ABSTRACT
Sixteen EU scientists and doctors were interviewed about pandemic planning using psychometric methods applied to a scientific problem for the first time. Criticism was aimed at countries which have no plan whatsoever, the majority of nations. Many such countries have not invested in scientific infrastructure and public health. Amongst the 15 or so published pandemic plans a lack of detail was identified. Of particular need was investment into avian virus vaccine stocks (H1-15), prepared licenses of vaccine and pre purchase and agreed distribution, investment into stocks of antivirals, antibiotics and masks. Most but not all members of the group predicted a global outbreak within 5 years, most probably starting in SE Asia. However it was recognised that a pandemic could start anywhere in the world which had juxtaposition of young people, chickens, ducks and pigs. Mammalian cell culture production using wild type virus with the production factory at category III levels of security was exemplified. Antivirals would be essential to ameliorate the first wave of infection although significant quantities of cell grown vaccine could be produced if, as in 1918, 1957 and 1968 there is a long period between the first virus isolation and person to person spread. The wider scientific community is more energised than previously for very serious preparations to be in place way before the outbreak begins as this is a major public health problem, completely dwarfing concerns about bioterrorism.
