Disenrollment from Medicare HMOs.

BACKGROUND: Since the program's inception, there has been great interest in determining whether beneficiaries who enter and subsequently leave Medicare health maintenance organizations (HMOs) are more or less costly than those remaining in fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare. OBJECTIVES: To examine whether relatively high-cost beneficiaries disenroll from Medicare HMOs (disenrollment bias) and whether disenrollment bias varies by Medicare HMO market characteristics. In addition, we compare rates of surgical procedures and hospitalizations for ambulatory care-sensitive conditions for disenrollees and continuing FFS beneficiaries. DESIGN: Cross-sectional analysis of 1994 Medicare data. PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS: Medicare beneficiaries were first sampled from the 124 counties with at least 1000 Medicare HMO enrollees. From this pool, HMO disenrollees and a sample of continuing FFS beneficiaries were drawn. The FFS beneficiaries were assigned dates of "pseudodisenrollment." Expenditures and inpatient service use were compared for 6 months after disenrollment or pseudodisenrollment. RESULTS: The HMO disenrollees were no more likely than the continuing FFS beneficiaries to have positive total expenditures (Part A plus Part B) or Part B expenditures in the first 6 months after disenrollment. However, disenrollees were more likely to have Part A expenditures. Among beneficiaries with spending, disenrollees had higher total and Part B expenditures than continuing FFS beneficiaries. Moreover, the disparity in total and Part B spending between disenrollees and continuing FFS beneficiaries increased with HMO market penetration. Although Part A spending was higher for disenrollees with spending, it was not sensitive to changes in market share. The HMO disenrollees received more surgical procedures and were hospitalized for more of the ambulatory care-sensitive conditions than the FFS beneficiaries. CONCLUSIONS: On several measures, Medicare HMOs experienced favorable disenrollment relative to continuing FFS beneficiaries as recently as 1994, which increased as HMO market share increased.

Comparing mortality and time until death for medicare HMO and FFS beneficiaries.

OBJECTIVE: To compare adjusted mortality rates of TEFRA-risk HMO enrollees and disenrollees with rates of beneficiaries enrolled in the Medicare fee-for-service sector (FFS), and to compare the time until death for decedents in these three groups. DATA SOURCE: Data are from the 124 counties with the largest TEFRA-risk HMO enrollment using 1993-1994 Medicare Denominator files for beneficiaries enrolled in the FFS and TEFRA-risk HMO sectors. STUDY DESIGN: A retrospective study that tracks the mortality rates and time until death of a random sample of 1,240,120 Medicare beneficiaries in the FFS sector and 1,526,502 enrollees in HMOs between April 1, 1993 and April 1, 1994. A total of 58,201 beneficiaries switched from an HMO to the FFS sector and were analyzed separately. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: HMO enrollees have lower relative odds of mortality than a comparable group of FFS beneficiaries. Conversely, HMO disenrollees have higher relative odds of mortality than comparable FFS beneficiaries. Among decedents in the three groups, HMO enrollees lived longer than FFS beneficiaries, who in turn lived longer than HMO disenrollees. CONCLUSIONS: Medicare TEFRA-risk HMO enrollees appear to be, on average, healthier than beneficiaries enrolled in the FFS sector, who appear to be in turn healthier than HMO disenrollees. These health status differences persist, even after controlling for beneficiary demographics and county-level variables that might confound the relationship between mortality and the insurance sector.

Uncovering the missing Medicaid cases and assessing their bias for estimates of the uninsured.

General population surveys of health insurance coverage are thought to undercount Medicaid enrollment, which may bias estimates of the uninsured. This article describes the results of an experiment undertaken in conjunction with a general population survey in Minnesota. Responses to health insurance questions by a known sample of public program enrollees are analyzed to determine possible reasons for the undercount and the amount of bias introduced in estimates of uninsured people. While public program enrollees often misreport the type of coverage they have, the impact on estimates of those without insurance is negligible. Restrictions to generalizing the finding beyond this study are discussed.

Rural beneficiaries with chronic conditions: does prevalence pose a risk to Medicare managed care?

One of several possible barriers to the growth of Medicare managed care in rural areas is the fear of adverse selection (i.e., the perception that rural beneficiaries are less healthy and have pent-up demand for services). Using 1993 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey data, we conclude that specific chronic conditions common among the elderly are not more prevalent among rural than urban beneficiaries. Medicare reimbursements for beneficiaries with chronic conditions are generally lower in rural counties. However, the difference between actual Medicare reimbursements and projected capitated payments to managed care organizations is similar in magnitude for rural and urban beneficiaries with these conditions.

Selection experiences in Medicare HMOs: pre-enrollment expenditures.

Using 1993 and 1994 data, the authors examine whether beneficiaries who enroll in a Medicare health maintenance organization (HMO), including those enrolling for only a short period of time, have lower expenditures than continuous fee-for-service (FFS) beneficiaries the year prior to enrollment. We also test whether biased selection varies by the level of HMO market penetration and the rate of market-share growth. We find favorable selection associated with enrollment into Medicare HMOs, which declines as market share increases but does not disappear. Among short-term enrollees, we find unfavorable selection, however, selection bias was not sensitive to market characteristics.

Who is still uninsured in Minnesota? Lessons from state reform efforts.

OBJECTIVE: To describe Minnesota's health care system reform efforts and their implications for other state and national reform initiatives, document the rate of uninsurance in 1990 and 1995 with special attention to childrens' access to health insurance, and examine the effectiveness of MinnesotaCare, a voluntary state-subsidized health care plan, in serving its target population. DESIGN: Three cross-sectional telephone surveys: 2-stage random samples of Minnesotans of all ages in 1990 and 1995 and a stratified random sample of MinnesotaCare enrollees in 1994. PARTICIPANTS: For the 2 statewide surveys, 10310 respondents participated in 1990 and 11519 in 1995; more detailed information was collected on approximately 1600 respondents in each survey. Eight hundred MinnesotaCare enrollees participated in the third survey conducted in 1994. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Changes in rates of uninsurance. RESULTS: While the rate of uninsurance increased at the national level, the point-in-time Minnesota rate remained stable and low at 6% between 1990 and 1995. The proportion of children uninsured for 12 months or more decreased from 5.2% in 1990 to 3.1% in 1995, while the proportion of uninsured single adults remained stable at approximately 11%. There was no evidence that MinnesotaCare enrollees are gaming the program, or that the program has resulted in significant erosion from the private market. CONCLUSIONS: MinnesotaCare has enabled the state to maintain a low rate of uninsurance and has reduced this rate among its primary target: children. The program has been less effective in enrolling single adults, although it may be too early to witness the effects of recent expansions targeting this group. Minnesota's experience suggests that other state and national reform efforts aimed at reducing uninsurance, particularly among children, are likely to be successful.

The effects of work intensity on adolescent mental health, achievement, and behavioral adjustment: new evidence from a prospective study.

This article examines the effects of work intensity on adolescent mental health, academic achievement, and behavioral adjustment. Questionnaire data were collected yearly from an initial panel of 1,000 randomly selected ninth graders (14-15 years old). Consistent with other studies, students who worked at higher intensity engaged in more alcohol use. The methodological strengths of this research (a representative panel studied prospectively over a 4-year period with minimal attrition and an analysis incorporating key control and lagged variables) provide strong evidence that adolescent work fosters alcohol use. The contention that work of high intensity has deleterious effects on mental health, academic achievement, and 2 other indicators of behavioral adjustment did not withstand our stringent tests. However, high school seniors who worked at moderate intensity (1-20 hours per week) had higher grades than both nonworkers and students who worked more hours per week.

Helpfulness and the development of competence in adolescence.

Using data from a representative panel of 1,000 Minnesota youth, this paper explores "helpfulness" in 2 spheres of adolescents' lives: the home and paid work settings. We examine the social structural conditions under which helpful behaviors are elicited, the interrelations of helpfulness and competence across 2 years of middle adolescence, and whether social circumstances moderate the effects of helpfulness on competence. Both boys' and girls' helpfulness in the home is responsive to family need. Furthermore, helpfulness at work and girls' competence are reciprocally related. We find evidence that the effects of helpfulness depend on the helper's motivations and the act's meaning, as shaped by the social context. Girls' competence is diminished by helpfulness in the home under conditions of poor father-daughter relationships and coercive maternal control.