Metabolic acidosis in critically ill patients with cirrhosis: Epidemiology and short-term mortality risk factors.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Metabolic acidosis is a common complication in patients with cirrhosis at the intensive care units (ICUs) and associated with increased mortality. The aim of our research was to explore the epidemiology and risk factors of metabolic acidosis in critically ill patients with cirrhosis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 975 patients with cirrhosis were selected into our study, and all participants were followed up for at least 28 days. Cox regression model and machine-learning algorithm were used to identify the importance of different risk factors, respectively. Finally, an improved prognostic model as Model for End-stage Liver Disease and metabolic acidosis (MELD-MA) was developed. RESULTS: Among the 975 patients with liver cirrhosis, 506 had metabolic acidosis, including 257 patients who had decompensated metabolic acidosis at ICU admission. The 28-day mortality was 41% (206/506) in patients with metabolic acidosis. Bilirubin (hazard ratio (HR): 1.023, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.011-1.036), international normalized ratio (HR: 1.527, 95% CI: 1.332-1.750), pH (HR: 0.173, 95% CI: 0.047-0.640), BE-Lac (HR: 0.907, 95% CI: 0.868-0.948), and BE-Na (HR: 0.923, 95% CI: 0.859-0.991) were considered as independent prognostic parameters for 28-day mortality. MELD-NA had significantly higher discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.79) than MELD and Child-Pugh score. CONCLUSION: Critically ill patients with cirrhosis have a high mortality rate and poor prognosis because of the high prevalence of metabolic acidosis. Lactic acidosis is the worst prognosis of all types of metabolic acidosis. MELD-MA performs well on the short-term mortality assessment in critically ill patients with cirrhosis and metabolic acidosis.

Prognostic value of serum lactate kinetics in critically ill patients with cirrhosis and acute-on-chronic liver failure: a multicenter study.

Lactate clearance (Δ24Lac) was reported to be inversely associated with mortality in critically ill patients. The aim of our study was to assess the value of Δ24Lac for the prognosis of critically ill patients with cirrhosis and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). We analysed 954 cirrhotic patients with hyperlactatemia admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) in the United States and eastern China. The patients were followed up for at least 1 year. In the unadjusted model, we observed a 15% decrease in hospital mortality with each 10% increase in Δ24Lac. In the fully adjusted model, the relationship between the risk of death and Δ24Lac remained statistically significant (hospital mortality: odds ratio [OR] 0.84, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.78- 0.90, p < 0.001; 90-day mortality: hazard ratio [HR] 0.94, 95%CI 0.92- 0.97, p < 0.001; for Δ24Lac per 10% increase). Similar results were found in patients with ACLF. We developed a Δ24Lac-adjusted score (LiFe-Δ24Lac), which performed significantly better in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) than the original LiFe score for predicting mortality. Lactate clearance is an independent predictor of death, and the LiFe-Δ24Lac score is a practical tool for stratifying the risk of death.

Age shock index and age-modified shock index are strong predictors of outcomes in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction patients undergoing emergency percutaneous coronary intervention.

BACKGROUND: Early identification of high-risk patients provides clinicians with greater decision-making time and better informs strategies to cope with disease. The predictive values of age shock index (age SI) and age-modified shock index (age MSI) in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients undergoing emergency percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) have rarely been reported, especially compared with those for SI, MSI, and the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Nine hundred and eighty-three STEMI patients undergoing emergency PCI between January 2014 and September 2017 were analyzed in a retrospective cohort study. The primary outcomes were rates of in-hospital cardiovascular events, and 6-month and long-term all-cause mortality. RESULTS: In multivariate analyses, the predictive values of age SI and age MSI were comparable to that of the GRACE score, but superior to those of SI and MSI for in-hospital cardiac mortality [age SI: odds ratio (OR) = 1.05, P < 0.001, area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC-AUC) = 0.805, P < 0.001; age MSI: OR = 1.04, P < 0.001, ROC-AUC = 0.813, P < 0.001; GRACE score: OR = 1.03, P < 0.001, ROC-AUC = 0.827, P < 0.001], 6-month all-cause mortality (age SI: OR = 1.04, P < 0.001, ROC-AUC = 0.791, P < 0.001; age MSI: OR = 1.03, P < 0.001, ROC-AUC = 0.801, P < 0.001; GRACE score: ROC-AUC = 0.828, P < 0.001), long-term all-cause mortality [age SI: hazard ratio (HR) = 1.06, P < 0.001, ROC-AUC = 0.798, P < 0.001; age MSI: HR = 1.04, P < 0.001, ROC-AUC = 0.84, P < 0.001; GRACE score: ROC-AUC = 0.822, P < 0.001] and post-discharge all-cause mortality (age SI: HR = 1.05, P < 0.001, ROC-AUC = 0.78, P = 0.001; age MSI: HR = 1.05, P < 0.001, ROC-AUC = 0.789, P < 0.001; GRACE score: ROC-AUC = 0.812, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Age SI and age MSI are stronger predictors than SI and MSI for in-hospital cardiovascular events, and 6-month and long-term all-cause mortality in STEMI patients undergoing emergency PCI. Age SI and age MSI appear to be convenient and simpler indicators than the GRACE score.

Model for end-stage liver disease and pneumonia: An improved scoring model for critically ill cirrhotic patients with pneumonia.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Critically ill patients with cirrhosis with pneumonia are at an increased risk for mortality. Only a few accurate predictive models are existing specific to these patients. The aim of the present study was to compare the existing prognostic models and to develop an improved mortality risk model for patients with cirrhosis and pneumonia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 231 patients were enrolled in our study (70% training and 30% validation cohorts). All participants were followed up for at least 21 days. Model for End-stage Liver Disease and Pneumonia (MELD-P) was derived by the Cox proportional hazards model. The performances of prognostic scoring systems were compared by calculation of the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. RESULTS: MELD-P showed better discriminative capabilities than existing scoring systems. Four clinical variables, including loge bilirubin (hazard ratio (HR) 1.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.73), loge international normalized ratio (HR 3.57, 95% CI 1.30-9.78), loge pulse oxygen saturation/fraction of inspired oxygen (HR 0.38, 95% CI 0.14-0.99), and vasopressors used (HR 3.72, 95% CI 1.85-7.49), were considered as independent prognostic values associated with 21-day mortality. MELD-P had AUROC curve values of 0.78 (95% CI 0.71-0.84) in predicting in-hospital mortality, 0.78 (95% CI 0.70-0.84) at 21-day, 0.88 (95% CI 0.82-0.93) at 14-day, and 0.87 (95% CI 0.81-0.92) at 7-day. A similar result was obtained in validation cohort. CONCLUSION: MELD-P, as the first model specifically designed to evaluate the risk of mortality in critically ill patients with cirrhosis and pneumonia, performs well on the mortality assessment of short-term mortality.

Prognostic value of international normalized ratio to albumin ratio among critically ill patients with cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Critically ill patients with cirrhosis are at an increased risk of mortality. Our study aimed to externally validate the ability of the prothrombin time-international normalized ratio to albumin ratio (PTAR), an objective and simple scoring system, to predict 90-day mortality in critically ill patients with cirrhosis. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 865 patients were entered into the study, and all the participants were followed up for at least 90 days. Clinical parameters on the first day of intensive care unit admission were included to compare survivors with nonsurvivors. RESULTS: After multivariable adjustment, the association between the risk of 90-day mortality and PTAR remained statistically significant with a hazard ratio of 2.71 (95% confidence interval: 1.99-3.68). The PTAR score showed good discrimination ability for predicting 90-day mortality with an area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.72 (95% confidence interval: 0.68-0.75). To improve its feasibility, we regrouped the PTAR scores into three levels of risk (low risk: <0.55, intermediate risk: 0.55-1.00, and high risk: ≥1.00); the 90-day mortality rates were 20.1% (74/368), 41.7% (168/403), and 73.4% (69/94), respectively. CONCLUSION: The PTAR score system is a convenient and practical tool for predicting the prognosis of critically ill patients with cirrhosis.

Risk scores for predicting dysphagia in critically ill patients after cardiac surgery.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed at developing and validating a scoring model to stratify critically ill patients after cardiac surgery based on risk for dysphagia, a common but often neglected complication. METHODS: Data were prospectively collected and analyzed from January 2016 to June 2017 from 395 consecutive post cardiac surgery patients at the cardiac care unit (CCU) at a single center; 103 (26.1%) developed dysphagia. Univariate and multivariate logistic analyses were used to identify independent predictors for dysphagia. The survival nomogram was developed on the basis of a multivariable Cox model, which allowed us to obtain survival probability estimations. The predictive performance of the nomogram was verified for discrimination and calibration. Areas under receiver operating characteristic curve analysis were used to illustrate and evaluate the diagnostic performance of the novel model. RESULTS: The final novel scoring model, named SSG-OD, consists of three independent factors: gastric intubation (OR = 1.024, 95% CI 1.015-1.033), sedative drug use duration (OR = 1.031, 95% CI 1.001-1.063) and stroke or not (OR = 6.182, 95% CI 3.028-12.617). SSG-OD identified patients at risk for dysphagia with sensitivity of 68.5% and specificity of 89.0% (OR = 0.833, 95% CI: 0.782-0.884). The positive and negative likelihood ratios were 6.22 and 0.35. CONCLUSIONS: The novel SSG-OD scoring system to risk stratify CCU patients for dysphagia is an easy-to-use bedside prognostication aid with good predictive performance and the potential to reduce aspiration incidence and accelerate recovery.