A systematic review and meta-analysis of patient data from the West Africa (2013-16) Ebola virus disease epidemic.

BACKGROUND: Over 28 000 individuals were infected with Ebola virus during the West Africa (2013-2016) epidemic, yet there has been criticism of the lack of robust clinical descriptions of Ebola virus disease (EVD) illness from that outbreak. OBJECTIVES: To perform a meta-analysis of published data from the epidemic to describe the clinical presentation, evolution of disease, and predictors of mortality in individuals with EVD. To assess the quality and utility of published data for clinical and public health decision-making. DATA SOURCES: Primary articles available in PubMed and published between January 2014 and May 2017. ELIGIBILITY: Studies that sequentially enrolled individuals hospitalized for EVD and that reported acute clinical outcomes. METHODS: We performed meta-analyses using random-effect models and assessed heterogeneity using the I2 method. We assessed data representativeness by comparing meta-analysis estimates with WHO aggregate data. We examined data utility by examining the availability and compatibility of data sets. RESULTS: In all, 3653 articles were screened and 34 articles were included, representing 16 independent cohorts of patients (18 overlapping cohorts) and at least 6168 individuals. The pooled estimate for case fatality rate was 51% (95% CI 46%-56%). However, pooling of estimates for clinical presentation, progression, and predictors of mortality in individuals with EVD were hampered by significant heterogeneity, and inadequate data on clinical progression. Our assessment of data quality found that heterogeneity was largely unexplained, and data availability and compatibility were poor. CONCLUSIONS: We have quantified a missed opportunity to generate reliable estimates of the clinical manifestations of EVD during the West Africa epidemic. Clinical data standards and data capture platforms are urgently needed.

Paediatric non-progression following grandmother-to-child HIV transmission.

BACKGROUND: In contrast to adult HIV infection, where slow disease progression is strongly linked to immune control of HIV mediated by protective HLA class I molecules such as HLA-B*81:01, the mechanisms by which a minority of HIV-infected children maintain normal-for-age CD4 counts and remain clinically healthy appear to be HLA class I-independent and are largely unknown. To better understand these mechanisms, we here studied a HIV-infected South African female, who remained a non-progressor throughout childhood. RESULTS: Phylogenetic analysis of viral sequences in the HIV-infected family members, together with the history of grand-maternal breast-feeding, indicated that, unusually, the non-progressor child had been infected via grandmother-to-child transmission. Although HLA-B*81:01 was expressed by both grandmother and grand-daughter, autologous virus in each subject encoded an escape mutation L188F within the immunodominant HLA-B*81:01-restricted Gag-specific epitope TL9 (TPQDLNTML, Gag 180-188). Since the transmitted virus can influence paediatric and adult HIV disease progression, we investigated the impact of the L188F mutant on replicative capacity. When this variant was introduced into three distinct HIV clones in vitro, viral replicative capacity was abrogated altogether. However, a virus constructed using the gag sequence of the non-progressor child replicated as efficiently as wildtype virus. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest alternative sequences of events: the transmission of the uncompensated low fitness L188F to both children, potentially contributing to slow progression in both, consistent with previous studies indicating that disease progression in children can be influenced by the replicative capacity of the transmitted virus; or the transmission of fully compensated virus, and slow progression here principally the result of HLA-independent host-specific factors, yet to be defined.