Prevention and control of OQDS (olive quick decline syndrome) outbreaks caused by Xylella fastidiosa.

In Southern Italy, since 2013, there has been an ongoing Olive Quick Decline Syndrome (OQDS) outbreak, due to the bacterium Xylella fastidiosa, which has caused a dramatic impact from both socio-economic and environmental points of view. The main players involved in OQDS are represented by the insect vector, Philaenus spumarius, its host plants (olive trees and weeds) and the bacterium, X. fastidiosa. Current agronomic practices are mainly based on uprooting the sick olive trees and their surrounding ones, with later installment of olive cultivars more resistant to the bacterium infection. Unfortunately, both of these practices are having an undesirable impact on the environment (most of these olive trees were monumental ones) and on the economy. Based on a mathematical model expressed in terms of a nontrivial system of ordinary differential equations, our analysis has provided a clear picture of all possible steady states (feasible equilibria) and their stability properties, corresponding to a variety of different parameter scenarios; all of this has been illustrated by a set of computational experiments. A significant original contribution of this paper is the proof of the global asymptotic stability of each of the feasible equilibria under its existence assumptions, a fact that excludes multiple equilibria under the given conditions. It has emerged that the removal of a suitable amount of weed biomass (host plants of the juvenile stages of the insect vector of X. fastidiosa) from olive orchards and surrounding areas leads to the eradication of the epidemic, without requiring neither the removal nor the substitution of the existing olive trees.

Controlling the Spatial Spread of a Xylella Epidemic.

In a recent paper by one of the authors and collaborators, motivated by the Olive Quick Decline Syndrome (OQDS) outbreak, which has been ongoing in Southern Italy since 2013, a simple epidemiological model describing this epidemic was presented. Beside the bacterium Xylella fastidiosa, the main players considered in the model are its insect vectors, Philaenus spumarius, and the host plants (olive trees and weeds) of the insects and of the bacterium. The model was based on a system of ordinary differential equations, the analysis of which provided interesting results about possible equilibria of the epidemic system and guidelines for its numerical simulations. Although the model presented there was mathematically rather simplified, its analysis has highlighted threshold parameters that could be the target of control strategies within an integrated pest management framework, not requiring the removal of the productive resource represented by the olive trees. Indeed, numerical simulations support the outcomes of the mathematical analysis, according to which the removal of a suitable amount of weed biomass (reservoir of Xylella fastidiosa) from olive orchards and surrounding areas resulted in the most efficient strategy to control the spread of the OQDS. In addition, as expected, the adoption of more resistant olive tree cultivars has been shown to be a good strategy, though less cost-effective, in controlling the pathogen. In this paper for a more realistic description and a clearer interpretation of the proposed control measures, a spatial structure of the epidemic system has been included, but, in order to keep mathematical technicalities to a minimum, only two players have been described in a dynamical way, trees and insects, while the weed biomass is taken to be a given quantity. The control measures have been introduced only on a subregion of the whole habitat, in order to contain costs of intervention. We show that such a practice can lead to the eradication of an epidemic outbreak. Numerical simulations confirm both the results of the previous paper and the theoretical results of the model with a spatial structure, though subject to regional control only.

A mathematical model for malaria transmission with asymptomatic carriers and two age groups in the human population.

In this paper a conceptual mathematical model of malaria transmission proposed in a previous paper has been analyzed in a deeper detail. Among its key epidemiological features of this model, two-age-classes (child and adult) and asymptomatic carriers have been included. The extra mortality of mosquitoes due to the use of long-lasting treated mosquito nets (LLINs) and Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS) has been included too. By taking advantage of the natural double time scale of the parasite and the human populations, it has been possible to provide interesting threshold results. In particular it has been shown that key parameters can be identified such that below a threshold level, built on these parameters, the epidemic tends to extinction, while above another threshold level it tends to a nontrivial endemic state, for which an interval estimate has been provided. Numerical simulations confirm the analytical results.

The interplay between models and public health policies: Regional control for a class of spatially structured epidemics (think globally, act locally).

A review is presented here of the research carried out, by a group including the authors, on the mathematical analysis of epidemic systems. Particular attention is paid to recent analysis of optimal control problems related to spatially structured epidemics driven by environmental pollution. A relevant problem, related to the possible eradication of the epidemic, is the so called zero stabilization. In a series of papers, necessary conditions, and sufficient conditions of stabilizability have been obtained. It has been proved that it is possible to diminish exponentially the epidemic process, in the whole habitat, just by reducing the concentration of the pollutant in a nonempty and sufficiently large subset of the spatial domain. The stabilizability with a feedback control of harvesting type is related to the magnitude of the principal eigenvalue of a certain operator. The problem of finding the optimal position (by translation) of the support of the feedback stabilizing control is faced, in order to minimize both the infected population and the pollutant at a certain finite time.

On the mathematical modelling of tumor-induced angiogenesis.

An angiogenic system is taken as an example of extremely complex ones in the field of Life Sciences, from both analytical and computational points of view, due to the strong coupling between the kinetic parameters of the relevant branching - growth - anastomosis stochastic processes of the capillary network, at the microscale, and the family of interacting underlying biochemical fields, at the macroscale. To reduce this complexity, for a conceptual stochastic model we have explored how to take advantage of the system intrinsic multiscale structure: one might describe the stochastic dynamics of the cells at the vessel tip at their natural microscale, whereas the dynamics of the underlying fields is given by a deterministic mean field approximation obtained by an averaging at a suitable mesoscale. But the outcomes of relevant numerical simulations show that the proposed model, in presence of anastomosis, is not self-averaging, so that the ``propagation of chaos" assumption cannot be applied to obtain a deterministic mean field approximation. On the other hand we have shown that ensemble averages over many realizations of the stochastic system may better correspond to a deterministic reaction-diffusion system.

Inverse problems in geographical economics: parameter identification in the spatial Solow model.

The identification of production functions from data is an important task in the modelling of economic growth. In this paper, we consider a non-parametric approach to this identification problem in the context of the spatial Solow model which allows for rather general production functions, in particular convex-concave ones that have recently been proposed as reasonable shapes. We formulate the inverse problem and apply Tikhonov regularization. The inverse problem is discretized by finite elements and solved iteratively via a preconditioned gradient descent approach. Numerical results for the reconstruction of the production function are given and analysed at the end of this paper.

Randomness in self-organized phenomena. A case study: retinal angiogenesis.

This note presents a review of recent work by the authors on angiogenesis, as a case study for analyzing the role of randomness in the formation of biological patterns. The mathematical description of the formation of new vessels is presented, based on a system of stochastic differential equations, coupled with a branching process, both of them driven by a set of relevant chemotactic underlying fields. A discussion follows about the possible reduction of complexity of the above approach, by mean field approximations of the underlying fields. The crucial role of randomness at the microscale is observed in order to obtain nontrivial realistic vessel networks.

Stochastic modelling of tumour-induced angiogenesis.

A major source of complexity in the mathematical modelling of an angiogenic process derives from the strong coupling of the kinetic parameters of the relevant stochastic branching-and-growth of the capillary network with a family of interacting underlying fields. The aim of this paper is to propose a novel mathematical approach for reducing complexity by (locally) averaging the stochastic cell, or vessel densities in the evolution equations of the underlying fields, at the mesoscale, while keeping stochasticity at lower scales, possibly at the level of individual cells or vessels. This method leads to models which are known as hybrid models. In this paper, as a working example, we apply our method to a simplified stochastic geometric model, inspired by the relevant literature, for a spatially distributed angiogenic process. The branching mechanism of blood vessels is modelled as a stochastic marked counting process describing the branching of new tips, while the network of vessels is modelled as the union of the trajectories developed by tips, according to a system of stochastic differential equations à la Langevin.

[Obstructive sleep apnea syndrome and cardiovascular diseases]. / Sindrome dell'apnea ostruttiva notturna e malattie cardiovascolari.

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) syndrome is one of the most common respiratory disorders in humans. There is emerging evidence linking OSA to vascular disease, particularly hypertension. The underlying pathophysiological mechanisms that link OSA to cardiovascular diseases such as hypertension, congestive heart failure and atrial fibrillation are not entirely understood, although they certainly include mechanical events, increased sympathetic activity and oxidative stress. This review will examine the evidence and mechanisms linking OSA syndrome to cardiovascular disease.

Stochastic geometric models, and related statistical issues in tumour-induced angiogenesis.

In the modelling and statistical analysis of tumor-driven angiogenesis it is of great importance to handle random closed sets of different (though integer) Hausdorff dimensions, usually smaller than the full dimension of the relevant space. Here an original approach is reported, based on random generalized densities (distributions) á la Dirac-Schwartz, and corresponding mean generalized densities. The above approach also suggests methods for the statistical estimation of geometric densities of the stochastic fibre system that characterize the morphology of a real vascular system. A quantitative description of the evolution of tumor-driven angiogenesis requires the mathematical modelling of a strongly coupled system of a stochastic branching-and-growth process of fibres, modelling the network of blood vessels, and a family of underlying fields, modelling biochemical signals. Methods for reducing complexity include homogenization at mesoscales, thus leading to hybrid models (deterministic at the larger scale, and stochastic at lower scales); in tumor-driven angiogenesis the two scales can be bridged by introducing a mesoscale at which one locally averages the microscopic branching-and-growth process, in presence of a sufficiently large number of vessels (fibers).

An interacting particle system modelling aggregation behavior: from individuals to populations.

In this paper we investigate the stochastic modelling of a spatially structured biological population subject to social interaction. The biological motivation comes from the analysis of field experiments on a species of ants which exhibits a clear tendency to aggregate, still avoiding overcrowding. The model we propose here provides an explanation of this experimental behavior in terms of "long-ranged" aggregation and "short-ranged" repulsion mechanisms among individuals, in addition to an individual random dispersal described by a Brownian motion. Further, based on a "law of large numbers", we discuss the convergence, for large N, of a system of stochastic differential equations describing the evolution of N individuals (Lagrangian approach) to a deterministic integro-differential equation describing the evolution of the mean-field spatial density of the population (Eulerian approach).