Differential pulse oximetry readings between ethnic groups and delayed transfer to intensive care units.

BACKGROUND: Pulse oximeters are widely used to monitor blood oxygen saturations, although concerns exist that they are less accurate in individuals with pigmented skin. AIMS: This study aimed to determine if patients with pigmented skin were more severely unwell at the period of transfer to intensive care units (ICUs) than individuals with White skin. METHODS: Using data from a large teaching hospital, measures of clinical severity at the time of transfer of patients with COVID-19 infection to ICUs were assessed, and how this varied by ethnic group. RESULTS: Data were available on 748 adults. Median pulse oximetry demonstrated similar oxygen saturations at the time of transfer to ICUs (Kruskal-Wallis test, P = 0.51), although median oxygen saturation measurements from arterial blood gases at this time demonstrated lower oxygen saturations in patients classified as Indian/Pakistani ethnicity (91.6%) and Black/Mixed ethnicity (93.0%), compared to those classified as a White ethnicity (94.4%, Kruskal-Wallis test, P = 0.005). There were significant differences in mean respiratory rates in these patients (P < 0.0001), ranging from 26 breaths/min in individuals with White ethnicity to 30 breaths/min for those classified as Indian/Pakistani ethnicity and 31 for those who were classified as Black/Mixed ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: These data are consistent with the hypothesis that differential measurement error for pulse oximeter readings negatively impact on the escalation of clinical care in individuals from other than White ethnic groups. This has implications for healthcare in Africa and South-East Asia and may contribute to differences in health outcomes across ethnic groups globally.

Obesity and type 2 diabetes are important risk factors underlying previously undiagnosed cirrhosis in general practice: a cross-sectional study using transient elastography.

BACKGROUND: Rising cirrhosis incidence and mortality in the United Kingdom has been attributed predominantly to excess alcohol consumption. However, metabolic risk factors such as Type 2 diabetes and obesity may also be important. AIM: To screen at-risk individuals in general practice for undetected cirrhosis using transient elastography and study the risk factors underlying these cases. METHODS: The study was undertaken in 4 general practices (adult patient population 20 868) between February 2012 and September 2014. Patients with defined risk factors for chronic liver disease (hazardous alcohol use and/or Type 2 diabetes) were identified from the General Practice electronic records and invited for transient elastography. Elevated liver stiffness was defined as ≥8 kPa. Cirrhosis was confirmed by established histological, radiological and biochemical methods. RESULTS: Two thousand three hundred and sixty eight patients were invited for transient elastography and 899/919 who attended (97.8%) had valid measurements. Of these 230 patients had elevated liver stiffness (25.6%) and 27 had cirrhosis (2.9%). Risk factors for new cirrhosis diagnoses were obesity and/or Type 2 diabetes in 16 patients (59.3%), alcohol alone in 3 (11.1%) and both alcohol and obesity and/or diabetes in eight (29.6%). Presence of cirrhosis was significantly increased in obese patients with Type 2 diabetes or hazardous alcohol use compared to non-obese (odds ratio 9.4 [95% CI 2.2-40.9] and 5.6 [95% CI 1.6-19.7] respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The number of new cases of cirrhosis diagnosed clearly demonstrates that existing estimates of prevalence are likely to be gross underestimates. Obesity was an important risk factor for cirrhosis within both alcohol users and diabetics.

Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma among individuals with different aetiologies of cirrhosis: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Among patients with cirrhosis, only those determined to be at risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) should undergo surveillance. However, little is known about how different aetiologies of cirrhosis affect risk for HCC. AIM: To quantify the cumulative incidence of HCC among a representative population of people with cirrhosis of the liver of varying aetiology. METHODS: We identified subjects with hepatic cirrhosis from the UK's General Practice Research Database (1987-2006). Diagnoses of HCC were obtained from linked national cancer registries (1971-2006). Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios. The predicted 10-year cumulative incidence of HCC for each aetiology of cirrhosis was estimated while accounting for competing risks of death from any cause and liver transplant. RESULTS: Among 3107 people with cirrhosis, the adjusted relative risk of HCC was increased twofold to threefold among people with viral and autoimmune/metabolic aetiologies, compared to those with alcohol-associated cirrhosis. The 10-year predicted cumulative incidence estimates of HCC for each aetiology were alcohol, 1.2%; chronic viral hepatitis, 4.0%; autoimmune or metabolic disease, 3.2%; and cryptogenic, 1.1%. CONCLUSIONS: In a population-based study in the UK, people with cirrhosis have an estimated cumulative 10-year incidence of HCC of 4% or lower. Cumulative incidence varies with aetiology such that individuals with alcohol or cryptogenic cirrhosis have the lowest risk for HCC. These findings provide important information for cost-effectiveness analyses of HCC surveillance.

Do colorectal cancer patients diagnosed as an emergency differ from non-emergency patients in their consultation patterns and symptoms? A longitudinal data-linkage study in England.

BACKGROUND: More than 20% of colorectal cancers are diagnosed following an emergency presentation. We aimed to examine pre-diagnostic primary-care consultations and related symptoms comparing patients diagnosed as emergencies with those diagnosed through non-emergency routes. METHODS: Cohort study of colorectal cancers diagnosed in England 2005 and 2006 using cancer registration data individually linked to primary-care data (CPRD/GPRD), allowing a detailed analysis of clinical information referring to the 5-year pre-diagnostic period. RESULTS: Emergency diagnosis occurred in 35% and 15% of the 1029 colon and 577 rectal cancers. 'Background' primary-care consultations (2-5 years before diagnosis) were similar for either group. In the year before diagnosis, >95% of emergency and non-emergency presenters had consulted their doctor, but emergency presenters had less frequently relevant symptoms (colon cancer: 48% vs 71% (P<0.001); rectal cancer: 49% vs 61% (P=0.043)). 'Alarm' symptoms were recorded less frequently in emergency presenters (e.g., rectal bleeding: 9 vs 24% (P=0.002)). However, about 1/5 of emergency presenters (18 and 23% for colon and rectal cancers) had 'alarm' symptoms the year before diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Emergency presenters have similar 'background' consultation history as non-emergency presenters. Their tumours seem associated with less typical symptoms, however opportunities for earlier diagnosis might be present in a fifth of them.

Decreased fertility rates in 9639 women diagnosed with inflammatory bowel disease: a United Kingdom population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical studies have reported reduced fertility in women with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). AIM: To compare fertility rates in women with IBD to those in women without IBD and assess whether the relative fertility differed following IBD diagnosis, flares and surgery. METHODS: Women aged 15-44 years in 1990-2010 were identified from a UK primary care database. We estimated overall and age-specific fertility rates by 5-year age bands for women with and without IBD. We used Poisson regression to calculate adjusted fertility rate ratios (AFRR), adjusted for age, smoking and socioeconomic deprivation. RESULTS: There were 46.2 live births per 1000 person-years [95% confidence interval (95% CI); 44.6-47.9] in 9639 women with IBD and 49.3 (95% CI 49.2-49.5) in 2 131 864 without (AFRR: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.89-0.96). Excluding periods of contraception use, the AFRR was 0.99 (95% CI: 0.95-1.03). Before diagnosis, the AFRR for women with ulcerative colitis (UC) was 1.07 (95% CI: 0.99-1.16) and was 0.88 (95% CI: 0.81-0.97) for women with CD. After diagnosis, AFRRs were 0.87 (95% CI: 0.82-0.94) for CD and 0.92 (95% CI: 0.86-1.00) for UC. The fertility rate was lower following flares (AFRR: 0.70; 95% CI: 0.59-0.82) or surgery (AFRR: 0.84; 95% CI: 0.77-0.92). Women with pouch and non-pouch surgery had similar overall fertility though the reduction after surgery was greater for pouches (AFRR: 0.48; 95% CI: 0.23-0.99). CONCLUSIONS: Women with Crohn's disease have marginally lower fertility rates. These rates decreased following flares and surgical interventions. Fertility rates returned almost to normal when women were not prescribed contraception but the reduction following surgical intervention remained. As the lifetime effect of pouch vs. nonpouch surgery on fertility is small, the reduction post-pouch surgery should be interpreted with caution.

A comparison of the recording of comorbidity in primary and secondary care by using the Charlson Index to predict short-term and long-term survival in a routine linked data cohort.

OBJECTIVE: Hospital admission records provide snapshots of clinical histories for a subset of the population admitted to hospital. In contrast, primary care records provide continuous clinical histories for complete populations, but might lack detail about inpatient stays. Therefore, combining primary and secondary care records should improve the ability of comorbidity scores to predict survival in population-based studies, and provide better adjustment for case-mix differences when assessing mortality outcomes. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING: English primary and secondary care 1 January 2005 to 1 January 2010. PARTICIPANTS: All patients 20 years and older registered to a primary care practice contributing to the linked Clinical Practice Research Datalink from England. OUTCOME: The performance of the Charlson index with mortality was compared when derived from either primary or secondary care data or both. This was assessed in relation to short-term and long-term survival, age, consultation rate, and specific acute and chronic diseases. RESULTS: 657,264 people were followed up from 1 January 2005. Although primary care recorded more comorbidity than secondary care, the resulting C statistics for the Charlson index remained similar: 0.86 and 0.87, respectively. Higher consultation rates and restricted age bands reduced the performance of the Charlson index, but the index's excellent performance persisted over longer follow-up; the C statistic was 0.87 over 1 year, and 0.85 over all 5 years of follow-up. The Charlson index derived from secondary care comorbidity had a greater effect than primary care comorbidity in reducing the association of upper gastrointestinal bleeding with mortality. However, they had a similar effect in reducing the association of diabetes with mortality. CONCLUSIONS: These findings support the use of the Charlson index from linked data and show that secondary care comorbidity coding performed at least as well as that derived from primary care in predicting survival.

Review article: the economic impact of the irritable bowel syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) is a chronic functional disorder of the gastrointestinal system affecting a large number of people worldwide. Whilst it has no attributable mortality, it has substantial impact on patients' quality of life (QoL) and is associated with considerable healthcare resource use. AIM: To review the economic impact of IBS, firstly on the individual, secondly on healthcare systems internationally and thirdly to society. METHODS: Appropriate databases were searched for relevant papers using the terms: Irritable Bowel Syndrome; IBS; irritable colon; functional bowel/colonic disease; economics; health care/service costs; health expenditure/resources; health care/service utilisation; productivity. RESULTS: Irritable bowel syndrome impacts most substantially on patients' work and social life. Reduction in QoL is such that on average patients would sacrifice between 10 and 15 years of their remaining life expectancy for an immediate cure. Between 15% and 43% of patients pay for remedies. No studies quantify loss of earnings related to IBS. Direct care costs are substantial; 48% of patients incur some costs in any year with annual international estimates per patient of: USA $742-$7547, UK £90-£316, France €567-€862, Canada $259, Germany €791, Norway NOK 2098 (€262) and Iran $92. Minimising extensive diagnostic investigations could generate savings and has been shown as not detrimental to patients. Cost to industry internationally through absenteeism and presenteeism related to IBS is estimated between £400 and £900 per patient annually. CONCLUSIONS: Irritable bowel syndrome is associated with substantial costs to patients, healthcare systems and society. Considerable benefit could be obtained from effective interventions.

Variation in the risk of venous thromboembolism in people with colorectal cancer: a population-based cohort study from England.

BACKGROUND: Patients with colorectal cancer are at high risk of developing venous thromboembolism(VTE), and recent international guidelines have advised extended prophylaxis for some of these patients following surgery or during chemotherapy. However, our understanding of which patients are at increased risk, and to what extent, is limited. OBJECTIVES: To determine absolute and relative rates of VTE among patients with colorectal cancer according to Dukes stage, surgical intervention,and chemotherapy. METHODS: We analyzed data from four linked databases from 1997 to 2006: the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, linked to Hospital Episode Statistics, Cancer Registry data, and Office for National Statistics cause of death data, all from England. Rates were compared by the use of Cox regression. RESULTS: There were 10 309 patients with colorectal cancer, and 555 developed VTE (5.4%). The incidence varied by Dukes stage, being three-fold higher among Dukes D patients than among Dukes A patients (hazard ratio [HR] 3.08, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.95­4.84), and 40% higher for those receiving chemotherapy than for those not receiving chemotherapy(HR 1.39, 95% CI 1.14­1.69). The risk following surgery varied by stage of disease and chemotherapy, with Dukes A patients having a low incidence of VTE (0.74%; 95% CI 0.28­1.95) at 6 months,with all events occurring within 28 days of surgery, as compared with Dukes B and Dukes C patients, whose risk at 6 months was ~ 2%. CONCLUSION: Twenty-eight days of prophylaxis following surgery for colorectal cancer is appropriate for Dukes A patients. However, Dukes B and Dukes C patients receiving postoperative chemotherapy have a longer duration of risk.

Aspirin and other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug use and colorectal cancer survival: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Aspirin has been widely reported to reduce the incidence of colorectal cancer. Recently, a survival benefit after diagnosis has also been suggested. Data regarding such a benefit are to date contradictory. This study examines the effect of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) use on mortality in colorectal cancer in a larger patient cohort than previously to further clarify this effect, especially in terms of exposure timing and dosing. METHODS: A study using the General Practice Research Database assessed whether aspirin or NSAID exposure in the year immediately following diagnosis affected all-cause mortality in a cohort of 13 994 colorectal cancer patients. Cox proportional hazards modelling adjusted for age, gender, smoking, body mass index and comorbidity. RESULTS: Overall mortality was slightly lower in patients treated with aspirin, (hazard ratio (HR)=0.91; 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.82-1.00). This effect was observed only in patients treated with prophylaxis-dose aspirin (HR=0.89, CI=0.80-0.98) and only in patients taking aspirin before diagnosis (HR=0.86, CI=0.76-0.98). Differential effects were observed depending on the time after diagnosis. Up to 5 years, a reduction in mortality was observed for aspirin users (HR=0.83, CI=0.75-0.92), whereas after 10 years there was an increase in mortality (HR=1.94, CI=1.26-2.99). For NSAID use, no significant effect was observed on overall mortality (HR=1.07, CI=0.98-1.15). High-dose NSAID use was associated with a slight increase in mortality (HR=1.41, CI=1.26-1.56). INTERPRETATION: These findings provide further indication that aspirin may be beneficial in reducing mortality in colorectal cancer during the first 5 years. The same cannot be said for other NSAIDs, where a small increase in mortality was observed.

The long-term risk of malignancy following a diagnosis of coeliac disease or dermatitis herpetiformis: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: People with coeliac disease are known to be at increased risk of malignancy; however, long-term risks of malignancy beyond 10-15 years are largely unstudied. AIM: To estimate how long an increased risk of malignancy among coeliac disease patients persists following diagnosis and treatment, using data from a cohort with an average follow-up of 25 years. METHODS: People with coeliac disease diagnosed in the Lothian region of Scotland, United Kingdom, were followed up from January 1970 or the date of coeliac disease diagnosis (whichever was later) until the first occurrence of death, emigration, cancer diagnosis or the end of 2004. Standardised incidence ratios were calculated to compare the cancer incidence rates among this group with those from the population of Scotland. RESULTS: Overall, the risk of any malignancy in coeliac disease patients compared with the general population was increased 40% [standardised incidence ratio (SIR) = 1.41; 95% CI 1.09-1.78]. An increased risk for cancer overall persisted for up to 15 years, beyond which no overall increase in malignancy risk was observed, although the risk of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma remained raised beyond 15 years (SIR = 5.15; 95% CI 1.40-13.2). In total, there were 14 non-Hodgkin's lymphomas in the cohort, providing an overall incidence of 1.3 per 1000 person-years. CONCLUSIONS: The overall risk of malignancy in coeliac patients declines with time after diagnosis and is not significantly increased after 15 years. Most of the increased risk can be attributed to the development of haematological malignancies, despite their very low absolute rate of occurrence.

Tricyclic antidepressants and the incidence of certain cancers: a study using the GPRD.

BACKGROUND: Several studies suggest links between cancer and tricyclic antidepressant use. METHODS: A case-control study using the General Practice Research Database examined whether previous tricyclic usage was associated with reduced incidence of brain (with glioma as a sub-category), breast, colorectal, lung and prostate cancers. Conditional logistic regression adjusted for age, gender, general practice, depression, smoking, body mass index, alcohol use and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug use. RESULTS: A total of 31 953 cancers were identified, each matched with up to two controls. We found a statistically significant reduction in tricyclic prescriptions compared with controls in glioma (odds ratio (OR) =0.59, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.42-0.81) and colorectal cancer patients (OR=0.84, CI=0.75-0.94). These effects were dose-dependent (P-values for trend, glioma=0.0005, colorectal=0.001) and time-dependant (P-values for trend glioma=0.0005, colorectal=0.0086). The effects were cancer-type specific, with lung, breast and prostate cancers largely unaffected by antidepressant use. CONCLUSION: The biologically plausible, specific and dose- and time-dependant inverse association that we have found suggests that tricyclics may have potential for prevention of both colorectal cancer and glioma.

The rate of decompensation and clinical progression of disease in people with cirrhosis: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: We lack population-based estimates of the rate of decompensation in people with compensated cirrhosis as well as estimates of the manner in which the disease progresses once identified. AIM: To determine the rate of decompensation and clinical progression of disease in patients with cirrhosis based upon clinical symptoms recorded electronically in general practice data. METHODS: Using Cox proportional hazards regression, we modelled the rate of decompensation for patients from the UK General Practice Research Database with a diagnosis of cirrhosis between 1987 and 2002. We determined the clinical progression in the first year following diagnosis and subsequently categorizing patients through time according to a simple clinical staging system agreed at the Baveno IV consensus conference. RESULTS: The rate of decompensation in patients with compensated cirrhosis was found to be 11% overall. The rate of decompensation was higher in the first year (at 31% compared with 7.3% afterwards) and in patients with an alcoholic aetiology. Patients with compensated cirrhosis had a 1-year probability of proceeding directly to death of 7% compared with 20% in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. CONCLUSIONS: Using data recorded in general practice records, it is possible to determine the rate of decompensation and the clinical progression of disease in people with cirrhosis.

Outcomes following early red blood cell transfusion in acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

BACKGROUND: Acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB) accounts for 14% of RBC units transfused in the UK. In exsanguinating AUGIB the value of RBC transfusion is self evident, but in less severe bleeding its value is less obvious. AIM: To examine the relationship between early RBC transfusion, re-bleeding and mortality following AUGIB, which is one of the most common indications for red blood cell (RBC) transfusion. METHOD: Data were collected on 4441 AUGIB patients presenting to UK hospitals. The relationship between early RBC transfusion, re-bleeding and death was examined using logistic regression. RESULTS: 44% were transfused RBCs within 12 hours of admission. In patients transfused with an initial haemoglobin of <8 g/dl, re-bleeding occurred in 23% and mortality was 13% compared with a re-bleeding rate of 15%, and mortality of 13% in those not transfused. In patients transfused with haemoglobin >8 g/dl, re-bleeding occurred in 24% and mortality was 11% compared with a re-bleeding rate of 6.7%, and mortality of 4.3% in those not transfused. After adjusting for Rockall score and initial haemoglobin, early transfusion was associated with a two-fold increased risk of re-bleeding (Odds ratio 2.26, 95% CI 1.76-2.90) and a 28% increase in mortality (Odds ratio 1.28, 95% CI 0.94-1.74). CONCLUSIONS: Early RBC transfusion in AUGIB was associated with a two-fold increased risk of re-bleeding and an increase in mortality, although the latter was not statistically significant. Although these findings could be due to residual confounding, they indicate that a randomized comparison of restrictive and liberal transfusion policies in AUGIB is urgently required.

The antecedents of biliary cancer: a primary care case-control study in the United Kingdom.

In a case-control study using a large UK primary care database, we found that non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs had no protective effect against biliary carcinomas (cholangiocarcinoma and gall bladder cancer). Increased risks were observed for cigarette smoking, diabetes, gallstone disease and obesity.

The epidemiology of haemochromatosis: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: The discovery of the HFE genotype has revolutionized the diagnosis of haemochromatosis, changing the associated mortality and morbidity. AIM: To investigate the clinical significance of a diagnosis of haemochromatosis. METHODS: In a cohort study, we identified 501 people with haemochromatosis and 4950 age- and gender-matched controls from the UK General Practice Research Database between 1987 and 2002. RESULTS: The incidence of a diagnosis of haemochromatosis increased approximately 2-fold over the study period and was associated with a 2.2-fold increase in mortality [hazard ratio, 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 1.6-3.0]. There was no increase in extra hepatic malignancy, but an absolute risk excess of liver cancer of 0.89% per year. Diabetes, impotence, osteoarthritis and crystal arthritis were associated with haemochromatosis with odds ratios of 5.4 (95% CI, 4.1-7.0), 2.7(95% CI, 1.8-4.0), 1.9(95% CI, 1.5-2.4) and 2.1(95% CI, 1.4-3.1) respectively. CONCLUSION: Increasing numbers of people are being diagnosed with haemochromatosis, and the mortality associated with this disease remains high. However, people are living with considerably lower levels of morbidity than previously reported. This encouragingly suggests earlier diagnoses are being made, prior to the development of complications.