Spatio-temporal dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil: A nonlinear regression analysis.

AIMS: This study describes the spatio-temporal dynamics of new visceral leishmaniasis (VL) cases notified in Brazil between 2001 and 2020. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data on the occurrence of the disease were obtained by means of the Notifiable Diseases Information System of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. Joinpoint, temporal generalized additive models and conditional autoregressive (CAR) models were used to analyse the temporal evolution of the rates in Brazil, states and regions. Spatio-temporal generalized additive and CAR models were used to identify the distribution of annual risks of VL occurrence in the Brazilian territory in relation to variation in the spatial average. There were 63,966 VL cases in the target period (3.198 cases/year), corresponding to a mean incidence rate of 1.68 cases/100,000 inhabitants. Of these, 4451 resulted in deaths, which gives a mean mortality rate of 0.12 deaths/100,000 inhabitants and a case fatality of 6.96%. The highest incidence rate was found in the North region, followed closely by the Northeast region, which presented the second and first highest mortality rates, respectively. For all of Brazil, and in the Northeast region, there were stability in the incidence rates, while the other regions showed an increasing trend in different time segments in the period: Central-West up to 2011, North up to 2008, Southeast up to 2004, and South up to 2010. On the other hand, all regions experienced a reduction in incidence rate during the last years of the series. The Northeast region had the highest number of municipalities with statistically significant elevated relative risks. The spatio-temporal analysis showed the highest risk area predominantly in the Northeast region in the beginning of the time series. From 2002 to 2018, this area expanded to the interior of the country. CONCLUSIONS: The present study has shown that VL has expanded in Brazil. However, the North and Northeast regions continue to have the highest incidence, and the risk of infection has decreased in recent years.

Clinical-epidemiological aspects and prognostic factors associated with death from visceral leishmaniasis between the years 2010 to 2019 in the Central-West region of Brazil.

In Brazil, the fatality rate for visceral leishmaniasis is high, and it is important to investigate its associated factors. The aim of this study was to analyze the clinical-epidemiological profile and prognostic factors associated with death from visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the Central-West region of Brazil, between 2010 and 2019. A study of series of VL cases was carried out using data obtained from the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN). Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify variables associated with deaths. Male (64.96%); age group ≤5 years (28.51%); mixed race/color (59.20%); and level of education incomplete primary education (45.16%) were the most affected. The most frequent symptoms were fever (87.65%), weakness (77.56%), enlarged spleen (70.22%) and liver (67.33%), weight loss (67.22%) and pallor (63.41%). Co-infection with HIV was observed in 15.84% of patients. The parasitological diagnosis was positive in 74.17% and the Indirect Immunofluorescence (IIF) in 82.80%. The drug most used for treatment was pentavalent antimony (41.96%). Regarding the evolution of VL, cure was recorded for 82.90% of patients and death from VL in 8.30%. Factors associated with death from VL were: age group ≥20 and <60 (OR 2.95; 95% CI 1.98-4.38) and ≥60 (OR 5.84; 95% CI 3.63-9.38), edema (OR 2.27; 95% CI 1.64-3.13), pallor (OR 1.53; 95% CI 1.06-2.20), infectious condition (OR 1.56; 95% CI 1.12-2.15) and hemorrhagic phenomena (OR 2.87; 95% CI 2.02-4.08). New studies are needed in order to better manage VL control, monitoring, prevention and primary care strategies.

Temporal patterns, spatial risks, and characteristics of tegumentary leishmaniasis in Brazil in the first twenty years of the 21st Century.

BACKGROUND: Tegumentary leishmaniasis (TL) is a significant public health issue in Brazil. The present ecological study describes the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of TL cases reported in the country, and analyzes the spatial and temporal patterns of the incidences and risks of occurrence across the five geopolitical regions and 27 federative units. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Data regarding new cases of TL notified between 2001 and 2020 were obtained from the Information System for Notifiable Diseases of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. Joinpoint and spatial and temporal generalized additive models were used to establish trends in the evolution of TL during the target period. The incidence rate for the entire period was 226.41 cases/100,000 inhabitants. All regions of Brazil showed trends of decreasing incidence rates, albeit with fluctuations at specific times, with the exception of the Southeast where rates have increased since 2014, most particularly in Minas Gerais state. The disease was concentrated predominantly in the North region, with Acre state leading the incidence rank in the whole country, followed by Mato Grosso (Midwest), Maranhão and Bahia (Northeast) states. The spatial distribution of the risk of TL occurrence in relation to the annual averages was relatively stable throughout the period. The cutaneous form of TL was predominant and cases most frequently occurred in rural areas and among men of working age. The ages of individuals contracting TL tended to increase during the time series. Finally, the proportion of confirmations by laboratory tests was lower in the Northeast. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: TL shows a declining trend in Brazil, but its widespread occurrence and the presence of areas with increasing incidence rates demonstrate the persistent relevance of this disease and the need for constant monitoring. Our findings reinforce the importance of temporal and spatial tools in epidemiologic surveillance routines and are valuable for targeting preventive and control actions.

Spatio-temporal relative risks and priority areas for visceral leishmaniasis control in Brazil, between 2001 and 2020.

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a pressing public health problem in Brazil. The proper implementation of disease control programs in priority areas is a challenge for healthcare managers. The present study aimed to analyze the spatio-temporal distribution and identify high risk areas of VL occurrence in the Brazilian territory. We analyzed data regarding new cases with confirmed diagnosis of VL in Brazilian municipalities, from 2001 to 2020, extracted from the Brazilian Information System for Notifiable Diseases. The Local Index of Spatial Autocorrelation (LISA) was used to identify contiguous areas with high incidence rates in different periods of the temporal series. Clusters of high spatio-temporal relative risks were identified using the scan statistics. The accumulated incidence rate in the analyzed period was 33.53 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. The number of municipalities that reported cases showed an upward trend from 2001 onward, although there was a decrease in 2019 and 2020. According to LISA, the number of municipalities considered a priority increased in Brazil and in most states. Priority municipalities were predominantly concentrated in the states of Tocantins, Maranhão, Piauí, and Mato Grosso do Sul, in addition to more specific areas of Pará, Ceará, Piauí, Alagoas, Pernambuco, Bahia, São Paulo, Minas Gerais, and Roraima. The spatio-temporal clusters of high-risk areas varied throughout the time series and were relatively higher in the North and Northeast regions. Recent high-risk areas were found in Roraima and municipalities in northeastern states. VL expanded territorially in Brazil in the 21st century. However, there is still a considerable spatial concentration of cases. The areas identified in the present study should be prioritized for disease control actions.

Spatial and spatiotemporal patterns of human visceral leishmaniasis in an endemic southeastern area in countryside Brazil.

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has shown endemic pattern and epidemic episodes in urban and rural areas, however, there are still gaps in knowledge with regards to disease transmission. This study aimed to analyze the spatiotemporal dispersion of VL cases in the municipality of Araçuaí, Minas Gerais. A study of confirmed VL cases was conducted considering the endemic and epidemic periods between 2012 and 2017. The incidence rate was calculated, and for spatial analysis, the kernel map, directional distribution ellipse, and space-time scanning techniques were used. The correlations between VL cases and exposure variables (precipitation, humidity, and temperature) were calculated. The mean incidence of VL in the endemic period was 18.5 (95% confidence interval (CI) 5.9-32.5) and 44.4 in the epidemic period (95%CI, 12.0-28.6) by 100,000 inhabitants. The relative risk for the epidemic period was 2.4 (95% CI 1.4-4.1) when compared to the endemic period. A higher incidence of the disease was observed in rural areas of the municipality. Kernel mapping analysis revealed hotspots in the urban area of the municipality. The directional distribution ellipse encompasses the urban perimeter and part of the rural area of the municipality, expanding eastward during the epidemic period. Spatial analysis revealed a high-risk cluster for VL in rural areas. A positive correlation was observed between VL cases and temperature during the endemic period. Spatial analysis allowed us to outline the epidemiological scenario of human VL cases. These findings may be useful in case surveillance and in the work of health professionals and managers in Brazil.

Responsible companion animal guardianship is associated with canine visceral leishmaniasis: an analytical cross-sectional survey in an urban area of southeastern Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Responsible companion animal guardianship (RCAG) comprises a set of concepts involving activities, behavior and care that guardians must provide to ensure the welfare of their animals. When such principles are disregarded, the risk of animals developing zoonotic diseases, such as canine visceral leishmaniasis (CVL), increases. This disease is a public health problem in many urban settings in Brazil because dogs are the main reservoirs of Leishmania and are involved in the transmission of the parasites to humans. Our analytical cross-sectional epidemiological survey aimed to investigate the prevalence of CVL in a city in southeastern Brazil and to establish the association between the disease and a number of predictor variables including dog traits, socioeconomic status of guardians, ecological features of the domicile and RCAG. RESULTS: Our study showed that the global prevalence of CVL in the sample canine population was 6.7% (47/704). All variables related to better dog care were associated with lower chances of infection. Multiple regression analysis revealed that the chances of animals being seropositive for CVL were significantly (p < 0.05) higher when guardians had no formal education or possessed a university degree (vs. those with complete primary or secondary schooling) and when dogs were sheltered outside the house and had free access to the streets. An additional novel finding was that dogs that were acquired as puppies presented half of the chance of developing the disease in comparison with those acquired at the adult stage. Geographically weighted logistic regression coefficients showed that the strengths of the predictor/CVL associations varied depending on the studied geographical space. Both models demonstrated that the associations were always in the same directions. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that regardless of age and mode of acquisition, adult dogs should be submitted to clinical evaluation and tests for CVL. RCAG can exert positive effects on the control of CVL.

Spatial and spatiotemporal patterns of human visceral leishmaniasis in an endemic southeastern area in countryside Brazil

ABSTRACT Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has shown endemic pattern and epidemic episodes in urban and rural areas, however, there are still gaps in knowledge with regards to disease transmission. This study aimed to analyze the spatiotemporal dispersion of VL cases in the municipality of Araçuaí, Minas Gerais. A study of confirmed VL cases was conducted considering the endemic and epidemic periods between 2012 and 2017. The incidence rate was calculated, and for spatial analysis, the kernel map, directional distribution ellipse, and space-time scanning techniques were used. The correlations between VL cases and exposure variables (precipitation, humidity, and temperature) were calculated. The mean incidence of VL in the endemic period was 18.5 (95% confidence interval (CI) 5.9-32.5) and 44.4 in the epidemic period (95%CI, 12.0-28.6) by 100,000 inhabitants. The relative risk for the epidemic period was 2.4 (95% CI 1.4-4.1) when compared to the endemic period. A higher incidence of the disease was observed in rural areas of the municipality. Kernel mapping analysis revealed hotspots in the urban area of the municipality. The directional distribution ellipse encompasses the urban perimeter and part of the rural area of the municipality, expanding eastward during the epidemic period. Spatial analysis revealed a high-risk cluster for VL in rural areas. A positive correlation was observed between VL cases and temperature during the endemic period. Spatial analysis allowed us to outline the epidemiological scenario of human VL cases. These findings may be useful in case surveillance and in the work of health professionals and managers in Brazil.

Previous History of American Tegumentary Leishmaniasis Alters Susceptibility and Immune Response Against Schistosoma mansoni Infection in Humans.

Schistosomiasis and Leishmaniasis are chronic parasitic diseases with high prevalence in some tropical regions and, due to their wide distribution, a risk of co-infections is present in some areas. Nevertheless, the impact of this interaction on human populations is still poorly understood. Thus, the current study evaluated the effect of previous American Tegumentary Leishmaniasis (ATL) on the susceptibility and immune response to Schistosoma mansoni infection in residents from a rural community in Northern of Minas Gerais state, Brazil, an area endemic for both parasitic infections. The participants answered a socioeconomic questionnaire and provided stool and blood samples for parasitological and immunological evaluations. Stool samples were examined by a combination of parasitological techniques to identify helminth infections, especially S. mansoni eggs. Blood samples were used for hemograms and to measure the serum levels of cytokines and chemokines. Reports on previous ATL were obtained through interviews, clinical evaluation forms, and medical records. S. mansoni infection was the most prevalent parasitic infection in the study population (46%), and the majority of the infected individuals had a very low parasite burden. In the same population, 93 individuals (36.2%) reported previous ATL, and the prevalence of S. mansoni infection among these individuals was significantly higher than among individuals with no ATL history. A multiple logistic regression model revealed that S. mansoni infection was positively associated with higher levels of CCL3 and CCL17, and a higher frequency of IL-17 responders. Moreover, this model demonstrated that individuals with an ATL history had a 2-fold higher probability to be infected with S. mansoni (OR = 2.0; 95% CI 1.04-3.68). Among S. mansoni-infected individuals, the logistic regression demonstrated that a previous ATL history was negatively associated with the frequency of IL-17 responders and CXCL10 higher responders, but positively associated with higher IL-27 responders. Altogether, our data suggest that previous ATL may alter the susceptibility and the immune response in S. mansoni-infected individuals, which may likely affect the outcome of schistosomiasis and the severity of the disease in humans.

Spatiotemporal dynamics and risk estimates of COVID-19 epidemic in Minas Gerais State: analysis of an expanding process.

COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by the recently discovered coronavirus SARS-Cov-2. The disease became pandemic affecting many countries globally, including Brazil. Considering the expansion process and particularities during the initial stages of the epidemic, we aimed to analyze the spatial and spatiotemporal patterns of COVID-19 occurrence and to identify priority risk areas in Minas Gerais State, Southeast Brazil. An ecological study was performed considering all data from human cases of COVID-19 confirmed from the epidemiological week (EW) 11 (March 08, 2020) to EW 26 (June 27, 2020). Crude and smoothed incidence rates were used to analyze the distribution of disease patterns based on global and local indicators of spatial association and space-time risk assessment. Positive spatial autocorrelation and spatial dependence were found. Our results suggest that the metropolitan region of the State capital Belo Horizonte (MRBH) and Vale do Rio Doce mesoregions, as major epidemic foci in the beginning of the expansion process, have had important influence on the dispersion of SARS-CoV-2 in Minas Gerais State. Triangulo Mineiro/Alto Paranaiba region presented the highest risk of infection. In addition, six statistically significant spatiotemporal clusters were identified in the State, three at high risk and three at low risk. Our findings contribute to a greater understanding of the space-time disease dynamic and discuss strategies for identification of priority areas for COVID-19 surveillance and control.

Factors associated with human visceral leishmaniasis cases during urban epidemics in Brazil: a systematic review.

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is endemic in 70 countries and has been reported in 12 countries of Latin America, with over 90% of the cases reported in Brazil, where epidemics have occurred since 1980. The objective of this review is to describe the factors associated with the occurrence of VL epidemics in humans in urban areas. A systematic review was conducted according to the PRISMA-P guidelines. The databases PubMed (by Medline), Cochrane Library, Embase, Amed, LILACS and grey literature [Google Scholar and handsearch of the database of the Information System for Notifiable Diseases (SINAN) of Brazil's Unified Health System] were used. The protocol was registered under PROSPERO (CRD42019128998). Climatic, environmental factors and indicators of urban social structure were described as influencing the outbreaks in the North and Northeast regions. Gender and age characteristics were related to a greater chance of developing VL in the Central-West, Northeast and Southeast regions. Vector indicators showed a positive correlation with the incidence of VL in studies in the Northeast region. In the Southeast and Northeast regions, studies revealed the presence of dogs with positive correlation with VL. Knowledge gaps remain regarding the contribution to the increase in the risk factors described in ecological approaches, as no analysis was performed at the individual level, and it is still necessary to discuss the influence of other associated elements in epidemic episodes in the spread of VL.

Spatiotemporal patterns and integrated approach to prioritize areas for surveillance and control of visceral leishmaniasis in a large metropolitan area in Brazil.

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected disease with worldwide distribution. Brazil is the country with the largest number of cases in the Americas, and the state of Minas Gerais presents a high VL-related burden and a high case fatality rate. We aimed to analyse the spatial and spatiotemporal patterns of VL occurrence and to identify priority risk areas for surveillance and control in the metropolitan region of Belo Horizonte-MG, the third largest metropolitan area in Brazil. An ecological study was conducted considering all cases of VL in humans confirmed from 2006 to 2017. The crude and smoothed incidence rates were used to analyse the distribution patterns of the disease (dispersed, random, or clustered) based on global and local indicators of spatial association and space-time risk assessment. Positive spatial autocorrelation and spatial dependence were found between incidence rates. It was possible to observe a high concentration of VL cases in the metropolitan core area, with the identification of two high-risk clusters in strictly urban areas, showing an urban association with the disease. Ten municipalities were categorised as high risk for VL occurrence. Our results provide evidence for making decisions in surveillance programs, suggesting the prioritisation of the municipalities with more risk of transmission.

Effects of Gender, Sterilization, and Environment on the Spatial Distribution of Free-Roaming Dogs: An Intervention Study in an Urban Setting.

Information concerning the factors affecting the circulation and distribution of free-roaming dogs is crucial in developing control actions and limiting the spread of zoonoses. The present study analyzes the influence of gender, sterilization, and environment on the spatial distribution of free-roaming dogs in urban settings. Animals were captured/recaptured in seven consecutive morning sampling efforts conducted at 2-monthly intervals in control and intervention areas in a medium-size town in southeastern Brazil. Capture locations were georeferenced and captured animals were microchipped before being released at their original capture sites. Dogs captured in the intervention area were subjected additionally to surgical sterilization prior to release. Home range (HR) areas were calculated by applying the minimum convex polygon method to dogs that had been captured at least three times. Land coverage zones were determined from satellite images and overlaid on maps of the study areas along with the locations of 22 commercial food outlets. HR areas showed a global mean of 448 m2 and a median of 28 m2, values that were smaller than those reported previously for dogs in rural regions. The median HR of females (64.m2) was higher than that of males (15 m2), while median HRs of animals in the control and intervention areas were similar (27 and 28.5 m2, respectively). Variability of HR was high, although animals with small HRs predominated. Free-roaming dogs grouped primarily in urbanized and transitional regions, and their spatial distribution was positively correlated with locations of commercial food outlets. While sterilization did not influence HR size, the search for food was a key factor in determining mobility and spatial aggregation of free-roaming dogs. Our findings are pertinent in understanding the ecology of free-roaming dogs in urban environments and will be applicable to strategies aimed at promoting animal welfare and preventing the dissemination of zoonoses.

Spatial and Seasonal Distribution of Holochilus sciureus with Schistosoma mansoni Infection in an Endemic Area for Schistosomiasis in Brazil.

INTRODUCTION: The occurrence of wild rodents in the Schistosoma mansoni life cycle may increase the transmission of schistosomiasis and understanding the spatial and seasonal distribution of the natural infection of these reservoirs is essential for the development of more effective control strategies. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In this study, Holochilus sciureus rodents were captured from the flooded fields of São Bento city (an endemic area for schistosomiasis in Northeast Brazil), during the dry and rainy seasons. All these sites were georeferenced and the prevalence of S. mansoni was verified by the presence of adult worms in the mesenteric branches and livers of each animal. RESULTS: It was demonstrated that almost half of the animals collected were naturally infected with S. mansoni (45.45%) and this infection was not related to the distance from urban areas. Furthermore, the temperature, precipitation, sex, and weight did not interfere with the H. sciureus infection rates. Interestingly, we found, for the first time, the natural infection of H. sciureus in another endemic city of S. mansoni in Northeast Brazil. CONCLUSIONS: Therefore, the H. sciureus rodent shows a high natural infection rate for S. mansoni in the flooded fields of São Bento, regardless of the weather station, capture distance, and biological aspects. Additionally, we have demonstrated that H. sciureus naturally parasitized with S. mansoni may inhabit a much more extensive area that is currently described in the literature.

Space-time analysis of the incidence of human visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and prevalence of canine VL in a municipality of southeastern Brazil: Identification of priority areas for surveillance and control.

Human and canine visceral leishmaniasis (HVL and CVL, respectively) represent serious public health issues in Brazil. The surveillance and control measures currently employed have had limited effect in impeding the territorial expansion of the disease and in reducing the number of cases. We have investigated the space-time distribution of HVL incidence rates and CVL prevalence in the coverage areas of the 148 primary healthcare units in Belo Horizonte (MG, Brazil) during a 6-year period in order to identify those that should be prioritized for disease control actions. Data were smoothed using the empirical Bayes method and analyzed by space-time scanning and application of univariate global Moran's I index and local indicators of spatial association (LISA) statistics to identify spatial autocorrelations. Point data of CVL were analyzed using the Kernel method. Bivariate global Moran's I and LISA techniques were employed to identify spatial correlations between HVL and CVL. Based on our results, we were able to formulate two proposals for establishing the prioritization of coverage areas, namely: (i) classification of maximum priority areas as identified by bivariate LISA for HVL and CVL, and (ii) combination of maximum priority areas with high priority areas as identified by univariate LISA for HVL. According to our proposals, 27 coverage areas in Belo Horizonte were categorized as maximum priority and a further 13 were classified as high priority. Our proposals, which are based on practical, feasible and inexpensive statistical tools, will contribute to a better understanding of VL distribution in urban settings and improving the efficiency of governmental control programs.

Identification of priority areas for surveillance of cutaneous leishmaniasis using spatial analysis approaches in Southeastern Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is an important public health problem in Brazil and in several tropical regions of the world. In the Americas, Brazil is the country with the highest number of registered cases. In Brazil, the state of Minas Gerais has the highest number of cases in the southeastern region. In the present study, we used spatial analysis in the State of Minas Gerais to identify municipalities of priority during a nine-year period (2007-2015), which might be used to guide surveillance and control measures. METHODS: An ecological study with spatial analysis of autochthonous cases of CL was performed in the state of Minas Gerais between 2007 and 2015. We calculated incidence rates, used Empirical Bayesian smoothing for each municipality, and divided the analyses into three-year intervals. In order to analyze the existence of spatial autocorrelation, and to define priority areas, Moran's Global Index and Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) were used. RESULTS: The mean incidence rate for the entire state was 6.1/100,000 inhabitants. For Minas Gerais, analysis of CL cases over time revealed a successive increase of indicated mesoregions with high priority municipalities. Eight of the designated mesoregions contained municipalities classified as high priority areas in any of the three evaluated trienniums, and four mesoregions had high priority municipalities throughout the entire investigation. CONCLUSIONS: Within the southeastern region of Brazil, Minas Gerais State stands out, with highest CL incidence rates. Using spatial analysis, we identified an increasing numbers of cases in the municipalities classified as high priority areas in different mesoregions of the state. This information might be of value to direct surveillance and control measures against CL and to understand the dynamics of the expansion of CL in Minas Gerais. Similar approaches might be used to map CL in other regions throughout Brazil, or in any other country, where national notification and control programs exist.