Wind-Driven Sediment Resuspension in the World's Fourth Largest Lake Contributes Substantial Phosphorus Load to the 11th Largest Lake.

Capturing precipitation-based episodes is a longstanding issue for estimating tributary loads; however, wind-driven resuspension in Lake Huron creates similar uncertainties in its estimated load to Lake Erie. Recent suggestions that the phosphorus load from Lake Huron is underestimated because sampling frequencies miss contributions from resuspension events are speculative because they did not include direct load measurements, address all resuspension regions, or assess the potential bioavailability of the load. We address these shortcomings by evaluating Lake Huron's nearshore regions, characterizing the biological availability of the load, and providing direct comparisons of load estimates with and without the resuspended load. We show that total phosphorus concentrations in Lake Huron and the St. Clair River are higher during resuspension events and that bioavailability of that material is comparable to that reported elsewhere. New load estimates, based on continuous turbidity measurements converted to phosphorus through P-turbidity relationships, were almost 90% higher than traditional load estimates, providing empirical evidence for the significantly underestimated previous load. This confirmation is important because if the Lake Huron load is not decreased, reductions from other sources would be needed to meet the overall reduction targets set by the binational Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of conservation practices under implementation site uncertainty.

Agricultural nonpoint source pollution is the leading source of water quality degradation in United States, which has led to the development of programs that aim to mitigate this pollution. One common approach to mitigating nonpoint source pollution is the use of best management practices (BMPs). However, it can be challenging to evaluate the effectiveness of implemented BMPs due to polices that limit data sharing. In this study, the uncertainty introduced by data sharing limitations is quantified through the use of a watershed model. Results indicated that BMP implementation improved the overall water quality in the region (up to ∼15% pollution reduction) and that increasing the area of BMP implementation resulted in higher pollution reduction. However, the model outputs also indicated that uncertainty caused by data sharing limitations resulted in variabilities ranging from -160% to 140%. This shows the importance of data sharing among agencies to better guide current and future conservation programs.

Evaluating the significance of wetland restoration scenarios on phosphorus removal.

Freshwater resources are vital for human and natural systems. However, anthropogenic activities, such as agricultural practices, have led to the degradation of the quality of these limited resources through pollutant loading. Agricultural Best Management Practices (BMPs), such as wetlands, are recommended as a valuable solution for pollutant removal. However, evaluation of their long-term impacts is difficult and requires modeling since performing in-situ monitoring is expensive and not feasible at the watershed scale. In this study, the impact of natural wetland implementation on total phosphorus reduction was evaluated both at the subwatershed and watershed levels. The study area is the Saginaw River Watershed, which is largest watershed in Michigan. The phosphorus reduction performances of four different wetland sizes (2, 4, 6, and 8 ha) were evaluated within this study area by implementing one wetland at a time in areas identified to have the highest potential for wetland restoration. The subwatershed level phosphorus loads were obtained from a calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. These loads were then incorporated into a wetland model (System for Urban Stormwater Treatment and Analysis IntegratioN-SUSTAIN) to evaluate phosphorus reduction at the subwatershed level and then the SWAT model was again used to route phosphorus transport to the watershed outlet. Statistical analyses were performed to evaluate the spatial impact of wetland size and placement on phosphorus reduction. Overall, the performance of 2 ha wetlands in total phosphorus reduction was significantly lower than the larger sizes at both the subwatershed and watershed levels. Regarding wetland implementation sites, wetlands located in headwaters and downstream had significantly higher phosphorus reduction than the ones located in the middle of the watershed. More specifically, wetlands implemented at distances ranging from 200 to 250 km and 50-100 km from the outlet had the highest impact on phosphorus reduction at the subwatershed and watershed levels, respectively. A multi criteria decision making (MCDM) method named VIKOR was successfully executed to identify the most suitable wetland size and location for each subwatershed considering the phosphorus reduction and economic cost associated with wetland implementation. The methods introduced in this study can be easily applied to other watersheds for selection and placement of wetlands while considering environmental benefits and economic costs.