A subregional analysis of family change: The spatial diffusion of one-parent families across Italian municipalities, 1991-2011.

This paper documents the expansion of new family patterns in Italy by scrutinising the spatial diffusion of one-parent families across Italian municipalities for the period 1991-2011. We apply a hierarchical Bayesian model to the data of the last three Italian Population Censuses, acknowledging that variation cannot be broken down into temporal and spatial effects because space-time interaction is at the very heart of family changes. Our results illustrate substantial subregional and sub-provincial heterogeneities in the spatial organisation of family systems, patterns that might have gone undetected had larger territorial units of analysis been considered. In addition, we show that especially socio-economic factors were associated to the diffusion of new family forms. This paper challenges international scholarship that caricatures Italy as a monolithic, homogeneous family-oriented country.

A comparison of survey techniques on sensitive sexual behavior in Italy.

This article compares two national surveys carried out through the most commonly used procedures in Italy: CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviews) and SAQ-FI (self-answered questionnaires following interviews). Both surveys ask two identical questions concerning sensitive sexual behavior: early age at first intercourse and same-sex attraction. The SAQ-FI survey had both unit non-response and item non-response rates much lower than the CATI survey. Moreover, in the CATI survey, the groups with highest item non-response rates were also the groups with the lowest proportions of early intercourse and homosexual attraction. In addition, a differential analysis of the respondents produced diverse results for the two surveys. This is especially true of results by gender for same-sex attraction: Such behavior is more common among men (3.1%) than women (2.9%), according to the CATI survey, whereas the opposite is true of the SAQ-FI survey (6.1% of men vs. 7.7% women). In Italy at the beginning of the 21st century, CATI surveys reveal a lower level of early intercourse and same-sex attraction than SAQ-FI surveys. This article argues that the CATI survey underestimates the true level of these sensitive sexual behaviors in the Italian population.

Where, in which way and to what extent can Italian fertility grow in the next 15 years?

OBJECTIVE: The study aims at analysing the recent trends in fertility in Italy and at discussing its possible future trends. METHODS: We analyse the evolution of demographic indicators, such as the total fertility rate and the maternal age in Italy, in the last 30 years and we look for the most relevant determinants of birth postponement. We also discuss the most recent fertility forecasts for Italy and their implications. RESULTS: In Italy, the total fertility rate has declined sharply in the last 30 years, reaching a level among the lowest in the world. However, in the last decade a reversal in this trend has been recorded. We here show that, net of the effect of immigration, this reversal is mainly due to a recovery of postponed births after age 30. Nevertheless, this recovery is not sufficient to raise the total fertility rates up to the replacement level. The reasons for this insufficient recovery are related both to the marked delay in transition to adulthood and to the difficult reconciliation of work and maternity for Italian women, both hampering the fertility rates. CONCLUSIONS: The fertility decline in Italy has finally stopped in the last years even if the maternal age is continuously increasing. However, without ad hoc family policies the fertility recovery will be weak and limited to those areas of the country with a better welfare system and economically more developed.

Changing family formation in Nepal: marriage, cohabitation and first sexual intercourse.

CONTEXT: In Nepal, marriage occurs at a relatively young age and arranged weddings are widespread. However, recent changes in the family formation process and the timing of first sexual intercourse suggest that a transformation may be under way. METHODS: Data on marriage, cohabitation and first sexual intercourse from the 2001 Nepalese Demographic and Health Survey were used to describe the family formation process. The sequence of these events and the intervals between them were explored for currently married men and women. Hazard models were used to identify factors associated with behavioral changes over time. RESULTS: The average age at marriage among women married before age 20 increased from 13.7 years for those born in 1952-1956 to 15.6 years for those born in 1977-1981, while remaining relatively stable for men married before age 25 (17.3 years for the 1942-1946 birth cohort to 17.7 for the 1972-1976 birth cohort). After individual and couple characteristics were controlled for, younger age at interview was associated with greater odds of simultaneous marriage and cohabitation for both genders (odds ratios, 1.3-1.7). Younger age at interview was also associated with premarital sex among men--those aged 39 or younger had significantly higher risks than older men of having had premarital sex, with odds ratios rising from 1.6 among those aged 35-39 to 1.8 among those aged 15-24. CONCLUSIONS: It is important not only to promote education as a means of delaying marriage and childbearing, but also to implement programs and services that prevent reproductive health problems for young married couples.