO STEPs approach, estimates the prevalence of hypertension in the setting and examines its association with some socioeconomic factors. A representative sample comprising 2000 adults aged 25-64 years were selected randomly and surveyed in 2002. The JNC VII criteria for hypertension were used. Socioeconomic status of the study subjects was estimated by assessing their education, occupation and economic conditions. Descriptive techniques and multivariate logistic regression were used. The prevalence of hypertension was 14.1%. Of hypertensives, only 17.4% were aware of their hypertensive status. Men were hypertensive more often than women and age was positively associated with hypertension. The association between hypertension and socioeconomic status was complex and differed between men and women. Among men, those with lower educational and occupational status but who were richer were more likely to be hypertensive. More women with lower occupational and economic status were hypertensive.

Unintentional injuries over a 1-year period in a rural Vietnamese community: describing an iceberg.

OBJECTIVES: To document unintentional injuries in a rural community over a 1-year period as a basis for prioritizing preventive activities. STUDY DESIGN: Quarterly home visits over 1 year to elicit experience of injury among household members in the preceding 3 months. METHODS: In total, 24,776 people living in rural communities in the Bavi District, Northern Vietnam, were surveyed in home visits during 2000. In the home visits, injuries that needed care or disrupted normal activities were recorded, together with their circumstances. RESULTS: Overall, 2079 new non-fatal injuries were recorded over 23,338 person-years, a rate of 89/1000 person-years-at-risk. Males had a significantly higher injury rate than females for all age groups except for those aged 35-59 years and the elderly (P<0.05). The elderly were at highest risk of injury (P<0.05), particularly females. Home injuries occurred at the highest overall rate, particularly among the elderly. Road traffic injuries were most common among children. Most injuries involved contact with another object. Less than one-quarter of injury victims sought care at a health facility. CONCLUSIONS: Community-based household surveys revealed the hidden part of the injury iceberg, as well as showing high incidence rates, indicating that injury is an important public health problem which should be a priority for intervention in rural Vietnam, and probably elsewhere. This comprehensive study is intended to contribute evidence and methods to the Ministry of Health's national programme for injury prevention, and to a wider audience.

Empirical modelling of population sampling: lessons for designing sentinel surveillance.

BACKGROUND: In order to consider the practical viability of 1% sentinel area surveillance for health information in resource-poor settings where complete registration is unrealistic, the effects of different sampling procedures on the representativeness of 1% population samples have been investigated. METHODS: Using the 1991 census of England as a basis for modelling, 20 1% samples, each incorporating seven key parameters, were drawn at random from the overall dataset by each of eight different sampling procedures. Each sample was compared with the 'gold standard' of the overall census results, enabling comparisons between the different sampling procedures. RESULTS: Representativeness of the 1% samples varied considerably between parameters and sampling procedures. At one extreme, the proportion of males in the population was distributed such that different sampling methods had little effect. On the other hand, samples of a heterogeneous parameter such as the proportion of non-whites in the population depended greatly on the procedure used. Sampling smaller administrative units tended to be more accurate. However, sampling units using probability proportional to size generally gave less representative samples. Stratifying urban and rural populations in the samples had little effect. Multistage sampling, emulating typical demographic surveillance sites, also generally gave less representative samples. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to achieve representative data by taking 1% of a national population in a sentinel surveillance approach, but sampling design can have an important influence on the outcome. This modelling supports the concept of 1% sentinel surveillance for health information in poorer settings, where complete data are unavailable.

Schistosome transmission, water-resource development and altitude in northern Ethiopia.

Schistosomiasis continues to be a major public-health problem, not least in association with water-resource developments. The impact of microdam construction in the northern Ethiopian highlands, in relation to possible increased risks of Schistosoma mansoni infection, has now been assessed. The results of incidence studies, carried out on 473 individuals sampled across eight microdam sites at altitudes of 1800-2225 m above sea level, indicated an overall annual incidence of 0.20 infections/person at risk. A multivariate Poisson regression model showed altitude and sex to be significant risk factors for infection, whereas proximity to a microdam was not significant, except possibly at very high altitudes. It was concluded that altitude was the major factor in this environment and that therefore, at least in terms of public-health planning, microdams should be sited as high as local geography permits.

The role of demographic surveillance systems (DSS) in assessing the health of communities: an example from rural Ethiopia.

Longitudinal demographic surveillance systems (DSSs) in selected populations can provide important information in situations where routine health information is incomplete or absent, particularly in developing countries. The Butajira Rural Health Project is one such example, initiated in rural Ethiopia in 1987. DSSs rely on regular community-based surveillance as a means of vital event registration, among a sufficient population base to draw meaningful conclusions about rates and trends in relatively rare events such as maternal death. Enquiries into specific health problems can also then use this framework to quantify particular issues or evaluate interventions. Demographic characteristics and trends for a rural Ethiopian population over a 10-y period are presented as an illustration of the DSS approach, based on 336 000 person-years observed. Overall life expectancy at birth was 50 y. Demographic parameters generally showed modest trends towards improvement over the 10-y period. The DSS approach is useful in characterising populations at the community level over a period of time, providing important information for health planning and intervention. Methodological issues underlying this approach need further exploration and development.

The ALERT MDT Field Evaluation Study (AMFES): a descriptive study of leprosy in Ethiopia. Patients, methods and baseline characteristics.

The ALERT MDT Field Evaluation Study (AMFES) is a long-term prospective study of 650 patients (594 new cases and 56 relapses after dapsone monotherapy), treated with fixed-duration multiple-drug therapy (MDT), as recommended by WHO. Follow-up has continued for up to 11 years from the start of treatment. This paper presents the methodology of the study and the baseline characteristics of the cohort, while accompanying papers examine the incidence of, and possible risk factors for, the various complications of leprosy, including relapse, reactions and nerve function impairment. The methods of diagnosis, classification and treatment with MDT are described; nerve function was assessed at every visit to the clinic using a standardized methodology, so that reactions and new impairment could be detected early and treated. Eighty-four per cent of new case had at least one thickened nerve, with the ulnar nerve most commonly involved. Seventy-seven per cent of cases completed treatment and only one adverse reaction to the MDT drugs was noted. Twenty-eight per cent of all patients were given steroids at one time or another, almost always for new nerve function impairment, and 3% of these developed significant complications of steroid treatment. Twenty-nine patients (5%) received hospital care, including 14 patients who underwent major surgery. Sixty-one per cent of the women over 19 years of age had at least one pregnancy, but pregnancies were much less common after leprosy was diagnosed.

The pattern of leprosy-related neuropathy in the AMFES patients in Ethiopia: definitions, incidence, risk factors and outcome.

The ALERT MDT Field Evaluation Study (AMFES) began in 1988 and followed patients prospectively for up to 10 years after release from treatment (RFT). This paper presents the findings from this cohort with regard to neuropathy and nerve damage. Five hundred and ninety-four new cases of leprosy are included in the study, 300 multibacillary (MB) and 294 paucibacillary (PB) cases. Fifty-five percent of patients had some degree of impairment at diagnosis and a further 73 (12%) developed new nerve function impairment (NFI) after starting multiple drug therapy (MDT). The overall incidence rate for neuropathy was 39 episodes per 100 PYAR in the first year after diagnosis, gradually declining to 12 episodes per 100 PYAR in the sixth year. In those patients without impairment at diagnosis, the incidence rate of neuropathy was 25 episodes per 100 PYAR for MB cases and 11 per 100 PYAR for PB cases in the first year; in 33% of MB cases whose first episode of neuropathy occurred after diagnosis, that first episode took place after the first year, or after the normal period of treatment with MDT. Seventy-three patients with neuropathy developing after diagnosis are reported more fully: 34 (47%) had only one nerve involved and of these 25 (73%) had a single, acute episode of neuropathy. Nine (27%) had further episodes. Thirty-nine (53%) had more than one nerve involved and of these 16 (41%) had a single, acute episode, while 23 (59%) had further episodes. The terms 'chronic' and 'recurrent' neuropathy are defined and used to describe the pattern of neuropathy in those with repeated attacks. In patients with no impairment at the start of the study, treatment with steroids resulted in full recovery in 88% of nerves with acute neuropathy but only 51% of those with chronic or recurrent neuropathy. The median time to full recovery from acute neuropathy was approximately 6 months, but in a few cases recovery occurred gradually over 2-3 years. Severe neuropathy was less likely to be followed by a complete recovery than mild or moderate neuropathy. Forty-two percent of nerves with acute neuropathy that were not treated with steroids also fully recovered. In the group of patients who were thought to have old, permanent impairments at diagnosis, full recovery of nerve function occurred in 87/374 (23%) of the nerves involved. The overall outcome is illustrated by examining the average EHF score for groups of patients. Patients with no new neuropathy after diagnosis show a gradual improvement in their EHF score, while those with any episodes of neuropathy after diagnosis show a gradual deterioration after completion of MDT. Possible explanations for these findings are discussed. Risk factors for neuropathy, for chronic and recurrent neuropathy, and for a poor outcome 5 years after release from treatment, are examined. Impairment at diagnosis was the main risk factor for a poor outcome, accompanied by the occurrence of chronic/recurrent neuropathy or a reversal reaction.