Feasible supply of steel and cement within a carbon budget is likely to fall short of expected global demand.

The current decarbonization strategy for the steel and cement industries is inherently dependent on the build-out of infrastructure, including for CO2 transport and storage, renewable electricity, and green hydrogen. However, the deployment of this infrastructure entails considerable uncertainty. Here we explore the global feasible supply of steel and cement within Paris-compliant carbon budgets, explicitly considering uncertainties in the deployment of infrastructure. Our scenario analysis reveals that despite substantial growth in recycling- and hydrogen-based production, the feasible steel supply will only meet 58-65% (interquartile range) of the expected baseline demand in 2050. Cement supply is even more uncertain due to limited mitigation options, meeting only 22-56% (interquartile range) of the expected baseline demand in 2050. These findings pose a two-fold challenge for decarbonizing the steel and cement industries: on the one hand, governments need to expand essential infrastructure rapidly; on the other hand, industries need to prepare for the risk of deployment failures, rather than solely waiting for large-scale infrastructure to emerge. Our feasible supply scenarios provide compelling evidence of the urgency of demand-side actions and establish benchmarks for the required level of resource efficiency.

Greenhouse gas emissions from nitrogen fertilizers could be reduced by up to one-fifth of current levels by 2050 with combined interventions.

Food security relies on nitrogen fertilizers, but its production and use account for approximately 5% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Meeting climate change targets requires the identification and prioritization of interventions across the whole life cycle of fertilizers. Here we have mapped the global flows of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers and manure and their corresponding GHG emissions across their life cycle. We have then explored the maximum mitigation potential of various interventions to reduce emissions by 2050. We found that approximately two-thirds of fertilizer emissions take place after their deployment in croplands. Increasing nitrogen-use efficiency is the single most effective strategy to reduce emissions. Yet this should be combined with decarbonization of fertilizer production. Using currently available technologies, GHG emissions of fertilizers could be reduced up to approximately one-fifth of current levels by 2050.

What to Do about Plastics? Lessons from a Study of United Kingdom Plastics Flows.

Plastics are one of the most widely used materials on the planet, owing to their usefulness, durability, and relatively low cost. Yet, making, using, and disposing of plastics create important environmental impacts, most notably greenhouse gas emissions and waste pollution. Reducing these impacts while still enjoying the benefits of plastic use requires an integrated assessment of all of the life cycles of plastics. This has rarely been attempted due to the wide variety of polymers and the lack of knowledge on the final uses and applications of plastics. Using trade statistics for 464 product codes, we have mapped the flows of the 11 most widely used polymers from production into six end-use applications for the United Kingdom (UK) in 2017. With a dynamic material flow analysis, we have anticipated demand and waste generation until 2050. We found that the demand for plastics seems to have saturated in the UK, with an annual demand of 6 Mt, responsible for approximately 26 Mt CO2e/a. Owing to a limited recycling capacity in the UK, only 12% of UK plastic waste is recycled domestically, leading to 21% of the waste being exported, labeled as recycling, but mostly to countries with poor practices of waste management. Increasing recycling capacity in the UK could both reduce GHG emissions and prevent waste pollution. This intervention should be complemented with improved practices in the production of primary plastics, which currently accounts for 80% of UK plastic emissions.

What Contribution Could Industrial Symbiosis Make to Mitigating Industrial Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions in Bulk Material Production?

In industrial symbiosis, byproducts and wastes are used to substitute other process inputs, with the goal of reducing the environmental impact of production. Potentially, such symbiosis could reduce greenhouse gas emissions; although there exists literature exploring this at specific industrial sites, there has not yet been a quantitative global assessment of the potential toward climate mitigation by industrial symbiosis in bulk material production of steel, cement, paper, and aluminum. A model based on physical production recipes is developed to estimate global mass flows for production of these materials with increasing levels of symbiosis. The results suggest that even with major changes to byproduct utilization in cement production, the emission reduction potential is low (7% of the total bulk material system emissions) and will decline as coal-fired electricity generation and blast furnace steel production are phased out. Introducing new technologies for heat recovery allows a greater potential reduction in emissions (up to 18%), but the required infrastructure and technologies have not yet been deployed at scale. Therefore, further industrial symbiosis is unlikely to make a significant contribution to GHG emission mitigation in bulk material production.

Material Flow Analysis with Multiple Material Characteristics to Assess the Potential for Flat Steel Prompt Scrap Prevention and Diversion without Remelting.

Thirty-two percent of the liquid metal used to make flat steel products in Europe does not end up in a final product. Sixty percent of this material is instead scrapped during manufacturing and the remainder during fabrication of finished steel products. Although this scrap is collected and recycled, remelting this scrap requires approximately 2 MWh/t, but some of this material could instead be diverted for use in other applications without remelting. However, this diversion depends not just on the mass of scrapped steel but also on its material characteristics. To enhance our understanding of the potential for such scrap diversion, this paper presents a novel material flow analysis of flat steel produced in Europe in 2013. This analysis considers the flow of steel characterized not only by mass but, for the first time, also by grade, thickness, and coating. The results show that thin-gauge galvanized drawing steel is the most commonly demanded steel grade across the industry, and most scrap of this grade is generated by the automotive industry. There are thus potential opportunities for preventing and diverting scrap of this grade. We discuss the role of the geometric compatibility of parts and propose tessellating blanks for various car manufacturers in the same coil of steel to increase the utilization rates of steel.

How Will Copper Contamination Constrain Future Global Steel Recycling?

Copper in steel causes metallurgical problems, but is pervasive in end-of-life scrap and cannot currently be removed commercially once in the melt. Contamination can be managed to an extent by globally trading scrap for use in tolerant applications and dilution with primary iron sources. However, the viability of long-term strategies can only be evaluated with a complete characterization of copper in the global steel system and this is presented in this paper. The copper concentration of flows along the 2008 steel supply chain is estimated from a survey of literature data and compared with estimates of the maximum concentration that can be tolerated in steel products. Estimates of final steel demand and scrap supply by sector are taken from a global stock-saturation model to determine when the amount of copper in the steel cycle will exceed that which can be tolerated. Best estimates show that quantities of copper arising from conventional scrap preparation can be managed in the global steel system until 2050 assuming perfectly coordinated trade and extensive dilution, but this strategy will become increasingly impractical. Technical and policy interventions along the supply chain are presented to close product loops before this global constraint.

Material Stock Demographics: Cars in Great Britain.

Recent literature on material flow analysis has been focused on quantitative characterization of past material flows. Fewer analyses exist on past and prospective quantification of stocks of materials in-use. Some of these analyses explore the composition of products' stocks, but a focus on the characterization of material stocks and its relation with service delivery is often neglected. We propose the use of the methods of human demography to characterize material stocks, defined herein as stock demographics, exploring the insights that this approach could provide for the sustainable management of materials. We exemplify an application of stock demographics by characterizing the composition and service delivery of iron, steel, and aluminum stocks of cars in Great Britain, 2002-2012. The results show that in this period the stock has become heavier, it is traveling less, and it is idle for more time. The visualization of material stocks' dynamics demonstrates the pace of product replacement as a function of its usefulness and enables the formulation of policy interventions and the exploration of future trends.