Rapid Evolution of SARS-CoV-2 Challenges Human Defenses

Evolutionary ecology theory provides an avenue to anticipate the future behavior of SARS-CoV-2. Here we quantify the accelerating evolution of SARS-CoV-2 by tracking the SARS-CoV-2 mutation globally, with a focus on the Receptor Binding Domain (RBD) of the spike protein believed to determine infectivity. We estimate that 384 million people were infected by March 1st, 2021, producing up to 1021 copies of the virus, with one new RBD variant appearing for every 600,000 human infections, resulting in approximately three new effective RBD variants produced daily. Doubling the number of RBD variants every 71.67 days followed by selection of the most infective variants challenges our defenses and calls for a shift to anticipatory, rather than reactive tactics. One-Sentence SummaryAccelerating evolution of SARS-CoV-2 demands formulating universal vaccines and treatments based on big-data simulations of possible new variants.

Estimating and forecasting COVID-19 attack rates and mortality

We describe a model for estimating past and current infections as well as future deaths due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The model does not use confirmed case numbers and is based instead on recorded numbers of deaths and on the age-specific population distribution. A regularized deconvolution technique is used to infer past infections from recorded deaths. Forecasting is based on a compartmental SIR-type model, combined with a probability distribution for the time from infection to death. The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) is modelled empirically, based on recent trends in the death rate. The model can also be used to study counterfactual scenarios based on hypothetical NPI policies.

Functional pangenome analysis provides insights into the origin, function and pathways to therapy of SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus

The spread of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has triggered a global emergency, that demands urgent solutions for detection and therapy to prevent escalating health, social and economic impacts. The spike protein (S) of this virus enables binding to the human receptor ACE2, and hence presents a prime target for vaccines preventing viral entry into host cells1. The S proteins from SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 are similar2, but structural differences in the receptor binding domain (RBD) preclude the use of SARS-CoV-1-specific neutralizing antibodies to inhibit SARS-CoV-23. Here we used comparative pangenomic analysis of all sequenced Betacoronaviruses to reveal that, among all core gene clusters present in these viruses, the envelope protein E shows a variant shared by SARS and SARS-Cov2 with two completely-conserved key functional features, an ion-channel and a PDZ-binding Motif (PBM). These features trigger a cytokine storm that activates the inflammasome, leading to increased edema in lungs causing the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS)4-6, the leading cause of death in SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 infection7,8. However, three drugs approved for human use may inhibit SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 Protein E, either acting upon the ion channel (Amantadine and Hexamethylene amiloride9,10) or the PBM (SB2035805), thereby potentially increasing the survival of the host, as already demonstrated for SARS-CoV-1in animal models. Hence, blocking the SARS protein E inhibits development of ARDS in vivo. Given that our results demonstrate that the protein E subcluster for the SARS clade is quasi-identical for the key functional regions of SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2, we conclude that use of approved drugs shown to act as SARS E protein inhibitors can help prevent further casualties from COVID-2019 while vaccines and other preventive measures are being developed.