Fast Bayesian inference for large occupancy datasets.

In recent years, the study of species' occurrence has benefited from the increased availability of large-scale citizen-science data. While abundance data from standardized monitoring schemes are biased toward well-studied taxa and locations, opportunistic data are available for many taxonomic groups, from a large number of locations and across long timescales. Hence, these data provide opportunities to measure species' changes in occurrence, particularly through the use of occupancy models, which account for imperfect detection. These opportunistic datasets can be substantially large, numbering hundreds of thousands of sites, and hence present a challenge from a computational perspective, especially within a Bayesian framework. In this paper, we develop a unifying framework for Bayesian inference in occupancy models that account for both spatial and temporal autocorrelation. We make use of the Pólya-Gamma scheme, which allows for fast inference, and incorporate spatio-temporal random effects using Gaussian processes (GPs), for which we consider two efficient approximations: subset of regressors and nearest neighbor GPs. We apply our model to data on two UK butterfly species, one common and widespread and one rare, using records from the Butterflies for the New Millennium database, producing occupancy indices spanning 45 years. Our framework can be applied to a wide range of taxa, providing measures of variation in species' occurrence, which are used to assess biodiversity change.

Trasplante hepático infantil: necesidad del país, normativa y legislación para priorizar a los pacientes pediátricos / Pediatric liver transplant, need of country, normative and legislation to prioritize pediatric patient

El Ecuador no contaba con un programa de trasplante hepático infantil y fue un problema para las autoridades de salud. Como alternativa de tratamiento se implementó un sistema de deriva-ción internacional para que los pacientes hayan accedido al trasplante en centros calificados, con la modalidad del donante vivo relacionado. Se logró acreditar en el 2019 en la ciudad de Cuenca, el primer programa de trasplante infantil para generar un cambio importante en el sis-tema de atenciones, pero fue necesario dejar clara todas las normas y regulaciones que involu-cren la prioridad de éstos pacientes y los aspectos técnicos quirúrgicos que han implicado la uti-lización de éste tipo de procedimientos como: split, hígado reducido y donante vivo relacionado.

Ecuador did not have a child liver transplant program and was a problem for health authorities. As an alternative treatment, an international referral system was implemented so that the patients had access to the transplant in qualified centers, with the modality of the living donor related. It was possible to accredit in 2019 in the city of Cuenca, the first child transplant program to generate a major change in the care system, but it was necessary to make clear all the rules and regulations that involve the priority of these patients and the technical aspects Surgical that have involved the use of these types of procedures such as: split, reduced liver and related living donor.

A stratified randomized double-blind phase II trial of celecoxib for treating patients with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia: The potential predictive value of VEGF serum levels: An NRG Oncology/Gynecologic Oncology Group study.

PURPOSE: To examine the effect of celecoxib on cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 3 (CIN 3). This is a NRG Oncology/Gynecologic Oncology Group study with translational biomarkers. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with CIN 3 were randomized to celecoxib 400mg once daily (67 patients) or placebo (63 patients) for 14-18weeks. The primary outcome measure was histologic regression. A test of equal probabilities of success between two therapies was conducted, using Fisher's Exact Test at alpha=10% and 90% power when the treatment arm boosted the probability of success by 30%. Translational analysis included cervical tissue HPV genotyping, COX-2 expression in biopsies, and serum celecoxib and VEGF levels. RESULTS: In primary analysis, histologic regression was not significantly higher in the celecoxib group (40%) than in the placebo group (34.1%). However, exploratory analyses suggest patients with high serum VEGF levels exhibited greater regression in the celecoxib arm (47.3%) than in the placebo arm (14.3%). Regression rates were similar by treatment group in patients with low VEGF. VEGF levels increased over time in the placebo group, but remained the same in the treatment group. COX-2 expression in cervical biopsies declined from pre-treatment to the end of treatment with celecoxib; it did not change with placebo. CONCLUSIONS: Celecoxib at 400mg once daily for 14-18weeks did not significantly decrease the severity of CIN 3 compared with placebo except, possibly, in subjects with high baseline VEGF. Therefore, serum VEGF levels might identify patients who may benefit from celecoxib or other therapies, personalizing future chemoprevention trials for CIN 3.

Preference elicitation tool for abnormal uterine bleeding treatment: a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: It is estimated that one-third of women will experience abnormal menstrual bleeding. The majority of these cases are not due to cancer or pregnancy complications and, as a result, women are faced with a variety of treatment alternatives, the selection of which is largely dependent on personal preferences for care rather than clinical outcomes. OBJECTIVE: This randomized trial was designed to evaluate a preference elicitation tool to promote physician-patient collaborative decision making for treatment of abnormal uterine bleeding (AUB). METHODS: Adaptive conjoint analysis (ACA) was used to create a preference elicitation tool in English and in Spanish. Women with AUB were enrolled to the study and randomly assigned to ACA or usual counseling at the initial clinic visit at four clinics (three in Indianapolis, IN, USA, and one in Southern Pines, NC, USA). The ACA tool elicited preferences across eight attributes: treatment efficacy; sexual function; medical care; cost; fertility; frequency of medication use; permanence; and recovery time. t tests were used to compare differences in the primary outcomes of decision regret and treatment satisfaction at the follow-up visit. The study was designed to have 80 % power to detect significant differences between groups for the primary outcomes of regret and satisfaction. RESULTS: Women were enrolled in the study between September 2009 and March 2012. 183 participants were randomized to ACA and 191 to usual counseling. Overall, mean (standard deviation) treatment satisfaction was high at 35.71 (9.72) (scale of 0-44), and decision regret was low at 25.9 (21.0) (scale of 0-100), creating ceiling effects for the selected outcome variables; there were no significant differences between the ACA and control groups at the follow-up assessment. There was a strong inverse relationship between age and decision regret (p = 0.007). Exploratory subgroup analysis in the youngest quartile comprising 64 women aged 19-35 years showed a statistically non-significant difference in mean regret scores for the ACA group versus usual counseling (24.6 vs. 34.6, respectively; p = 0.08). CONCLUSIONS: A preference elicitation tool at the initial consultation visit did not reduce decision regret or improve treatment satisfaction among patients with AUB; however, there is a need for additional research to further understand this tool's potential role in promoting collaborative decision making, which may be particularly important among younger women.

Results of a phase II randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of Polyphenon E in women with persistent high-risk HPV infection and low-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia.

OBJECTIVE: In vitro data and pilot data suggest that green tea catechins may possess chemopreventive activity for cervical cancer and precursor lesions. We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of Polyphenon E (decaffeinated and enriched green tea catechin extract) in women with persistent human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and low-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN1) to evaluate the potential of Polyphenon E for cervical cancer prevention. METHODS: Ninety-eight eligible women were randomized to receive either Polyphenon E (containing 800 mg epigallocatechin gallate) or placebo once daily for 4 months. The primary study outcome was oncogenic HPV clearance and clearance of CIN1. RESULTS: Polyphenon E was shown to be acceptable, safe and well tolerated. There was no difference in the response rate by treatment allocation. Complete response, defined as negative for high-risk HPV and normal histopathology, was noted in 7 (17.1%) and 6 (14.6%) women in the Polyphenon E and placebo arms, respectively. Progression, defined as persistent oncogenic HPV with histopathologic evidence of progression, was more common in the Polyphenon E group than in the placebo group [6 (14.6%) vs. 3 (7.7%)]. CONCLUSION: Based on the largest randomized placebo-controlled trial of a green tea extract for HPV related cervical disease, we conclude that 4 months of Polyphenon E intervention did not promote the clearance of persistent high-risk HPV and related CIN1. Further studies may be necessary to better delineate the risk factors for persistent HPV infection and biology of the disease to facilitate the evaluation of chemopreventive strategies.

Evaluation of fetuses in a study of intravenous immunoglobulin as preventive therapy for congenital heart block: Results of a multicenter, prospective, open-label clinical trial.

OBJECTIVE: The recurrence rate of anti-SSA/Ro-associated congenital heart block (CHB) is 17%. Sustained reversal of third-degree block has never been achieved. Based on potential reduction of maternal autoantibody titers as well as fetal inflammatory responses, intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) was evaluated as preventive therapy for CHB. METHODS: A multicenter, prospective, open-label study based on Simon's 2-stage optimal design was initiated. Enrollment criteria included the presence of anti-SSA/Ro antibodies in the mother, birth of a previous child with CHB/neonatal lupus rash, current treatment with < or = 20 mg/day of prednisone, and <12 weeks pregnant. IVIG (400 mg/kg) was given every 3 weeks from week 12 to week 24 of gestation. The primary outcome was the development of second-degree or third-degree CHB. RESULTS: Twenty mothers completed the IVIG protocol before the predetermined stopping rule of 3 cases of advanced CHB in the study was reached. CHB was detected at 19, 20, and 25 weeks; none of the cases occurred following the finding of an abnormal PR interval on fetal Doppler monitoring. One of these mothers had 2 previous children with CHB. One child without CHB developed a transient rash consistent with neonatal lupus. Sixteen children had no manifestations of neonatal lupus at birth. No significant changes in maternal titers of antibody to SSA/Ro, SSB/La, or Ro 52 kd were detected over the course of therapy or at delivery. There were no safety issues. CONCLUSION: This study establishes the safety of IVIG and the feasibility of recruiting pregnant women who have previously had a child with CHB. However, IVIG at low doses consistent with replacement does not prevent the recurrence of CHB or reduce maternal antibody titers.