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2.
PLoS One ; 15(10): e0240775, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33085693

ABSTRACT

Testing is viewed as a critical aspect of any strategy to tackle epidemics. Much of the dialogue around testing has concentrated on how countries can scale up capacity, but the uncertainty in testing has not received nearly as much attention beyond asking if a test is accurate enough to be used. Even for highly accurate tests, false positives and false negatives will accumulate as mass testing strategies are employed under pressure, and these misdiagnoses could have major implications on the ability of governments to suppress the virus. The present analysis uses a modified SIR model to understand the implication and magnitude of misdiagnosis in the context of ending lockdown measures. The results indicate that increased testing capacity alone will not provide a solution to lockdown measures. The progression of the epidemic and peak infections is shown to depend heavily on test characteristics, test targeting, and prevalence of the infection. Antibody based immunity passports are rejected as a solution to ending lockdown, as they can put the population at risk if poorly targeted. Similarly, mass screening for active viral infection may only be beneficial if it can be sufficiently well targeted, otherwise reliance on this approach for protection of the population can again put them at risk. A well targeted active viral test combined with a slow release rate is a viable strategy for continuous suppression of the virus.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus/immunology , Clinical Laboratory Techniques , Coronavirus Infections/diagnosis , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Mass Screening/methods , Pneumonia, Viral/diagnosis , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Uncertainty , Antibodies, Viral/blood , Betacoronavirus/genetics , COVID-19 , COVID-19 Testing , Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control , Coronavirus Infections/virology , Data Accuracy , Diagnostic Errors , Humans , Pandemics/prevention & control , Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control , Pneumonia, Viral/virology , Prevalence , Quarantine/methods , Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction , SARS-CoV-2 , Sensitivity and Specificity , Serologic Tests , United Kingdom/epidemiology
4.
Sci Rep ; 9(1): 6333, 2019 04 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31004119

ABSTRACT

Redox cycling is an understated mechanism of toxicity associated with a plethora of xenobiotics, responsible for preventing the effective treatment of serious conditions such as malaria and cardiomyopathy. Quinone compounds are notorious redox cyclers, present in drugs such as doxorubicin, which is used to treat a host of human cancers. However, the therapeutic index of doxorubicin is undermined by dose-dependent cardiotoxicity, which may be a function of futile redox cycling. In this study, a doxorubicin-specific in silico quinone redox metabolism model is described. Doxorubicin-GSH adduct formation kinetics are thermodynamically estimated from its reduction potential, while the remainder of the model is parameterised using oxygen consumption rate data, indicative of hydroquinone auto-oxidation. The model is then combined with a comprehensive glutathione metabolism model, facilitating the simulation of quinone redox cycling, and adduct-induced GSH depletion. Simulations suggest that glutathione pools are most sensitive to exposure duration at pharmacologically and supra-pharmacologically relevant doxorubicin concentrations. The model provides an alternative method of investigating and quantifying redox cycling induced oxidative stress, circumventing the experimental difficulties of measuring and tracking radical species. This in silico framework provides a platform from which GSH depletion can be explored as a function of a compound's physicochemical properties.


Subject(s)
Benzoquinones/metabolism , Glutathione/metabolism , Models, Biological , Neoplasms/metabolism , Animals , Humans , Neoplasms/drug therapy , Oxidation-Reduction
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