Bayesian inference for asymptomatic COVID-19 infection rates.

To strengthen inferences meta-analyses are commonly used to summarize information from a set of independent studies. In some cases, though, the data may not satisfy the assumptions underlying the meta-analysis. Using three Bayesian methods that have a more general structure than the common meta-analytic ones, we can show the extent and nature of the pooling that is justified statistically. In this article, we reanalyze data from several reviews whose objective is to make inference about the COVID-19 asymptomatic infection rate. When it is unlikely that all of the true effect sizes come from a single source researchers should be cautious about pooling the data from all of the studies. Our findings and methodology are applicable to other COVID-19 outcome variables, and more generally.

A statistical reevaluation of the data used in the Lanphear et al. ( 2005 ) pooled-analysis that related low levels of blood lead to intellectual deficits in children.

A pooled-analysis by Lanphear et al. (2005) of seven cohort studies of the association between blood lead (BPb) concentrations in children and measures of their intelligence concluded that "environmental lead exposure in children who have maximal blood lead levels <7.5 µg/dL is associated with intellectual deficits." This study has played a prominent role in shaping the public understanding of the effects upon children's IQ of low BPb exposures (e.g., BPb ≤ 10 µg/dL). Here we present a reanalysis of the data used by Lanphear et al. to evaluate the robustness of their conclusions. Our analysis differed from that of Lanphear et al. primarily in how we controlled for non-lead variables (allowing a number of them to be site-specific), how we defined summary measures of BPb exposure, and in how we decided which BPb measures and transformations best modeled the data. We also reproduced the Lanphear et al. analysis. Although we found some small errors and questionable decisions by Lanphear et al. that, taken alone, could cause doubt in their conclusions, our reanalysis tended to support their conclusions. We concluded that there was statistical evidence that the exposure-response is non-linear over the full range of BPb evaluated in these studies, which implies that, for a given increase in blood lead, the associated IQ decrement is greater at lower BPb levels. However at BPb below 10 µg/dL, the exposure-response is adequately modeled as linear. We also found statistical evidence for an association with IQ among children who had maximal measured BPb levels ≤7 µg/dL, and concurrent BPb levels as low as ≤5 µg/dL.

Kernel duration and modulation gain in a coupled oscillator model and their implications on the progression of seizures.

The coupled oscillator model has previously been used for the simulation of neuronal activities in in vitro rat hippocampal slice seizure data and the evaluation of seizure suppression algorithms. Each model unit can be described as either an oscillator which can generate action potential spike trains without inputs, or a threshold-based unit. With the change of only one parameter, each unit can either be an oscillator or a threshold-based spiking unit. This would eliminate the need of a new set of equations for each type of unit. Previous analysis has suggested that long kernel duration and imbalance of inhibitory feedback can cause the system to intermittently transition into and out of ictal activities. The state transitions of seizure-like events were investigated here; specifically, how the system excitability may change when the system underwent transitions in the preictal and postictal processes. Analysis showed that the area of the excitation kernel is positively correlated with the mean firing rate of ictal activity. The kernel duration is also correlated to the amount of ictal activity. The transition into ictal involved the escape from the saddle point foci in the state space trajectory identified using Newton's method.