Large uncertainties in trends of energy demand for heating and cooling under climate change.

The energy demand for heating and cooling buildings is changing with global warming. Using proxies of climate-driven energy demand based on the heating and cooling Degree-Days methodology applied to thirty global climate model simulations, we show that, over all continental areas, the climate-driven energy demand trends for heating and cooling were weak, changing by less than 10% from 1950 to 1990, but become stronger from 1990 to 2030, changing by more than 10%. With the multi-model mean, the increasing trends in cooling energy demand are more pronounced than the decreasing trends in heating. The changes in cooling, however, are highly variable depending on individual simulations, ranging from a few to several hundred percent in most of the densely populated mid-latitude areas. This work presents an example of the challenges that accompany future energy demand quantification as a result of the uncertainty in the projected climate.

Insights into the Formation and Evolution of Individual Compounds in the Particulate Phase during Aromatic Photo-Oxidation.

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) is well-known to have adverse effects on air quality and human health. However, the dynamic mechanisms occurring during SOA formation and evolution are poorly understood. The time-resolved SOA composition formed during the photo-oxidation of three aromatic compounds, methyl chavicol, toluene and 4-methyl catechol, were investigated at the European Photoreactor. SOA was collected using a particle into liquid sampler and analyzed offline using state-of-the-art mass spectrometry to produce temporal profiles of individual photo-oxidation products. In the photo-oxidation of methyl chavicol, 70 individual compounds were characterized and three distinctive temporal profile shapes were observed. The calculated mass fraction (Ci,aer/COA) of the individual SOA compounds showed either a linear trend (increasing/decreasing) or exponential decay with time. Substituted nitrophenols showed an exponential decay, with the nitro-group on the aromatic ring found to control the formation and loss of these species in the aerosol phase. Nitrophenols from both methyl chavicol and toluene photo-oxidation experiments showed a strong relationship with the NO2/NO (ppbv/ppbv) ratio and were observed during initial SOA growth. The location of the nitrophenol aromatic substitutions was found to be critically important, with the nitrophenol in the photo-oxidation of 4-methyl catechol not partitioning into the aerosol phase until irradiation had stopped; highlighting the importance of studying SOA formation and evolution at a molecular level.

Radical product yields from the ozonolysis of short chain alkenes under atmospheric boundary layer conditions.

The gas-phase reaction of ozone with unsaturated volatile organic compounds (VOCs), alkenes, is an important source of the critical atmospheric oxidant OH, especially at night when other photolytic radical initiation routes cannot occur. Alkene ozonolysis is also known to directly form HO2 radicals, which may be readily converted to OH through reaction with NO, but whose formation is poorly understood. We report a study of the radical (OH, HO2, and RO2) production from a series of small alkenes (propene, 1-butene, cis-2-butene, trans-2-butene, 2-methylpropene, 2,3-dimethyl-2-butene (tetramethyl ethene, TME), and isoprene). Experiments were performed in the European Photoreactor (EUPHORE) atmospheric simulation chamber, with OH and HO2 levels directly measured by laser-induced fluorescence (LIF) and HO2 + ΣRO2 levels measured by peroxy-radical chemical amplification (PERCA). OH yields were found to be in good agreement with the majority of previous studies performed under comparable conditions (atmospheric pressure, long time scales) using tracer and scavenger approaches. HO2 yields ranged from 4% (trans-2-butene) to 34% (2-methylpropene), lower than previous experimental determinations. Increasing humidity further reduced the HO2 yields obtained, by typically 50% for an RH increase from 0.5 to 30%, suggesting that HOx production from alkene ozonolysis may be lower than current models suggest under (humid) ambient atmospheric boundary layer conditions. The mechanistic origin of the OH and HO2 production observed is discussed in the context of previous experimental and theoretical studies.

Modeling the influence of alkane molecular structure on secondary organic aerosol formation.

Secondary Organic Aerosols (SOA) production and ageing is a multigenerational oxidation process involving the formation of successive organic compounds with higher oxidation degree and lower vapor pressure. Intermediate Volatility Organic Compounds (IVOC) emitted to the atmosphere are expected to be a substantial source of SOA. These emitted IVOC constitute a complex mixture including linear, branched and cyclic alkanes. The explicit gas-phase oxidation mechanisms are here generated for various linear and branched C10-C22 alkanes using the GECKO-A (Generator for Explicit Chemistry and Kinetics of Organics in the Atmosphere) and SOA formation is investigated for various homologous series. Simulation results show that both the size and the branching of the carbon skeleton are dominant factors driving the SOA yield. However, branching appears to be of secondary importance for the particle oxidation state and composition. The effect of alkane molecular structure on SOA yields appears to be consistent with recent laboratory observations. The simulated SOA composition shows, however, an unexpected major contribution from multifunctional organic nitrates. Most SOA contributors simulated for the oxidation of the various homologous series are far too reduced to be categorized as highly oxygenated organic aerosols (OOA). On a carbon basis, the OOA yields never exceeded 10% regardless of carbon chain length, molecular structure or ageing time. This version of the model appears clearly unable to explain a large production of OOA from alkane precursors.

Total radical yields from tropospheric ethene ozonolysis.

The gas-phase reactions of ozone with alkenes can be significant sources of free radicals (OH, HO(2) and RO(2)) in the Earth's atmosphere. In this study the total radical production and degradation products from ethene ozonolysis have been measured, under conditions relevant to the troposphere, during a series of detailed simulation chamber experiments. Experiments were carried out in the European photoreactor EUPHORE (Valencia, Spain), utilising various instrumentation including a chemical-ionisation-reaction time-of-flight mass-spectrometer (CIR-TOF-MS) measuring volatile organic compounds/oxygenated volatile organic compounds (VOCs/OVOCs), a laser induced fluorescence (LIF) system for measuring HO(2) radical products and a peroxy radical chemical amplification (PERCA) instrument measuring HO(2) + ΣRO(2). The ethene + ozone reaction system was investigated with and without an OH radical scavenger, in order to suppress side reactions. Radical concentrations were measured under dry and humid conditions and interpreted through detailed chemical chamber box modelling, incorporating the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCMv3.1) degradation scheme for ethene, which was updated to include a more explicit representation of the ethene-ozone reaction mechanism.The rate coefficient for the ethene + ozone reaction was measured to be (1.45 ± 0.25) × 10(-18) cm(3) molecules(-1) s(-1) at 298 K, and a stabilised Criegee intermediate yield of 0.54 ± 0.12 was determined from excess CO scavenger experiments. An OH radical yield of 0.17 ± 0.09 was determined using a cyclohexane scavenger approach, by monitoring the formation of the OH-initiated cyclohexane oxidation products and HO(2). The results highlight the importance of knowing the [HO(2)] (particularly under alkene limited conditions and high [O(3)]) and scavenger chemistry when deriving radical yields. An averaged HO(2) yield of 0.27 ± 0.07 was determined by LIF/model fitting. The observed yields are interpreted in terms of branching ratios for each channel within the postulated ethene ozonolysis mechanism.