Validation and update of a multivariable prediction model for the identification and management of patients at risk for hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: A hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction model (ASAP), including age, sex, and the biomarkers alpha-fetoprotein and prothrombin induced by vitamin K absence-II, showed potential clinical value in the early detection of HCC. We validated and updated the model in a real-world cohort and promoted its transferability to daily clinical practice. METHODS: This retrospective cohort analysis included 1012 of the 2479 eligible patients aged 35 years or older undergoing surveillance for HCC. The data were extracted from the electronic medical records. Biomarker values within the test-to-diagnosis interval were used to validate the ASAP model. Due to its unsatisfactory calibration, three logistic regression models were constructed to recalibrate and update the model. Their discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility were compared. The performance statistics of the final updated model at several risk thresholds are presented. The outcomes of 855 non-HCC patients were further assessed during a median of 10.2 months of follow-up. Statistical analyses were performed using packages in R software. RESULTS: The ASAP model had superior discriminative performance in the validation cohort [C-statistic = 0.982, (95% confidence interval 0.972-0.992)] but significantly overestimated the risk of HCC (intercept - 3.243 and slope 1.192 in the calibration plot), reducing its clinical usefulness. Recalibration-in-the-large, which exhibited performance comparable to that of the refitted model revision, led to the retention of the excellent discrimination and substantial improvements in the calibration and clinical utility, achieving a sensitivity of 100% at the median prediction probability of the absence of HCC (1.3%). The probability threshold of 1.3% and the incidence of HCC in the cohort (15.5%) were used to stratify the patients into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups. The cumulative HCC incidences in the non-HCC patients significantly differed among the risk groups (log-rank test, p-value < 0.001). The 3-month, 6-month and 18-month cumulative incidences in the low-risk group were 0.6%, 0.9% and 0.9%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The ASAP model is an accurate tool for HCC risk estimation that requires recalibration before use in a new region because calibration varies with clinical environments. Additionally, rational risk stratification and risk-based management decision-making, e.g., 3-month follow-up recommendations for targeted individuals, helped improve HCC surveillance, which warrants assessment in larger cohorts.

Diwu Yanggan capsule improving liver histological response for patients with HBeAg-negative chronic hepatitis B: a randomized controlled clinical trial.

The number of patients with hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-negative chronic hepatitis B (CHB) has shown a significant upward trend in recent years. However, antiviral drugs are not very effective. Regulation of liver regeneration by traditional Chinese medicine is an important way to improve clinical efficacy. This randomized controlled trial assessed the efficacy and safety of DWYG in patients with HBeAg-negative CHB. Overall, 130 subjects were randomized to (A) DWYG 1.2 g three times daily (n = 44), (B) entecavir 0.5 mg/day (n = 43) in combination with DWYG or (C) entecavir 0.5 mg/day (n = 43). The liver histological response rate was assessed as the primary efficacy endpoint. The results showed that the liver histological response rate in the combination treatment group was significantly higher than that in the group with entecavir (71.43% versus 22.22%; P = 0.036) after 48 weeks of treatment. And the pathological progression rate of liver in the group with DWYG was significantly lower than that of the entecavir group during 228 weeks of follow-up (0% versus 60.00%; P = 0.019). No significant adverse events occurred during the study. In conclusion, treating HBeAg-negative CHB with DWYG is safe and effective to improve liver histological response.

Relationship between cervical disease and infection with human papillomavirus types 16 and 18, and herpes simplex virus 1 and 2.

Persistent infection with high-risk HPV, particularly Type HPV 16 and 18, is necessary in the development of cervical cancer, but apart from HPV infection, other causative factors of most cervical cancers remain unknown. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of HPV 16 and HPV 18 and HSV 1 and HSV 2 in cervical samples, and to assess the role of HSVs in cervical carcinogenesis. Two hundred thirty-three healthy controls and 567 cases (333 of cervicitis, 210 of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, and 24 of squamous cell carcinoma) in cervical exfoliative cells were tested for HPV 16, HPV 18, HSV 1, and HSV 2 DNA using the triplex real-time polymerase chain reaction method. In contrast to healthy women, positive rate of HPV is related significantly to cervical lesions (odds ratios (ORs) = 4.1, P < 0.01 for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia; ORs = 24.9, P < 0.01 for squamous cell carcinoma), but not cervicitis (ORs = 2.3, P > 0.05). HSV 2 prevalence in cervical intraepithelial neoplasia and squamous cell carcinoma was higher than in healthy women (ORs = 4.9, P < 0.05 for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia; ORs = 4.7, P < 0.05 for squamous cell carcinoma). HSV 2 coinfection with HPV in cervical intraepithelial neoplasia and squamous cell carcinoma was strongly higher than in healthy women (ORs = 34.2, P < 0.01 for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia; ORs = 61.1, P < 0.01 for squamous cell carcinoma). The obtained results indicated that the presence of HPV is associated closely with cervical cancer, and that HSV 2 infection or co-infection with HPV might be involved in cervical cancer development, while HSV 1 might not be involved.

[Study on the mechanism of acupoint sticking therapy with Chuan fuling for treatment of asthma model rats].

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the mechanism of the acupoint sticking therapy with Chuanfuling for preventing and treating asthma. METHODS: Thirty male SD rats were randomly divided into a control group (normal saline, p.i. +no acupoint sticking+ normal saline, spray inhalation), model group (normal saline with ovalbumin, p.i. +no acupoint sticking+ normal saline with ovalbumin, spray inhalation), and acupoint sticking group (normal saline with ovalbumin, p.i. +acupoint sticking with Chuan fuling+normal saline with ovalbumin, spray inhalation), 10 rats in each group. The incubation period of nodding breath, symptom of asthmatic attack, expression level of interleukin-4 mRNA (IL-4 mRNA) and interferon-gamma mRNA (IF-gamma mRNA), as well as pathological changes on the middle leaf of right lung, were observed in each group. RESULTS: (1) Comparing with the control group, the model group was showed that the expression level of IL-4 mRNA in the peripheral blood cells (PBMC) was increased, while hyperemia, edema and eosinocyte (EOS) invasion of lung tissue was more serious (P < 0.01). (2) Comparing with the model group, the acupoint sticking group was showed that the expression level of IL-4 mRNA in PBMC was decreased, the incubation period of nodding breath was prolonged for induced asthma on the fifth and seventh time with lower frequency, while in the lung tissue EOS invasion was reduced (P < 0.05), but there were no significant changes on the hyperemia and edema (P > 0.05). CONCLUSION: Acupoint sticking for treating asthma of model rats with Chuanfuling can inhibit the expression level of IL-4 mRNA in PBMC, and the release of the inflammatory mediator and cytokine from the EOS to the air passage, in order to reduce the injury of epithelial layer and high reaction on the air passage.