Pyrethroid resistance distribution in Triatoma infestans and environmental association along the Argentine endemic zone.

Insecticide resistance is considered a barrier to chemical control of Triatoma infestans, the main vector of Chagas disease in the Southern Cone of South America. Although initiatives to reduce the incidence of the disease in the region have integrated different strategies, they have mainly relied on vector elimination using pyrethroid insecticides such as deltamethrin. Reports of pyrethroid resistance in connection with T. infestans control failures first emerged in northern Argentina and southern Bolivia. Recently, a mosaic pyrethroid-resistant focus has been described in the center of the Argentine Gran Chaco (Department of General Güemes, Chaco Province), characterized by the presence of susceptible and very highly resistant populations in the same area. The involvement of different resistance mechanisms has been proposed, together with the contribution of environmental variables that promote the toxicological heterogeneity described. In the endemic zone of Argentina, however, new questions arise: Are there any other clusters of resistance? Is there a relationship between the distribution of resistance and environmental variables (as has been observed at smaller scale)? We studied toxicological data from insects collected and analyzed at 224 localities between 2010 and 2020 as part of the resistance monitoring conducted by the Chagas National Program. The sites were classified according to the survival rate of insects exposed to a discriminant dose of deltamethrin: 0-0.19 were considered susceptible, 0.2-0.79 low-resistance, and 0.8-1 high-resistance. Localities were georeferenced to describe the spatial distribution of resistance and to identify environmental variables (demographics, land use, urbanization, connectivity, and climate) potentially associated with resistance. We used Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) to examine the association between resistance and environmental predictors, selecting error distributions based on the response variable definition. For the entire period, 197 susceptible localities were distributed across the endemic zone. Localities with different survival rates were found throughout the area; 9 high-resistance localities circled the two previously identified resistant foci, and 18 low-resistance in 6 provinces, highlighting their relevance for control planning. Precipitation variables were linked to resistance in all the GLMs evaluated. Presence/absence models were the most accurate, with precipitation, distance from the capital city, and land use contributing to the distribution of resistance. This information could be valuable for improving T. infestans control strategies in future scenarios characterized by unpredictable changes in land use and precipitation.

Exploring the range of Culex mosquitoes in Western Argentinean Patagonia, unveiling the presence of Culex pipiens bioform pipiens in South America.

Culicids in Argentinean Patagonia are characterized by low species diversity and adaptation to extreme environmental conditions, yet few studies have been conducted in the region. To further assess the occurrence of Culicidae in Western Patagonia, and in particular the presence of Culex pipiens bioforms at the southernmost extent of their distribution, immature and adult specimens were collected aboveground across various land uses located in shrubland, steppe, and deciduous forest between 38.96 and 46.55°S. Mosquitoes were reported at 35 of the 105 inspected sites. Five species from the genus Culex were identified, all of which were present in the steppe and the forest, while only Cx. apicinus and members of the Cx. pipiens complex were collected in the shrubland. Within the latter, a total of 150 specimens were molecularly identified by PCR amplification of Ace-2 and CQ11 loci. The first-to-date occurrence of bioform pipiens in South America is reported, along with the first records of Cx. quinquefasciatus signatures in Patagonia. In addition, the distribution of Cx. acharistus and Cx. dolosus as south as Santa Cruz province is expanded, and the first record of Cx. eduardoi in Río Negro province is provided. Immature specimens of Cx. pipiens were conspicuous in human-made aquatic habitats (both containers and in the ground), while Cx. acharistus was more prominent in artificial containers and Cx. eduardoi was mainly in ground habitats, either natural or human-made. These findings provide valuable insights into the distribution and ecological roles of these mosquito species in a region of extreme environmental conditions.

Age and socio-economic status affect dengue and COVID-19 incidence: spatio-temporal analysis of the 2020 syndemic in Buenos Aires City.

In early 2020, Argentina experienced the worst dengue outbreak in its history, concomitant with first-to-date increasing COVID-19 cases. Dengue epidemics in temperate Argentina have already been described as spatially heterogeneous; in the previous 2016 outbreak, transmission occurred 7.3 times more frequently in slums compared to the rest of Buenos Aires City (CABA). These informal settlements have deficient sanitary conditions, precarious housing and high incidence of social vulnerabilities. The purpose of this work was to study the spatio-temporal patterns of the 2020 dengue epidemic in CABA in relation to socio-economic living conditions of its inhabitants and its interaction with the onset of COVID-19. The study considered the period between Jan 1st and May 30th 2020. Dengue and COVID-19 databases were obtained from the National Health Surveillance System; each record was anonymized and geo-localized. The city was divided according to census tracts and grouped in four socio-economic strata: slums, high, mid and low residential. An aligned-rank transform ANOVA was performed to test for differences in the incidence of dengue and COVID-19, and age at death due to COVID-19, among socio-economic strata, four age categories and their interaction. The incidence by cluster was calculated with a distance matrix up to 600 m from the centroid. Spatial joint dengue and COVID-19 risk was estimated by multiplying the nominal risk for each disease, defined from 1 (low) to 5 (high) according to their quantiles. During the study period, 7,175 dengue cases were registered in CABA (incidence rate 23.3 cases per 10,000 inh), 29.2% of which occurred in slums. During the same period, 8,809 cases of COVID-19 were registered (28.6 cases per 10,000 inh); over half (51.4%) occurred in slums, where the median age of cases (29 years old) was lower than in residential areas (42 years old). The mean age of the deceased was 58 years old in slums compared to 79 years old outside. The percentage of deaths in patients under 60 years old was 56% in slums compared to 8% in the rest of the city. The incidence of both diseases was higher in slums than in residential areas for most age categories. Spatial patterns were heterogeneous: dengue presented higher incidence values in the southern sector of the city and the west, and low values in highly urbanized quarters, whereas COVID-19 presented higher values in the east, south, high populated areas and slums. The lowest joint risk clusters were located mainly in high residential areas, whereas high joint risk was observed mainly in the south, some western clusters, the historical part of the city and center north. The social epidemiological perspective of dengue and COVID-19 differed, given that socio environmental heterogeneity influenced the burden of both viruses in a different manner. Despite the overwhelming effect of the COVID-19 pandemic, health care towards other diseases, especially in territories with pre-existing vulnerabilities, should not be unattended.

Blood feeding patterns of the Culex pipiens complex in equestrian land uses and their implications for arboviral encephalitis risk in temperate Argentina.

Blood feeding patterns of mosquitoes are a key component in the dynamics of arboviral encephalitides transmission. In temperate Argentina, the members of the Culex pipiens complex include Cx. pipiens molestus, Cx. quinquefasciatus and their hybrids. To characterize their blood feeding patterns, adult resting mosquitoes were collected monthly during the warm season in urban and rural equestrian fields. The availability of birds and domestic mammals per site was characterized. The blood source and the complex member were successfully identified for 89 specimens using PCR. Blood of 19 vertebrate species was isolated including four mammals (most common feeds from dog, Canus lupus 19% of the blood meals; and horse, Equus caballus 18%) and 15 birds (picazuro pigeon, Patagioenas picazuro 11%; eared dove, Zenaida auriculata 10%; chicken, Gallus gallus 9%). The Forage Ratio (FR), calculated as the proportion of feeds taken from a given host species with respect to that host availability in the environment, suggested preference for dog by all members of the complex (FR ≥4.5). On the contrary, FR values suggested avoidance for horse by Cx. quinquefasciatus and the hybrid (FR ≤0.8), and a use proportional to its abundance by Cx. pipiens molestus (FR = 1.1-1.2 in urban and rural sites, respectively). FR values suggesting preference were obtained for avian species of the orders Passeriformes (7 species in total) and Columbiformes (5) by all members of the complex (FR ≥ 3.3), whereas values for monk parakeet (Myiopsitta monachus, Psiitaciformes) suggested avoidance by Cx. quinquefasciatus in urban sites (FR = 0.4) and by Cx. pipiens molestus in rural sites (FR = 0.3) but not in urban sites (FR = 1.4). A mammal-bird index (MBI, from -1 all avian to +1 all mammalian blood meals) was calculated for each member of the complex and urbanization category. Values were negative for Cx. quinquefasciatus (MBIurban  = -0.60, MBIrural  = -0.33) and positive for Cx. pipiens molestus (MBIurban  = 0.20, MBIrural  = 0.60), indicating a higher proportion of feeds taken on birds and mammals, respectively, regardless of the urbanization category. In temperate Argentina, the members of the Cx. pipiens complex fed both on horses and on birds, thus representing a real risk of transmission of arboviral encephalitides from avian enzootic cycles to horse epizootics.

Modelling relative abundance of Oligoryzomys flavescens, an Orthohantavirus reservoir, in an endemic hantavirus pulmonary syndrome zone.

Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) is a zoonotic emerging infectious disease caused by New World orthohantaviruses (family Hantaviridae) hosted by rodents of the family Cricetidae. In Argentina, one of its main hosts is the sigmodontine rodent Oligoryzomys flavescens, a widely distributed mouse of the Pampas, Delta and Espinal ecoregions of central-east Argentina. Because the abundance of the reservoir and its proportion in the rodent community affects both virus prevalence and human exposure risk, its estimation throughout its known geographical distribution is of key importance for the design of public health strategies to prevent HPS. The aim of this study was therefore to model the relative abundance of O. flavescens in most of the Pampas ecoregion within Buenos Aires Province, Argentina, where hantavirus pulmonary syndrome is endemic. To do this we used owl-pellet samples collected between 2006 and 2008 from 51 sites distributed throughout most of Buenos Aires province. Mammalian prey in each pellet was identified to the lowest possible taxonomic level by examination of the skulls, dentaries and molars. We modelled the frequency of O. flavescens found in each sample as a function of climatic, environmental, and topographic data of each site. The two best models were applied to a Geo referential Information System to build maps of estimated frequency (as a proxy of relative abundance) within Buenos Aires province. Estimated relative abundance of O. flavescens in Buenos Aires province was significantly associated with annual mean temperature, annual precipitation and presence of freshwater bodies, and varied among sub-regions, with the Inland and Rolling Pampas being the regions with highest frequencies. Knowing in which areas O. flavescens abundance is expected to be higher can be used to concentrate limited sanitary efforts in those areas that are most needed in order to reduce transmission and increase detection.

Aedes aegypti spreading in South America: new coldest and southernmost records.

The geographic distribution of Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.) in South America has been expanding during the last decades. Herein we present two new distribution records that extend its southern limits towards localities with extremer environmental conditions than reported to date. San Antonio Oeste constitutes the southernmost finding for the continent (40º44'S), whereas Tandil is the infested locality with the coldest mean annual temperature in Argentina (14.17ºC). The projection of a previous distribution model for Ae. aegypti predicts these two cities as positive and suggests several other localities with suitable conditions for vector proliferation beyond its assumed distribution limits.

Assessment of Culex pipiens bioforms in the world's southernmost distribution limit.

The mosquito Culex pipiens s.s. L. occurs as two bioforms that differ in physiology and behaviour affecting virus transmission cycles. To assess the occurrence of Cx. pipiens bioforms in the southernmost limit of its distribution, specimens were collected aboveground in southern Buenos Aires Province and east Patagonia, Argentina. Ten larvae and 25 adults were individually processed and identified by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification of Ace-2 and CQ11 loci. Culex quinquefasciatus Say (one larva, two adults), Cx. pipiens f. molestus (one larva, one adult) and one adult of hybrid origin were identified in Buenos Aires Province; only Cx. pipiens f. molestus was recorded in Patagonia (eight larvae, 21 adults). The potential absence of bioform pipiens and its implications in arbovirus enzootic cycles is discussed.

Hantavirus infection and biodiversity in the Americas.

Species diversity has been proposed to decrease prevalence of disease in a wide variety of host-pathogen systems, in a phenomenon labeled the dilution effect. This phenomenon was first proposed and tested for vector-borne diseases but was later extended to directly transmitted parasite systems such as hantavirus. Though there seems to be clear evidence for the dilution effect in some hantavirus/rodent systems, the generality of this hypothesis remains debated. In the present meta-analysis, we examined the evidence supporting the dilution effect for hantavirus/rodent systems in the Americas. General linear models employed on data from 56 field studies identified the abundance of the reservoir rodent species and its relative proportion in the community as the only relevant variables explaining the prevalence of antibodies against hantavirus in the reservoir. Thus, we found no clear support for the dilution effect hypothesis for hantavirus/rodent systems in the Americas.

Soil presence reduces the control effectiveness of a slow-release formulation of pyriproxyfen on Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) larvae.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the influence of soil on the effectiveness of two new slow-release formulations (floating and non-floating) of pyriproxyfen coextruded with low-density polyethylene. METHODS: Two slow-release devices were developed using low-density polyethylene, pyriproxyfen as larvicide and calcium carbonate as filler. A factorial design was used to evaluate the effect of soil presence on the performance of each device. Weekly bioassays were performed. RESULTS: Soil presence affected treatment effectiveness, but this effect was associated with device type. The tablets were effective for nearly 3 months. CONCLUSION: Treatment effectiveness could be reduced because of the loss of pyriproxyfen by several physico-chemical processes such as adsorption into the soil.

OBJECTIF: Evaluer l'influence de la terre sur l'efficacité de deux nouvelles formulations à libération lente (flottante et non flottante) de pyriproxyfène coextrudé avec du polyéthylène de faible densité. MÉTHODES: Deux dispositifs à libération lente ont été développés en utilisant du polyéthylène de faible densité, du pyriproxyfène comme larvicide et du carbonate de calcium comme agent de charge. Un plan factoriel a été utilisé pour évaluer l'effet de la présence de terre sur les performances de chaque dispositif. Des essais biologiques hebdomadaires ont été effectués. RÉSULTATS: La présence de terre a affecté l'efficacité du traitement, mais cet effet était associé au type de dispositif. Les comprimés ont été efficaces pendant près de 3 mois. CONCLUSION: L'efficacité du traitement pourrait être réduite en raison de la perte du pyriproxyfène par plusieurs processus physicochimiques tels que l'adsorption sur la terre.

Aedes aegypti spreading in South America: new coldest and southernmost records

The geographic distribution of Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.) in South America has been expanding during the last decades. Herein we present two new distribution records that extend its southern limits towards localities with extremer environmental conditions than reported to date. San Antonio Oeste constitutes the southernmost finding for the continent (40º44'S), whereas Tandil is the infested locality with the coldest mean annual temperature in Argentina (14.17ºC). The projection of a previous distribution model for Ae. aegypti predicts these two cities as positive and suggests several other localities with suitable conditions for vector proliferation beyond its assumed distribution limits.

Assessment of Culex pipiens bioforms in the world's southernmost distribution limit

The mosquito Culex pipiens s.s. L. occurs as two bioforms that differ in physiology and behaviour affecting virus transmission cycles. To assess the occurrence of Cx. pipiens bioforms in the southernmost limit of its distribution, specimens were collected aboveground in southern Buenos Aires Province and east Patagonia, Argentina. Ten larvae and 25 adults were individually processed and identified by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification of Ace-2 and CQ11 loci. Culex quinquefasciatus Say (one larva, two adults), Cx. pipiens f. molestus (one larva, one adult) and one adult of hybrid origin were identified in Buenos Aires Province; only Cx. pipiens f. molestus was recorded in Patagonia (eight larvae, 21 adults). The potential absence of bioform pipiens and its implications in arbovirus enzootic cycles is discussed.

Dogs in public spaces of Buenos Aires, Argentina: Exploring patterns of the abundance of dogs, the canine faecal contamination, the behaviour of people with dogs, and its relationships with demographic/economic variables.

The level of faecal contamination in urban public spaces depends on the behaviour of dogs's owners as well as on dog abundance. The aims of the present study were to explore patterns of the relative abundance of dogs, the canine faecal contamination, the behaviour of owners and dog walkers towards their pets, and their relationship with human demographic/economic variables in Buenos Aires city. We carried out a cross sectional study that included 67 randomly selected sampling sites (street corners). Each sampling site was evaluated one only time by two trained students under our supervision and all sighted dogs between 7 and 11 a.m. in both sidewalks of each corner were counted (spring 2013, 23 days of sampling). Data about dogs and people were obtained by using a standardized questionnaire and by direct observation. Feces censuses in 242 sidewalks were carried out. The sidewalks were randomly selected and its characteristics were registered (i.e. number of shops, trees). GIS was loaded with the city´s cartography and the values for nine variables used as demographic/economic indicators were obtained disaggregated by demographic units (National Census). Generalized linear models were used to identify the environmental and demographic variables related to the number of dogs sighted per site and feces per sidewalk. Explanatory variables per site included human density, number of inhabitants, households, precarious housing, proportion of children, maximum educational level and drinking water provision. For the sidewalks number of shops, trees, tree pits, broken sectors and total length were added. Also, variables regarding dog's owners and dog walkers behaviour were compared. A total of 1193 dog's owners, 234 dog walkers and 2835 dogs were sighted. The number of observed pets and that of people sighted with dogs showed a positive relationship with the economic level and the human density. The stool number per sidewalk increased with the higher number of broken sectors, higher number of tree pits per meter of sidewalk and the lower number of shops on it. The stool number per sidewalk was lower when 40% or more people with dogs carried waste bag to clean dogs' feces. Our results indicate that dog walkers compared to owners showed different behavioural patterns towards the pets (bag to remove dog's fouling, leash use, use of the green spaces, etc).

Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome Risk in Entre Ríos, Argentina.

Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) is a severe emerging endemic disease of the Americas. Because hantavirus reservoirs are sylvatic rodents, HPS risk has been associated with occupational and recreational activities in natural and rural environments. The aim of this study was to analyze the risk of HPS in an endemic province of Argentina. For this, we explored the relationship between HPS cases occurring in Entre Ríos province between 2004 and 2015 and climate, vegetation, landscape, reservoir population, and rodent community characteristics by means of generalized linear models. We modeled HPS occurrence at each site, and both the incidence and number of cases grouped by department. The resulting best model of each analysis was applied in a GIS to build HPS risk maps. Risk of occurrence of HPS increased with tree cover and decreased with distance to rivers. We identified the south of Entre Ríos as the area with higher HPS risk, and therefore, where HPS prevention measures should be more urgently applied. Risk maps based on data available in the public domain are a useful tool that should be used by decision makers to concentrate surveillance and control efforts in those areas with highest HPS risk.

Assessment of combined tools and strategies for Aedes aegypti control with low environmental impact.

The control of the mosquito vector Aedes aegypti L. (Diptera: Culicidae) is the main action against dengue, chikungunya, and Zika. The excessive use of conventional insecticides has promoted the development of other control methods and strategies with lower environmental impact. We evaluated the effectiveness of applying triflumuron 1 ppm and emptying water-filled containers in a field trial in temperate Argentina. Both control methods were implemented either individually or combined and regularly from the beginning of the mosquito reproductive season or once it reached peak abundance. The impact on a non-target midge of the genus Chironomus was also tested. The highest reductions of Ae. aegypti were achieved in treatments which included triflumuron. This effect was stronger when applied from the beginning of the reproductive season, with < 1.3% of positive containers throughout the entire season. No enhancing effects were obtained when combining both control methods. Treatments with triflumuron were not completely innocuous for the non-target species, with Chironomus sp. more susceptible to treatments including triflumuron applied from the beginning of the reproductive season than all others. Sharp reductions of mosquito populations in urban environments with high density of water-filled containers are possible with minimum container management efforts, by applying triflumuron 1 ppm every 6 weeks. In temperate urban settings, better results can be obtained when applications begin early in the reproductive season of the mosquito vector Aedes aegypti.

Is autumn the key for dengue epidemics in non endemic regions? The case of Argentina.

BACKGROUND: Dengue is a major and rapidly increasing public health problem. In Argentina, the southern extreme of its distribution in the Americas, epidemic transmission takes place during the warm season. Since its re-emergence in 1998 two major outbreaks have occurred, the biggest during 2016. To identify the environmental factors that trigger epidemic events, we analyzed the occurrence and magnitude of dengue outbreaks in time and space at different scales in association with climatic, geographic and demographic variables and number of cases in endemic neighboring countries. METHODS: Information on dengue cases was obtained from dengue notifications reported in the National Health Surveillance System. The resulting database was analyzed by Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) under three methodological approaches to: identify in which years the most important outbreaks occurred in association with environmental variables and propose a risk estimation for future epidemics (temporal approach); characterize which variables explain the occurrence of local outbreaks through time (spatio-temporal approach); and select the environmental drivers of the geographical distribution of dengue positive districts during 2016 (spatial approach). RESULTS: Within the temporal approach, the number of dengue cases country-wide between 2009 and 2016 was positively associated with the number of dengue cases in bordering endemic countries and negatively with the days necessary for transmission (DNT) during the previous autumn in the central region of the country. Annual epidemic intensity in the period between 1999-2016 was associated with DNT during previous autumn and winter. Regarding the spatio-temporal approach, dengue cases within a district were also associated with mild conditions in the previous autumn along with the number of dengue cases in neighboring countries. As for the spatial approach, the best model for the occurrence of two or more dengue cases per district included autumn minimum temperature and human population as fixed factors, and the province as a grouping variable. Explanatory power of all models was high, in the range 57-95%. DISCUSSION: Given the epidemic nature of dengue in Argentina, virus pressure from endemic neighboring countries along with climatic conditions are crucial to explain disease dynamics. In the three methodological approaches, temperature conditions during autumn were best associated with dengue patterns. We propose that mild autumns represent an advantage for mosquito vector populations and that, in temperate regions, this advantage manifests as a larger egg bank from which the adult population will re-emerge in spring. This may constitute a valuable anticipating tool for high transmission risk events.

Distribution of the members of the Pipiens Assemblage in the sympatric area from Argentina: which is where and when?

Given their medical and veterinary relevance, the members of the Pipiens Assemblage are a worldwide target of ecological research. The distribution of Culex pipiens s.s. and Cx. quinquefasciatus converge in Buenos Aires, Argentina, where hybrids have been detected. Each member of the assemblage exhibits a distinct eco-physiological behaviour that can affect its efficiency in pathogen transmission. Our aim was to identify the environmental drivers for the spatio-temporal distribution of each member, focusing on latitudinal and urbanisation gradients. Immatures of mosquitoes were surveyed in artificial containers found within 11 public cemeteries, raised up to the adult stage and identified by their male genitalia. The distribution of each member was associated with the environment in a Generalized Linear Model. The variable accounting for most of the heterogeneity was latitude; Cx. quinquefasciatus was collected more frequently at northern cemeteries, whereas Cx. pipiens and hybrids were more likely at the southern extreme. The urbanisation gradient was also associated with the occurrence of Cx. quinquefasciatus and hybrids at the high and low end, respectively. Other relevant variables were cemetery total area, the proportion with graves and the presence of plastic flowers in the containers. The spatial distribution of the members of the Pipiens Assemblage within the sympatric region in South America is driven by environmental features. The information presented herein provides essential baseline data for surveillance programs and control activities.

Distribution of the members of the Pipiens Assemblage in the sympatric area from Argentina: which is where and when?

Given their medical and veterinary relevance, the members of the Pipiens Assemblage are a worldwide target of ecological research. The distribution of Culex pipiens s.s. and Cx. quinquefasciatus converge in Buenos Aires, Argentina, where hybrids have been detected. Each member of the assemblage exhibits a distinct eco-physiological behaviour that can affect its efficiency in pathogen transmission. Our aim was to identify the environmental drivers for the spatio-temporal distribution of each member, focusing on latitudinal and urbanisation gradients. Immatures of mosquitoes were surveyed in artificial containers found within 11 public cemeteries, raised up to the adult stage and identified by their male genitalia. The distribution of each member was associated with the environment in a Generalized Linear Model. The variable accounting for most of the heterogeneity was latitude; Cx. quinquefasciatus was collected more frequently at northern cemeteries, whereas Cx. pipiens and hybrids were more likely at the southern extreme. The urbanisation gradient was also associated with the occurrence of Cx. quinquefasciatus and hybrids at the high and low end, respectively. Other relevant variables were cemetery total area, the proportion with graves and the presence of plastic flowers in the containers. The spatial distribution of the members of the Pipiens Assemblage within the sympatric region in South America is driven by environmental features. The information presented herein provides essential baseline data for surveillance programs and control activities.

Evaluación de la epidemia argentina de Dengue, 2015-2016 / Evaluation of the argentine Dengue epidemic, 2015-2016

El dengue es una de las principales enfermedades tropicales emergentes. Se estima que 3.900 millones de personas, de 128 países, están en riesgo de infección por los virus del dengue. En Argentina al mosquito Aedes aegypti, vector del virus del dengue, se lo consideró erradicado en 1963 y 1965. En nuestro país el dengue reemergió en el año 1998 ocasionando desde entonces brotes de distinta magnitud cada año (excepto 2001 y 2005 donde no hubo casos registrados). Con anterioridad a la temporada 2015-2016, el brote de mayor magnitud ocurrió en 2009 con más de 26.000 casos. La mayor parte de los brotes en Argentina comenzaron en localidades limítrofes con Bolivia, Paraguay y Brasil para luego extenderse a otras localidades más alejadas. Éste trabajo pretendió estudiar la dinámica espacio-temporal de la distribución de casos de dengue de la Argentina y los factores ambientales y sociodemográficos a los que estuvieron asociados en las epidemias de 2009 y 2015-2016. En esta investigación se trabajó con técnicas de reconocimiento de variables predictivas para la ocurrencia y dispersión de los brotes de dengue en el territorio. Como era esperable, el clima y las epidemias en países limítrofes fueron cruciales para pronosticar la transmisión en el país, que continúa mostrando un comportamiento epidémico respecto al dengue. Los modelos espacio-temporales de la distribución de casos entre 2009 y 2016 mostraron también relación al mismo tipo de variables, pero priorizando la situación de circulación de virus en países limítrofes

Regional Extinctions and Quaternary Shifts in the Geographic Range of Lestodelphys halli, the Southernmost Living Marsupial: Clues for Its Conservation.

The Patagonian opossum (Lestodelphys halli), the southernmost living marsupial, inhabits dry and open environments, mainly in the Patagonian steppe (between ~32 °S and ~49 °S). Its rich fossil record shows its occurrence further north in Central Argentina during the Quaternary. The paleoenvironmental meaning of the past distribution of L. halli has been mostly addressed in a subjective framework without an explicit connection with the climatic "space" currently occupied by this animal. Here, we assessed the potential distribution of this species and the changes occurred in its geographic range during late Pleistocene-Holocene times and linked the results obtained with conservation issues. To this end, we generated three potential distribution models with fossil records and three with current ones, using MaxEnt software. These models showed a decrease in the suitable habitat conditions for the species, highlighting a range shift from Central-Eastern to South-Western Argentina. Our results support that the presence of L. halli in the Pampean region during the Pleistocene-Holocene can be related to precipitation and temperature variables and that its current presence in Patagonia is more related to temperature and dominant soils. The models obtained suggest that the species has been experiencing a reduction in its geographic range since the middle Holocene, a process that is in accordance with a general increase in moisture and temperature in Central Argentina. Considering the findings of our work and the future scenario of global warming projected for Patagonia, we might expect a harsh impact on the distribution range of this opossum in the near future.

Waiting for chikungunya fever in Argentina: spatio-temporal risk maps.

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) transmission has been detected in America in 2013 and recently reached south up to Bolivia, Brazil and Paraguay, bordering countries of Argentina. The presence of the mosquito Aedes aegypti in half of the country together with the regional context drove us to make a rapid assessment of transmission risk. Temperature thresholds for vector breeding and for virus transmission, together with adult activity from the literature, were mapped on a monthly basis to estimate risk. Transmission of chikungunya by Ae. aegypti in the world was seen at monthly mean temperatures from 21-34ºC, with the majority occurring between 26-28ºC. In Argentina temperatures above 21ºC are observed since September in the northeast, expanding south until January and retreating back to the northeast in April. The maximum area under risk encompasses more than half the country and around 32 million inhabitants. Vector adult activity was registered where monthly means temperatures exceeded 13ºC, in the northeast all over the year and in the northern half from September-May. The models herein proposed show that conditions for transmission are already present. Considering the regional context and the historic inability to control dengue in the region, chikungunya fever illness seems unavoidable.