Scrutinizing human resources for health availability and distribution in Mozambique between 2016 and 2020: a subnational descriptive longitudinal study.

INTRODUCTION: Overall, resilient health systems build upon sufficient, qualified, well-distributed, and motivated health workers; however, this precious resource is limited in numbers to meet people's demands, particularly in LMICs. Understanding the subnational distribution of health workers from different lens is critical to ensure quality healthcare and improving health outcomes. METHODS: Using data from Health Personnel Information System, facility-level Service Availability and Readiness Assessment, and other sources, we performed a district-level longitudinal analysis to assess health workforce density and the ratio of male to female health workers between January 2016 and June 2020 across all districts in Mozambique. RESULTS: 22 011 health workers were sampled, of whom 10 405 (47.3%) were male. The average age was 35 years (SD: 9.4). Physicians (1025, 4.7%), maternal and child health nurses (4808, 21.8%), and nurses (6402, 29.1%) represented about 55% of the sample. In January 2016, the average district-level workforce density was 75.8 per 100 000 population (95% CI 65.9, 87.1), and was increasing at an annual rate of 8.0% (95% CI 6.00, 9.00) through January 2018. The annual growth rate declined to 3.0% (95% CI 2.00, 4.00) after January 2018. Two provinces, Maputo City and Maputo Province, with 268.3 (95% CI 186.10, 387.00) and 104.6 (95% CI 84.20, 130.00) health workers per 100 000 population, respectively, had the highest workforce density at baseline (2016). There were 3122 community health workers (CHW), of whom 72.8% were male, in January 2016. The average number of CHWs per 10 000 population was 1.33 (95% CI 1.11, 1.59) in 2016 and increased by 18% annually between January 2016 and January 2018. This trend reduced to 11% (95% CI 0.00, 13.00) after January 2018. The sex ratio was twice as high for all provinces in the central and northern regions relative to Maputo Province. Maputo City (OR: 0.34; 95% CI 0.32, 0.34) and Maputo Province (OR: 0.56; 95% CI 0.49, 0.65) reported the lowest sex ratio at the baseline. Encouragingly, important sex ratio improvements were observed after January 2018, particularly in the northern and central regions. CONCLUSION: Mozambique made substantial progress in health workers' availability during the study period; however, with a critical slowdown after 2018. Despite the progress, meaningful shortages and distribution disparities persist.

Maternal and Child Health Care Service Disruptions and Recovery in Mozambique After Cyclone Idai: An Uncontrolled Interrupted Time Series Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Climate change-related extreme weather events have increased in frequency and intensity, threatening people's health, particularly in places with weak health systems. In March 2019, Cyclone Idai devastated Mozambique's central region, causing infrastructure destruction, population displacement, and death. We assessed the impact of Idai on maternal and child health services and recovery in the Sofala and Manica provinces. METHODS: Using monthly district-level routine data from November 2016 to March 2020, we performed an uncontrolled interrupted time series analysis to assess changes in 10 maternal and child health indicators in all 25 districts before and after Idai. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical negative binomial model with district-level random intercepts and slopes to estimate Idai-related service disruptions and recovery. RESULTS: Of the 4.44 million people in Sofala and Manica, 1.83 (41.2%) million were affected. Buzi, Nhamatanda, and Dondo (all in Sofala province) had the highest proportion of people affected. After Idai, all 10 indicators showed an abrupt substantial decrease. First antenatal care visits per 100,000 women of reproductive age decreased by 23% (95% confidence interval [CI]=0.62, 0.96) in March and 11% (95% CI=0.75, 1.07) in April. BCG vaccinations per 1,000 children under age 5 years declined by 21% (95% CI=0.69, 0.90) and measles vaccinations decreased by 25% (95% CI=0.64, 0.87) in March and remained similar in April. Within 3 months post-cyclone, almost all districts recovered to pre-Idai levels, including Buzi, which showed a 22% and 13% relative increase in the number of first antenatal care visits and BCG, respectively. CONCLUSION: We found substantial health service disruptions immediately after Idai, with greater impact in the most affected districts. The findings suggest impressive recovery post-Idai, emphasizing the need to build resilient health systems to ensure quality health care during and after natural disasters.

Systems Analysis and Improvement Approach to optimize the pediatric and adolescent HIV Cascade (SAIA-PEDS): a pilot study.

INTRODUCTION: Children and adolescents lag behind adults in achieving UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets for HIV testing, treatment, and viral suppression. The Systems Analysis and Improvement Approach (SAIA) is a multi-component implementation strategy previously shown to improve the HIV care cascade for pregnant women and infants. SAIA merits adaptation and testing to reduce gaps in the pediatric and adolescent HIV cascade. METHODS: We adapted the SAIA strategy components to be applicable to the pediatric and adolescent HIV care cascade (SAIA-PEDS) in Nairobi and western Kenya. We tested whether this SAIA-PEDS strategy improved HIV testing, linkage to care, antiretroviral treatment (ART), viral load (VL) testing, and viral load suppression for children and adolescents ages 0-24 years at 5 facilities. We conducted a pre-post analysis with 6 months pre- and 6 months post-implementation strategy (coupled with an interrupted time series sensitivity analysis) using abstracted routine program data to determine changes attributable to SAIA-PEDS. RESULTS: Baseline levels of HIV testing and care cascade indicators were heterogeneous between facilities. Per facility, the monthly average number of children/adolescents attending outpatient and inpatient services eligible for HIV testing was 842; on average, 253 received HIV testing services, 6 tested positive, 6 were linked to care, and 5 initiated ART. Among those on treatment at the facility, an average of 15 had a VL sample taken and 13 had suppressed VL results returned. Following the SAIA-PEDS training and mentorship, there was no substantial or significant change in the ratio of HIV testing (RR: 0.803 [95% CI: 0.420, 1.532]) and linkage to care (RR: 0.831 [95% CI: 0.546, 1.266]). The ratio of ART initiation increased substantially and trended towards significance (RR: 1.412 [95% CI: 0.999, 1.996]). There were significant and substantial improvements in the ratio of VL tests ordered (RR: 1.939 [95% CI: 1.230, 3.055]) but no substantial or significant change in the ratio of VL results suppressed (RR: 0.851 [95% CI: 0.554, 1.306]). CONCLUSIONS: The piloted SAIA-PEDS implementation strategy was associated with increases in health system performance for indicators later in the HIV care cascade, but not for HIV testing and treatment indicators. This strategy merits further rigorous testing for effectiveness and sustainment.

Cumulative Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection Incidence (Measured Primarily by Tuberculin Skin Test) Among Infants With Human Immunodeficiency Virus Exposure: Observational Follow-up of an Isoniazid Prophylaxis Trial.

Cumulative 24-month Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection incidence (measured primarily by tuberculin skin test [TST]) was high among human immunodeficiency virus exposed but uninfected infants (8.7 [95% confidence interval, 6.3-11.9] per 100 person-years). Trend for decreased TST positivity among infants at trial end (12 months postenrollment) randomized to isoniazid at 6 weeks of age was not sustained through observational follow-up to 24 months of age. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT02613169.

COVID-19-related healthcare impacts: an uncontrolled, segmented time-series analysis of tuberculosis diagnosis services in Mozambique, 2017-2020.

INTRODUCTION: Currently, COVID-19 dominates the public health agenda and poses a permanent threat, leading to health systems' exhaustion and unprecedented service disruption. Primary healthcare services, including tuberculosis services, are at increased risk of facing severe disruptions, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. Indeed, corroborating model-based forecasts, there is increasing evidence of the COVID-19 pandemic's negative impact on tuberculosis case detection. METHODS: Applying a segmented time-series analysis, we assessed the effects of COVID-19-related measures on tuberculosis diagnosis service across districts in Mozambique. Ministry health information system data were used from the first quarter of 2017 to the end of 2020. The model, performed under the Bayesian premises, was estimated as a negative binomial with random effects for districts and provinces. RESULTS: A total of 154 districts were followed for 16 consecutive quarters. Together, these districts reported 96 182 cases of all forms of tuberculosis in 2020. At baseline (first quarter of 2017), Mozambique had an estimated incidence rate of 283 (95% CI 200 to 406) tuberculosis cases per 100 000 people and this increased at a 5% annual rate through the end of 2019. We estimated that 17 147 new tuberculosis cases were potentially missed 9 months after COVID-19 onset, resulting in a 15.1% (95% CI 5.9 to 24.0) relative loss in 2020. The greatest impact was observed in the southern region at 40.0% (95% CI 30.1 to 49.0) and among men at 15% (95% CI 4.0 to 25.0). The incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis increased at an average rate of 6.6% annually; however, an abrupt drop (15%) was also observed immediately after COVID-19 onset in March 2020. CONCLUSION: The most significant impact of the state of emergency was observed between April and June 2020, the quarter after COVID-19 onset. Encouragingly, by the end of 2020, clear signs of health system recovery were visible despite the initial shock.