Evaluating the longevity of in-stream phosphorus legacies: A downstream cascade of recovery following point source remediation.

In-stream phosphorus (P) legacies cause lags between upstream remediation and downstream load reductions. However, the length of these lags is largely unknown, especially for long stream distances. As a result, lag time estimates at the large-watershed scale have been abstract and sometimes understated. Here, we leverage a large area watershed model with newly improved in-stream P simulation (SWAT+P.R&R) to evaluate the magnitude, longevity, and spatial cascade of legacy P remobilization in a U.S. corn belt watershed. Our results illustrate the "spiraling recovery" of P loads after a hypothetical point source remediation, where locations further downstream take longer to recover to baseline load levels. At the watershed outlet, in-stream legacy P contributions are equivalent to 30% of the baseline average annual P loads for three years after remediation. In-stream legacies do not approach exhaustion (95% remobilized) until at least 9 years after remediation. In hypothetical weather scenarios beginning with dry years, legacy contributions persist even longer. These findings (1) suggest that in-stream legacies could impact P loads for years to decades in large river basins, (2) support explicit accounting for spatial scale in future studies of in-stream legacies, and (3) provide concerning implications for water quality recovery in large river basins.

Dual water-electricity cooperation improves economic benefits and water equality in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin.

Transboundary river cooperation provides an effective pathway to maintain regional security and sustainable development; however, its implementation is a pressing and prominent concern due to lack of appropriate compensation measures and effective incentive strategies. Here we develop a dual water-electricity cooperation (DWEC) framework that combines water and electricity trading to meet the often-conflicting demands of participating countries. The results from the Lancang-Mekong River Basin reveal that substantial benefits in both economic and social aspects can be achieved through coupling regional water and electricity trades. Economic benefits can be obtained by expanding cooperation space and thereby greatly improving the willingness of countries to participate in basin-wide cooperation. Electricity trading plays a key role in loss compensation for water exporters, ensuring no loss for any party and maximizing basin-wide benefits. Furthermore, the DWEC improves regional water use equality, especially in water shortage periods when there is severe competition among water users. The proposed cooperation framework provides a viable way to implement cooperation in transboundary river basins.

Integrated Agricultural Practices and Engineering Technologies Enhance Synergies of Food-Energy-Water Systems in Corn Belt Watersheds.

Interconnected food, energy, water systems (FEWS) require systems level understanding to design efficient and effective management strategies and policies that address potentially competing challenges of production and environmental quality. Adoption of agricultural best management practices (BMPs) can reduce nonpoint source phosphorus (P) loads, but there are also opportunities to recover P from point sources, which could also reduce demand for mineral P fertilizer derived from declining geologic reserves. Here, we apply the Integrated Technology-Environment-Economics Model to investigate the consequences of watershed-scale portfolios of agricultural BMPs and environmental and biological technologies (EBTs) for co-benefits of FEWS in Corn Belt watersheds. Via a pilot study with a representative agro-industrial watershed with high P and nitrogen discharge, we show achieving the nutrient reduction goals in the watershed; BMP-only portfolios require extensive and costly land-use change (19% of agricultural land) to perennial energy grasses, while portfolios combining BMPs and EBTs can improve water quality while recovering P from corn biorefineries and wastewater streams with only 4% agricultural land-use change. The potential amount of P recovered from EBTs is estimated as 2 times as much as the agronomic P requirement in the watershed, showing the promise of the P circular economy. These findings inform solution development based on the combination of agricultural BMPs and EBTs for the cobenefits of FEWS in Corn Belt watersheds.

Water Availability for Biorefineries in the Contiguous United States and the Implications for Bioenergy Production Distribution.

Renewable biofuel production depends on many factors, including feedstock availability, refinery and shipment infrastructure, and in particular, water availability. This study assesses water requirement and availability for mainstream biorefinery technologies in the contiguous United States (CONUS). The assessment is conducted in newly defined spatial units, namely, biorefinery planning boundaries, considering feedstock availability, transportation cost, and refinery capacity requirement for cost-effectiveness. The results suggest that the total biorefinery water use in the CONUS by 2030 will be low compared to the total water availability. However, biorefinery water requirements can aggravate the water stress situation in many regions, including the Great Plains, California Central Valley, and the upper Columbia-Snake River basin in Washington. Bioenergy productions in these regions can be largely constrained by water. It is projected that biofuel production will concentrate in Northern Plains, Lake States, and Corn Belt regions, which contribute 94.4% of the conventional, 86.1% of biodiesel, and 54.8% of cellulosic biofuel production mandated by the renewable fuel standard. If biorefineries are constrained to use less than 10% of the locally available water, up to 7% of planned cellulosic biofuel production will be affected. Findings from this study can aid the sustainable planning of national bioenergy production.

Seasonal Risk Assessment of Water-Electricity Nexus Systems under Water Consumption Policy Constraint.

Previous studies have estimated power plant cooling water consumption based on the long-term average cooling water consumption intensity (WI: water consumption per unit of electricity generation) at an annual scale. However, the impacts of the seasonality of WI and streamflow on electricity generation are less well understood. In this study, a risk assessment method is developed to explore the seasonal risk of water-electricity nexus based on the Integrated Environmental Control Model, which can simulate variable WIs in response to daily weather conditions and avoid underestimation in WIs as well as nexus risk during dry seasons. Three indicators, reliability, maximum time to recovery, and total power generation loss, are proposed to quantify the seasonal nexus risk under water consumption policy constraint represented by the allowed maximum percentage of water consumption to streamflow. The applications of the method in two representative watersheds demonstrate that the nexus risk is highly seasonal and is greatly impacted by the seasonal variability of streamflow rather than annual average water resources conditions on which most previous studies are based. The nexus is found more risky in the watershed with almost double mean annual streamflow and greater streamflow variability, compared with the watershed with less streamflow variability.

Is water shortage risk decreased at the expense of deteriorating water quality in a large water supply reservoir?

Reservoir operations affect both the quantity and quality of stored and discharged water. Hedging rules (HRs) are commonly used in water supply reservoir operations to ration water delivery and decrease water shortage risk. However, the increased carryover storage with hedging may aggravate reservoir eutrophication through complex effects on hydrodynamic, temperature, light, nutrient, and sediment conditions. The influencing mechanisms are unclear and require further investigation. This study applies a mathematical modeling approach to comparing the effects of standard operation policy (SOP) and HR, discussing the processes and driving factors, and exploring the relationship between water shortage and water quality indicators. We simulate reservoir operation by SOP and optimize HR to generate water supply schedules, and run a quasi-3D water quality model to simulate reservoir hydrodynamic conditions, nutrient cycles, water-sediment exchanges, and algal dynamics under various water supply schedules. The Danjiangkou Reservoir, the water source for China's South-North Water Transfer Project, is used as a case study. The HR for this reservoir decreases its water shortage risk from 22% under SOP to 8%. Modeling results find that the HR increases sediment phosphorus (P) release by 285.3 tons (5.7%) annually as a consequence of extended reservoir submerged area and aggravated hypolimnetic hypoxia. Increased P release can support algal growth, but this effect is set off by the enhancement of light limiting effect caused by higher storages under HR, consequently decreasing the annual mean chlorophyll a concentration in the deep reservoir by 18%. The HR also improves the horizontal mixing of water by changing the hydraulic retention time and flow velocity field, which mitigates algal bloom risks in the surrounding shallow-water zones but deteriorates water quality of the release to downstream. The water quality analysis offers implications for reservoir managers to coordinate their efforts in mitigating risks of water shortage and water quality degradation.

Revealing the water-energy-food nexus in the Upper Yellow River Basin through multi-objective optimization for reservoir system.

Since the 21st century, the natural runoff from the headwater region of the Yellow River has generally been decreasing, resulting in a particularly prominent contradiction in utilization of water resources. In this study, key components were identified from the perspective of water-energy-food (WEF) nexus, and a WEF nexus model was established for the Upper Yellow River Basin (UYRB), taking into consideration the benefits of water supply to the middle and lower reaches of Yellow River, food growth in major food-producing areas in the UYRB and hydropower utilization of the UYR reservoir system. The Multi-start Solver of LINGO and the ε constraint method were used to carry out multi-objective optimization, revealing the trade-off between the WEF benefits. 1) The model computed the Pareto non-inferior set of solutions for the electricity generated by the UYR reservoir system and the degree to which the water demands of the main intake areas (Ningxia and Inner Mongolia irrigated areas, and Toudaoguai section) are satisfied, quantifying the improvement room for the overall benefits brought about by the jointly optimal operation of the WEF sectors. 2) The historical operation of Longyangxia Reservoir, a multi-year storage reservoir, was evaluated, the results of which show that the realization of the WEF benefits is determined by the proper operation of Longyangxia Reservoir. To guarantee the overall benefits in the long term, Longyangxia Reservoir should maintain a high water level. 3) The trade-offs between the WEF benefits under different boundary conditions were discussed, including various initial/final fore-bay water levels of Longyangxia Reservoir and inflows of various total water amounts from the headwater region of the UYRB. The research reveals the WEF nexus in the UYRB under different scenarios, and moreover, the formulated multi-objective optimization model is a good example that can be extended to other similar WEF nexus systems worldwide.

Solving the mystery of vanishing rivers in China.

A major controversy was sparked worldwide by a recent national water census claiming that the number of Chinese rivers with watersheds ≥100 km2 was less than half the previous estimate of 50 000 rivers, which also stimulates debates on the potential causes and consequences. Here, we estimated the number of rivers in terms of stream-segmentation characteristics described by Horton, Strahler and Shreve stream-order rules, as well as their mixed mode for named rivers recorded in the Encyclopedia of Rivers and Lakes in China. As a result, the number of 'vanishing rivers' has been found to be highly relevant to statistical specifications in addition to the erroneous inclusion of pseudo-rivers primarily generated in arid or frost-thaw areas. The modified Horton stream-order scheme reasonably depicts the configuration of complete natural streams from headwater to destination, while the Strahler largely projects the fragmentation of the named river networks associated with human aggregation to the hierarchical river systems.

Reducing Food Loss and Waste to Enhance Food Security and Environmental Sustainability.

While food shortage remains a big concern in many regions around the world, almost one-third of the total food production is discarded as food loss and waste (FLW). This is associated with about one-quarter of land, water, and fertilizer used for crop production, even though resources and environmental constraints are expected to limit food production around the world. FLW reduction represents a potential opportunity to enhance both food security and environmental sustainability and therefore has received considerable attention recently. By reviewing the recent progress and new developments in the literature, this paper highlights the importance of FLW prevention as a complementary solution to address the Grand Challenge of global food security and environmental sustainability. However, raising awareness only is not enough to realize the expected FLW reduction. We identify the knowledge gaps and opportunities for research by synthesizing the strategies of FLW reduction and the barriers, including (1) filling the data gaps, (2) quantifying the socioeconomic and environmental impacts of FLW reduction strategies, (3) understanding the scale effects, and (4) exploring the impacts of global transitions. It is urgent to take more aggressive yet scientifically based actions to reduce FLW, which require everyone's involvement along the food supply chain, including policy makers, food producers and suppliers, and food consumers.

The Interplay Between Bioenergy Grass Production and Water Resources in the United States of America.

We apply a land surface model to evaluate the interplay between potential bioenergy grass (Miscanthus, Cave-in-Rock, and Alamo) production, water quantity, and nitrogen leaching (NL) in the Central and Eastern U.S. Water use intensity tends to be lower where grass yields are modeled to be high, for example in the Midwest for Miscanthus and Cave-in-Rock and the upper southeastern U.S. for Alamo. However, most of these regions are already occupied by crops and forests and substitution of these biome types for ethanol production implies trade-offs. In general, growing Miscanthus consumes more water, Alamo consumes less water, and Cave-in-Rock consumes approximately the same amount of water as existing vegetation. Bioenergy grasses can maintain high productivity over time, even in water limited regions, because their roots can grow deeper and extract the water from the deep, moist soil layers. However, this may not hold where there are frequent and intense drought events, particularly in regions with shallow soil depths. One advantage of bioenergy grasses is that they mitigate nitrogen leaching relative to row crops and herbaceous plants when grown without applying N fertilizer; and bioenergy grasses, especially Miscanthus, generally require less N fertilizer application than row crops and herbaceous plants.

Importance of Natural and Anthropogenic Environmental Factors to Fish Communities of the Fox River in Illinois.

The dominant environmental determinants of aquatic communities have been a persistent topic for many years. Interactions between natural and anthropogenic characteristics within the aquatic environment influence fish communities in complex ways that make the effect of a single characteristic difficult to ascertain. Researchers are faced with the question of how to deal with a large number of variables and complex interrelationships. This study utilized multiple approaches to identify key environmental variables to fish communities of the Fox River Basin in Illinois: Pearson and Spearman correlations, an algorithm based on information theory called mutual information, and a measure of variable importance built into the machine learning algorithm Random Forest. The results are based on a dataset developed for this study, which uses a fish index of biological integrity (IBI) and its ten component metrics as response variables and a range of environmental variables describing geomorphology, stream flow statistics, climate, and both reach-scale and watershed-scale land use as independent variables. Agricultural land use and the magnitude and duration of low flow events were ranked by the algorithms as key factors for the study area. Reach-scale characteristics were dominant for native sunfish, and stream flow metrics were rated highly for native suckers. Regression tree analyses of environmental variables on fish IBI identified breakpoints in percent agricultural land in the watershed (~64%), duration of low flow pulses (~12 days), and 90-day minimum flow (~0.13 cms). The findings should be useful for building predictive models and design of more effective monitoring systems and restoration plans.

Managing Multiple Mandates: A System of Systems Model to Analyze Strategies for Producing Cellulosic Ethanol and Reducing Riverine Nitrate Loads in the Upper Mississippi River Basin.

Implementing public policies often involves navigating an array of choices that have economic and environmental consequences that are difficult to quantify due to the complexity of multiple system interactions. Implementing the mandate for cellulosic biofuel production in the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and reducing hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico by reducing riverine nitrate-N loads represent two such cases that overlap in the Mississippi River Basin. To quantify the consequences of these interactions, a system of systems (SoS) model was developed that incorporates interdependencies among the various subsystems, including biofuel refineries, transportation, agriculture, water resources and crop/ethanol markets. The model allows examination of the impact of imposing riverine nitrate-N load limits on the biofuel production system as a whole, including land use change and infrastructure needs. The synergies of crop choice (first versus second generation biofuel crops), infrastructure development, and environmental impacts (streamflow and nitrate-N load) were analyzed to determine the complementarities and trade-offs between environmental protection and biofuel development objectives. For example, the results show that meeting the cellulosic biofuel target in the RFS using Miscanthus x giganteus reduces system profits by 8% and reduces nitrate-N loads by 12% compared to the scenario without a mandate. However, greater water consumption by Miscanthus is likely to reduce streamflow with potentially adverse environmental consequences that need to be considered in future decision making.

Virtual groundwater transfers from overexploited aquifers in the United States.

The High Plains, Mississippi Embayment, and Central Valley aquifer systems within the United States are currently being overexploited for irrigation water supplies. The unsustainable use of groundwater resources in all three aquifer systems intensified from 2000 to 2008, making it imperative that we understand the consumptive processes and forces of demand that are driving their depletion. To this end, we quantify and track agricultural virtual groundwater transfers from these overexploited aquifer systems to their final destination. Specifically, we determine which US metropolitan areas, US states, and international export destinations are currently the largest consumers of these critical aquifers. We draw upon US government data on agricultural production, irrigation, and domestic food flows, as well as modeled estimates of agricultural virtual water contents to quantify domestic transfers. Additionally, we use US port-level trade data to trace international exports from these aquifers. In 2007, virtual groundwater transfers from the High Plains, Mississippi Embayment, and Central Valley aquifer systems totaled 17.93 km(3), 9.18 km(3), and 6.81 km(3), respectively, which is comparable to the capacity of Lake Mead (35.7 km(3)), the largest surface reservoir in the United States. The vast majority (91%) of virtual groundwater transfers remains within the United States. Importantly, the cereals produced by these overexploited aquifers are critical to US food security (contributing 18.5% to domestic cereal supply). Notably, Japan relies upon cereals produced by these overexploited aquifers for 9.2% of its domestic cereal supply. These results highlight the need to understand the teleconnections between distant food demands and local agricultural water use.

Parameter Estimation for Groundwater Models under Uncertain Irrigation Data.

The success of modeling groundwater is strongly influenced by the accuracy of the model parameters that are used to characterize the subsurface system. However, the presence of uncertainty and possibly bias in groundwater model source/sink terms may lead to biased estimates of model parameters and model predictions when the standard regression-based inverse modeling techniques are used. This study first quantifies the levels of bias in groundwater model parameters and predictions due to the presence of errors in irrigation data. Then, a new inverse modeling technique called input uncertainty weighted least-squares (IUWLS) is presented for unbiased estimation of the parameters when pumping and other source/sink data are uncertain. The approach uses the concept of generalized least-squares method with the weight of the objective function depending on the level of pumping uncertainty and iteratively adjusted during the parameter optimization process. We have conducted both analytical and numerical experiments, using irrigation pumping data from the Republican River Basin in Nebraska, to evaluate the performance of ordinary least-squares (OLS) and IUWLS calibration methods under different levels of uncertainty of irrigation data and calibration conditions. The result from the OLS method shows the presence of statistically significant (p < 0.05) bias in estimated parameters and model predictions that persist despite calibrating the models to different calibration data and sample sizes. However, by directly accounting for the irrigation pumping uncertainties during the calibration procedures, the proposed IUWLS is able to minimize the bias effectively without adding significant computational burden to the calibration processes.

Comparing administered and market-based water allocation systems through a consistent agent-based modeling framework.

Water allocation can be undertaken through administered systems (AS), market-based systems (MS), or a combination of the two. The debate on the performance of the two systems has lasted for decades but still calls for attention in both research and practice. This paper compares water users' behavior under AS and MS through a consistent agent-based modeling framework for water allocation analysis that incorporates variables particular to both MS (e.g., water trade and trading prices) and AS (water use violations and penalties/subsidies). Analogous to the economic theory of water markets under MS, the theory of rational violation justifies the exchange of entitled water under AS through the use of cross-subsidies. Under water stress conditions, a unique water allocation equilibrium can be achieved by following a simple bargaining rule that does not depend upon initial market prices under MS, or initial economic incentives under AS. The modeling analysis shows that the behavior of water users (agents) depends on transaction, or administrative, costs, as well as their autonomy. Reducing transaction costs under MS or administrative costs under AS will mitigate the effect that equity constraints (originating with primary water allocation) have on the system's total net economic benefits. Moreover, hydrologic uncertainty is shown to increase market prices under MS and penalties/subsidies under AS and, in most cases, also increases transaction, or administrative, costs.

Downgrading recent estimates of land available for biofuel production.

Recent estimates of additional land available for bioenergy production range from 320 to 1411 million ha. These estimates were generated from four scenarios regarding the types of land suitable for bioenergy production using coarse-resolution inputs of soil productivity, slope, climate, and land cover. In this paper, these maps of land availability were assessed using high-resolution satellite imagery. Samples from these maps were selected and crowdsourcing of Google Earth images was used to determine the type of land cover and the degree of human impact. Based on this sample, a set of rules was formulated to downward adjust the original estimates for each of the four scenarios that were previously used to generate the maps of land availability for bioenergy production. The adjusted land availability estimates range from 56 to 1035 million ha depending upon the scenario and the ruleset used when the sample is corrected for bias. Large forest areas not intended for biofuel production purposes were present in all scenarios. However, these numbers should not be considered as definitive estimates but should be used to highlight the uncertainty in attempting to quantify land availability for biofuel production when using coarse-resolution inputs with implications for further policy development.

Carbon consequences and agricultural implications of growing biofuel crops on marginal agricultural lands in China.

Using marginal agricultural lands to grow energy crops for biofuel feedstocks is a promising option to meet the biofuel needs in populous China without causing further food shortages or environmental problems. Here we quantify the effects of growing switchgrass and Miscanthus on Chinese marginal agricultural lands on biomass production and carbon emissions with a global-scale biogeochemical model. We find that the national net primary production (NPP) of these two biofuel crops are 622 and 1546 g C m(-2) yr(-1), respectively, whereas the NPP of food crops is about 600 g C m(-2) yr(-1) in China. The net carbon sink over the 47 Mha of marginal agricultural lands across China is 2.1 Tg C yr(-1) for switchgrass and 5.0 Tg C yr(-1) for Miscanthus. Soil organic carbon is estimated to be 10 kg C m(-2) in both biofuel ecosystems, which is equal to the soil carbon levels of grasslands in China. In order to reach the goal of 12.5 billion liters of bioethanol in 2020 using crop biomass as biofuel feedstocks, 7.9-8.0 Mha corn grain, 4.3-6.1 Mha switchgrass, or 1.4-2.0 Mha Miscanthus will be needed. Miscanthus has tremendous potential to meet future biofuel needs, and to benefit CO(2) mitigation in China.

Land availability for biofuel production.

Marginal agricultural land is estimated for biofuel production in Africa, China, Europe, India, South America, and the continental United States, which have major agricultural production capacities. These countries/regions can have 320-702 million hectares of land available if only abandoned and degraded cropland and mixed crop and vegetation land, which are usually of low quality, are accounted. If grassland, savanna, and shrubland with marginal productivity are considered for planting low-input high-diversity (LIHD) mixtures of native perennials as energy crops, the total land availability can increase from 1107-1411 million hectares, depending on if the pasture land is discounted. Planting the second generation of biofuel feedstocks on abandoned and degraded cropland and LIHD perennials on grassland with marginal productivity may fulfill 26-55% of the current world liquid fuel consumption, without affecting the use of land with regular productivity for conventional crops and without affecting the current pasture land. Under the various land use scenarios, Africa may have more than one-third, and Africa and Brazil, together, may have more than half of the total land available for biofuel production. These estimations are based on physical conditions such as soil productivity, land slope, and climate.

Modeling Miscanthus in the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) to simulate its water quality effects as a bioenergy crop.

There is increasing interest in perennial grasses as a renewable source of bioenergy and feedstock for second-generation cellulosic biofuels. The primary objective of this study is to estimate the potential effects on riverine nitrate load of cultivating Miscanthus x giganteus in place of conventional crops. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to model miscanthus growth and streamwater quality in the Salt Creek watershed in Illinois. SWAT has a built-in crop growth component, but, as miscanthus is relatively new as a potentially commercial crop, data on the SWAT crop growth parameters for the crop are lacking. This leads to the second objective of this study, which is to estimate those parameters to facilitate the modeling of miscanthus in SWAT. Results show a decrease in nitrate load that depends on the percent land use change to miscanthus and the amount of nitrogen fertilizer applied to the miscanthus. Specifically, assuming a nitrogen fertilization rate for miscanthus of 90 kg-N/ha, a 10%, 25%, and 50% land use change to miscanthus will lead to decreases in nitrate load of about 6.4%, 16.5%, and 29.6% at the watershed outlet, respectively. Likewise, nitrate load may be reduced by lowering the fertilizer application rate, but not proportionately. When fertilization drops from 90 to 30 kg-N/ha the difference in nitrate load decrease is less than 1% when 10% of the watershed is miscanthus and less than 6% when 50% of the watershed is miscanthus. It is also found that the nitrate load decrease from converting less than half the watershed to miscanthus from corn and soybean in 1:1 rotation surpasses that from converting the whole watershed to just soybean.

Water stress, water transfer and social equity in Northern China--implications for policy reforms.

Water stress in Northern China is characterized with major, inefficient irrigation water use and rapidly growing non-agricultural water demands, as well as limited water quantity and declining water quality. Water use in the region is undergoing transfer from agricultural to municipal and industrial sectors. Currently, part of the economic loss and environmental damage due to water stress can be considered as a consequence of water transfer failures, including the current transfers, which hurt farmers' livelihood and income, and the needed transfers, which industry and cities have been waiting for but have not received. This paper starts with a discussion of the causes of water stress in Northern China, which is fundamental to understand the necessity and complexity of agricultural water transfers. Following that, it reviews water transfers in Northern China as a cause for concern over the social stability, economy and environment of the region. Based on an integrated analysis of economic, environmental, fiscal and social implications, this paper begins by identifying critical barriers to smooth water redistribution; and ends with implications for policy reforms, ensuring that farmers can and will save water. It is concluded that the decisions of water reallocation under water stress should be shared by communities at all levels, from the local to the national, to ensure equal access of water, especially the availability of the basic water need for all groups.