Prospective predictive performance comparison between clinical gestalt and validated COVID-19 mortality scores.

Most COVID-19 mortality scores were developed at the beginning of the pandemic and clinicians now have more experience and evidence-based interventions. Therefore, we hypothesized that the predictive performance of COVID-19 mortality scores is now lower than originally reported. We aimed to prospectively evaluate the current predictive accuracy of six COVID-19 scores and compared it with the accuracy of clinical gestalt predictions. 200 patients with COVID-19 were enrolled in a tertiary hospital in Mexico City between September and December 2020. The area under the curve (AUC) of the LOW-HARM, qSOFA, MSL-COVID-19, NUTRI-CoV, and NEWS2 scores and the AUC of clinical gestalt predictions of death (as a percentage) were determined. In total, 166 patients (106 men and 60 women aged 56±9 years) with confirmed COVID-19 were included in the analysis. The AUC of all scores was significantly lower than originally reported: LOW-HARM 0.76 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.84) vs 0.96 (95% CI 0.94 to 0.98), qSOFA 0.61 (95% CI 0.53 to 0.69) vs 0.74 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.81), MSL-COVID-19 0.64 (95% CI 0.55 to 0.73) vs 0.72 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.75), NUTRI-CoV 0.60 (95% CI 0.51 to 0.69) vs 0.79 (95% CI 0.76 to 0.82), NEWS2 0.65 (95% CI 0.56 to 0.75) vs 0.84 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.90), and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio 0.65 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.73) vs 0.74 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.85). Clinical gestalt predictions were non-inferior to mortality scores, with an AUC of 0.68 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.77). Adjusting scores with locally derived likelihood ratios did not improve their performance; however, some scores outperformed clinical gestalt predictions when clinicians' confidence of prediction was <80%. Despite its subjective nature, clinical gestalt has relevant advantages in predicting COVID-19 clinical outcomes. The need and performance of most COVID-19 mortality scores need to be evaluated regularly.

Changes in Latina Women's Exposure to Cleaning Chemicals Associated with Switching from Conventional to "Green" Household Cleaning Products: The LUCIR Intervention Study.

BACKGROUND: Household cleaning products may be a significant source of chemical exposures, including carcinogens and suspected endocrine disruptors. OBJECTIVES: We characterized exposures during routine household cleaning and tested an intervention to reduce exposures to cleaning product chemicals. METHODS: The Lifting Up Communities with Interventions and Research (LUCIR) Study is a youth-led, community-based intervention project. Youth researchers conducted personal air monitoring with 50 Latina women while they cleaned their homes with their regular cleaning products (preintervention visit) and then 1 week later while they used "green" cleaning products provided by the study (postintervention visit). Air samples were analyzed for volatile and semivolatile organic compounds using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry and high-performance liquid chromatography. We compared pre- and postintervention air concentrations of 47 chemicals of concern, selected because they were on California's Proposition 65 list of carcinogens or reproductive/developmental toxicants or were suspected endocrine disruptors. Youth researchers were integrally involved in the study design, data collection, interpretation, and dissemination of findings. RESULTS: We observed statistically significant decreases in air concentrations of 17 chemicals of concern when participants switched to green cleaning products, including decreases in geometric mean concentrations of 1,4-dioxane (-46.4%), chloroform (-86.7%), benzene (-24.8%), naphthalene (-40.3%), toluene (-24.2%), and hexane (-35.5%). We observed significant increases in air concentrations of three fragrance compounds: the plant-derived terpene, beta-myrcene (221.5%), and the synthetic musks celestolide (31.0%) and galaxolide (79.6%). Almost all participants (98%) said the replacement products worked as well as their original products, and 90% said that they would consider buying the replacement products in the future. DISCUSSION: This study demonstrates that choosing cleaning products that are marketed as green may reduce exposure to several carcinogens and endocrine disruptors. Future studies should determine whether use of unscented green products would further reduce exposure to terpenes and musks. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP8831.

Estimating and Characterizing COVID-19 Deaths, Puerto Rico, March-July 2020.

OBJECTIVES: Using the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists (CSTE) classification guidelines, we characterized coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-associated confirmed and probable deaths in Puerto Rico during March-July 2020. We also estimated the total number of possible deaths due to COVID-19 in Puerto Rico during the same period. METHODS: We described data on COVID-19-associated mortality, in which the lower bound was the sum of confirmed and probable COVID-19 deaths and the upper bound was excess mortality, estimated as the difference between observed deaths and average expected deaths. We obtained data from the Puerto Rico Department of Health COVID-19 Mortality Surveillance System, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Electronic Disease Surveillance System Base System, and the National Center for Health Statistics. RESULTS: During March-July 2020, 225 COVID-19-associated deaths were identified in Puerto Rico (119 confirmed deaths and 106 probable deaths). The median age of decedents was 73 (interquartile range, 59-83); 60 (26.7%) deaths occurred in the Metropolitana region, and 140 (62.2%) deaths occurred among men. Of the 225 decedents, 180 (83.6%) had been hospitalized and 93 (41.3%) had required mechanical ventilation. Influenza and pneumonia (48.0%), sepsis (28.9%), and respiratory failure (27.1%) were the most common conditions contributing to COVID-19 deaths based on death certificates. Based on excess mortality calculations, as many as 638 COVID-19-associated deaths could have occurred during the study period, up to 413 more COVID-19-associated deaths than originally reported. CONCLUSIONS: Including probable deaths per the CSTE guidelines and monitoring all-cause excess mortality can lead to a better estimation of COVID-19-associated deaths and serve as a model to enhance mortality surveillance in other US jurisdictions.

Validez de la glucemia en ayuno como prueba diagnóstica para diabetes gestacional durante el primer trimestre del embarazo / Validity of blood glucose fasting test as diagnostic for gestational diabetes during the first trimester of pregnancy

Resumen Objetivo Determinar la validez de la glucemia en ayuno como valor único para establecer el diagnóstico de diabetes gestacional en el primer trimestre del embarazo. Calcular la sensibilidad, especificidad, valor predictivo positivo y negativo de esta prueba comparándola con el patrón de referencia "curva de tolerancia a la glucosa". Materiales y métodos Estudio observacional, retrospectivo, de casos y controles efectuado de 2014 a 2017. En el grupo de casos se incluyeron pacientes con diagnóstico de diabetes gestacional establecido entre las semanas 24 a 28 de embarazo mediante una curva de tolerancia a la glucosa. Para obtener el grupo control con resultado negativo de la curva se hizo un muestreo aleatorio. El análisis estadístico se efectuó con SPSS Statistics. Para la validez de la prueba se calculó la sensibilidad, especificidad, valores predictivos positivo y negativo. Resultados En el grupo de casos se obtuvieron 204 pacientes: 68.1% con glucemia en ayuno ≥ 92 mg/dL y 31.9% con valores normales de glucosa en el primer trimestre del embarazo. El 50% de las pacientes con sobrepeso y 100% de las pacientes con obesidad tuvieron glucemias ≥ 92 mg/dL. En el grupo control (n = 204) sólo 5.3% tuvo valores ≥ 92mg/dL. La razón de momios para diabetes gestacional con este valor de glucosa en el primer trimestre fue de 37.5; IC95%: 19.1-73.7. La sensibilidad de la prueba fue de 68% y la especificidad de 95%. Valor predictivo positivo de 93% y valor predictivo negativo de 75%. Conclusiones El valor de la glucosa en ayuno como única prueba diagnóstica de diabetes gestacional durante el primer trimestre tiene sensibilidad aceptable y buena especificidad en cualquier paciente con sobrepeso u obesidad.

Abstract Objectives To determine the validity of fasting blood glucose as the only value to perform the diagnosis of gestational diabetes in the first trimester of pregnancy, according to the criteria of the IADPSG. To calculate the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value of this test comparing it with the gold standard "Oral glucose tolerance test". Materials and methods Case-control retrospective study carried out from 2014 to 2017. In the case group, patients diagnosed with gestational diabetes were included in the week 24 to 28 of pregnancy through an oral glucose tolerance test. Fasting blood glucose was recorded in the first trimester of pregnancy. A random sampling was done to obtain the control group with the result of the negative test. Statistical analysis was performed with SPSS Statistics. For the valid ity of the test, sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, positive and negative likelihood ratio were calculated. Results In the case group, 204 patients were obtained, 68.1% with fasting blood glucose ≥ 92 mg/dL and 31.9% with normal glucose values in the first trimester of pregnancy. 50% of overweight patients and 100% of patients with obesity had glycemia ≥ 92 mg/dL. In the control group of 204 patients, only 5.3% had values ≥ 92 mg/dL. The OR for the development of gestational diabetes with this glucose value in the first trimester was 37.5 95%CI: 19.1-73.7. The sensitivity of the test was 68%, specificity 95%. Conclusions The fasting glucose value as the only diagnostic test of gestational diabetes during the first trimester has an acceptable sensitivity and a good specificity especially in patients with overweight or obesity.