Dummy regression to predict dry fiber in Agave lechuguilla Torr. in two large-scale bioclimatic regions in Mexico.

Agave lechuguilla Torr., of the family Agavaceae, is distributed from southwestern United States to southern Mexico and is one of the most representative species of arid and semiarid regions. Its fiber is extracted for multiple purposes. The objective of this study was to generate a robust model to predict dry fiber yield (Dfw) rapidly, simply, and inexpensively. We used a power model in its linear form and bioclimatic areas as dummy variables. Training, generation (80%) and validation (20%) of the model was performed using machine learning with the package 'caret' of R. Using canonical correlation analysis (CCA), we evaluated the relationship of Dwf to bioclimatic variables. The principal components analysis (PCA) generated two bioclimatic zones, each with different A. lechuguilla productivities. We evaluated 499 individuals in four states of Mexico. The crown diameter (Cd) of this species adequately predicts its fiber dry weight (R2 = 0.6327; p < 0.05). The intercept (ß0), slope [lnCd (ß1)], zone [(ß2)] and interaction [lnCd:Zona (ß3)] of the dummy model was statistically significant (p < 0.05), giving origin to an equation for each bioclimatic zone. The CCA indicates a positive correlation between minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio 6) and Dwf (r = 0.84 and p < 0.05). In conclusion, because of the decrease in Bio 6 of more than 0.5°C by 2050, the species could be vulnerable to climate change, and A. lechuguilla fiber production could be affected gradually in the coming years.

How to Extract Climate Variability from Tree-Rings.

Tree rings have been used to reconstruct climatological variables in many locations around the world. Moreover, tree-rings can provide valuable insights into climatic variability of the last few centuries and, in some areas, several millennia. Despite the important development, that dendrochronology has had in recent decades to study the dendroclimatic potential of a large number of species present in different ecosystems, much remains to be done and explored. In addition to this, in the last few years more people (students, teachers and researchers) around the world are interested in implementing this science to extend the timeline of climate information backwards and understand how climate has changed on scales of decades, centuries or millennia. Therefore, the objective of this work is to describe the general aspects and basic steps needed to conduct a tree-ring climate reconstruction, from site selection and field sampling to laboratory methods and data analysis. In this method's video and manuscript, the general basis in tree-ring climatic reconstructions is explained so newcomers and students can use it as an available guide into this field of research.

Using Tree-Rings to Reconstruct Fire History Information from Forested Areas.

Annual tree-ring patterns are a source of ecological and environmental information including the history of fires in forested areas. Tree-ring based fire histories include three fundamental phases: field collection, laboratory methods (preparation and dating), and data analysis. Here we provide step-by-step instructions and issues to consider, including the process for selecting the study area, sampling sites, plus how and which fire-scarred trees to sample. In addition, we describe fire-scar sample preparation and dating which are done in the laboratory. Finally, we describe basic analysis and relevant results, including examples from studies that have reconstructed fire history patterns. These studies allow us to understand the historical fire frequency, changes in those frequencies related to anthropogenic factors, and analyzes of how climate influences fire occurrence over time. The description of these methods and techniques should provide a greater understanding of fire history studies that will benefit researchers, educators, technicians, and students interested in this field. These detailed methods will allow new researchers to this field, a resource to start their own work and achieve greater success. This resource will provide a greater integration of tree-ring aspects within other studies and lead to a better understanding of natural processes with forested ecosystems.