Development and Validation of a Predictive Model for Functional Outcome After Stroke Rehabilitation: The Maugeri Model.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Prediction of outcome after stroke rehabilitation may help clinicians in decision-making and planning rehabilitation care. We developed and validated a predictive tool to estimate the probability of achieving improvement in physical functioning (model 1) and a level of independence requiring no more than supervision (model 2) after stroke rehabilitation. METHODS: The models were derived from 717 patients admitted for stroke rehabilitation. We used multivariable logistic regression analysis to build each model. Then, each model was prospectively validated in 875 patients. RESULTS: Model 1 included age, time from stroke occurrence to rehabilitation admission, admission motor and cognitive Functional Independence Measure scores, and neglect. Model 2 included age, male gender, time since stroke onset, and admission motor and cognitive Functional Independence Measure score. Both models demonstrated excellent discrimination. In the derivation cohort, the area under the curve was 0.883 (95% confidence intervals, 0.858-0.910) for model 1 and 0.913 (95% confidence intervals, 0.884-0.942) for model 2. The Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2 was 4.12 (P=0.249) and 1.20 (P=0.754), respectively. In the validation cohort, the area under the curve was 0.866 (95% confidence intervals, 0.840-0.892) for model 1 and 0.850 (95% confidence intervals, 0.815-0.885) for model 2. The Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2 was 8.86 (P=0.115) and 34.50 (P=0.001), respectively. Both improvement in physical functioning (hazard ratios, 0.43; 0.25-0.71; P=0.001) and a level of independence requiring no more than supervision (hazard ratios, 0.32; 0.14-0.68; P=0.004) were independently associated with improved 4-year survival. A calculator is freely available for download at https://goo.gl/fEAp81. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides researchers and clinicians with an easy-to-use, accurate, and validated predictive tool for potential application in rehabilitation research and stroke management.

Functional Gain After Inpatient Stroke Rehabilitation: Correlates and Impact on Long-Term Survival.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Prediction of functional outcome after stroke rehabilitation (SR) is a growing field of interest. The association between SR and survival still remains elusive. We sought to investigate the factors associated with functional outcome after SR and whether the magnitude of functional improvement achieved with rehabilitation is associated with long-term mortality risk. METHODS: The study population consisted of 722 patients admitted for SR within 90 days of stroke onset, with an admission functional independence measure (FIM) score of <80 points. We used univariable and multivariable linear regression analyses to assess the association between baseline variables and FIM gain and univariable and multivariable Cox analyses to assess the association of FIM gain with long-term mortality. RESULTS: Age (P<0.001), marital status (P=0.003), time from stroke onset to rehabilitation admission (P<0.001), National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score at rehabilitation admission (P<0.001), and aphasia (P=0.021) were independently associated with FIM gain. The R2 of the model was 0.275. During a median follow-up of 6.17 years, 36.9% of the patients died. At multivariable Cox analysis, age (P<0.0001), coronary heart disease (P=0.018), atrial fibrillation (P=0.042), total cholesterol (P=0.015), and total FIM gain (P<0.0001) were independently associated with mortality. The adjusted hazard ratio for death significantly decreased across tertiles of increasing FIM gain. CONCLUSIONS: Several factors are independently associated with functional gain after SR. Our findings strongly suggest that the magnitude of functional improvement is a powerful predictor of long-term mortality in patients admitted for SR.