An infectious aetiology for childhood brain tumours? Evidence from space-time clustering and seasonality analyses.

To investigate whether infections or other environmental exposures may be involved in the aetiology of childhood central nervous system tumours, we have analysed for space-time clustering and seasonality using population-based data from the North West of England for the period 1954 to 1998. Knox tests for space-time interactions between cases were applied with fixed thresholds of close in space, <5 km, and close in time, <1 year apart. Addresses at birth and diagnosis were used. Tests were repeated replacing geographical distance with distance to the Nth nearest neighbour. N was chosen such that the mean distance was 5 km. Data were also examined by a second order procedure based on K-functions. Tests for heterogeneity and Edwards' test for sinusoidal variation were applied to examine changes of incidence with month of birth or diagnosis. There was strong evidence of space-time clustering, particularly involving cases of astrocytoma and ependymoma. Analyses of seasonal variation showed excesses of cases born in the late Autumn or Winter. Results are consistent with a role for infections in a proportion of cases from these diagnostic groups. Further studies are needed to identify putative infectious agents.

Temporal increases in the incidence of childhood solid tumors seen in Northwest England (1954-1998) are likely to be real.

BACKGROUND: There has been speculation that increasing trends in incidence of childhood central nervous system tumors and infant neuroblastoma in the United States have been due to diagnostic improvements or reporting changes. To investigate whether or not such trends could be explained in this way in the U.K., the authors used population-based data from Northwest England to analyze incidence trends in childhood solid tumors. METHODS: Cases were diagnosed during 1954-1998 and were grouped according to a morphology-based classification scheme. More than 95% of diagnoses were based on special histopathologic review. Tissue sections were retained, and diagnoses were rereviewed to ensure consistency in classification throughout the time period. Age-, gender- and period-specific incidence rates were calculated. Analyses were performed with chi-square tests and Poisson regression. RESULTS: There was an overall increase in the incidence of all childhood solid tumors of 0.9% each year. A temporal increase was found in childhood brain tumors characterized by, in particular, annual increases of 1% in pilocytic astrocytoma, 1% in primitive neuroectodermal tumors, and 2.3% in miscellaneous gliomas. The incidence of germ cell tumors increased at a rate of 2.6% each year. CONCLUSIONS: These increases could not be attributed to changes in diagnostic practice, and it is unlikely that the increases were due to changes in reporting practice. Further, the restriction of the increases to certain groups, with stable rates in others, argued against the changes being artifactual. The authors concluded that the increases in incidence were likely to be real.

Examination of temporal trends in the incidence of childhood leukaemias and lymphomas provides aetiological clues.

The age-sex distributions and temporal trends in incidence of leukaemia and lymphoma from the Manchester Children's Tumour Registry (MCTR), 1954-1998, are reported. This 45-year study includes 1795 children, all of whom had a histologically and/or cytologically verified leukaemia or lymphoma. At the time of their diagnoses all the children were under 15 years of age and were resident in a geographically defined area of northwest England covered by the MCTR. Log-linear modelling identified significant linear increases in acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) (average annual increase 0.7%; P= 0.005) and in Hodgkin's disease (HD) (1.2%, P=0.04), but not in acute myeloid leukaemia (AML), nor in non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL). The increase in ALL was most pronounced amongst males, aged 1-4 years, and is likely to be due to precursor B-cell leukaemias. The increases in ALL and HD are discussed in relation to current hypotheses suggesting a role for infection. Additionally, a non-linear cohort effect was identified for NHL (P= 0.008), which may indicate the involvement of environmental factors other than infection.