Decoding collective communications using information theory tools.

Organisms have evolved sensory mechanisms to extract pertinent information from their environment, enabling them to assess their situation and act accordingly. For social organisms travelling in groups, like the fish in a school or the birds in a flock, sharing information can further improve their situational awareness and reaction times. Data on the benefits and costs of social coordination, however, have largely allowed our understanding of why collective behaviours have evolved to outpace our mechanistic knowledge of how they arise. Recent studies have begun to correct this imbalance through fine-scale analyses of group movement data. One approach that has received renewed attention is the use of information theoretic (IT) tools like mutual information, transfer entropy and causation entropy, which can help identify causal interactions in the type of complex, dynamical patterns often on display when organisms act collectively. Yet, there is a communications gap between studies focused on the ecological constraints and solutions of collective action with those demonstrating the promise of IT tools in this arena. We attempt to bridge this divide through a series of ecologically motivated examples designed to illustrate the benefits and challenges of using IT tools to extract deeper insights into the interaction patterns governing group-level dynamics. We summarize some of the approaches taken thus far to circumvent existing challenges in this area and we conclude with an optimistic, yet cautionary perspective.

Stick-slip instabilities in sheared granular flow: The role of friction and acoustic vibrations.

We propose a theory of shear flow in dense granular materials. A key ingredient of the theory is an effective temperature that determines how the material responds to external driving forces such as shear stresses and vibrations. We show that, within our model, friction between grains produces stick-slip behavior at intermediate shear rates, even if the material is rate strengthening at larger rates. In addition, externally generated acoustic vibrations alter the stick-slip amplitude, or suppress stick-slip altogether, depending on the pressure and shear rate. We construct a phase diagram that indicates the parameter regimes for which stick-slip occurs in the presence and absence of acoustic vibrations of a fixed amplitude and frequency. These results connect the microscopic physics to macroscopic dynamics and thus produce useful information about a variety of granular phenomena, including rupture and slip along earthquake faults, the remote triggering of instabilities, and the control of friction in material processing.

Shear flow of angular grains: acoustic effects and nonmonotonic rate dependence of volume.

Naturally occurring granular materials often consist of angular particles whose shape and frictional characteristics may have important implications on macroscopic flow rheology. In this paper, we provide a theoretical account for the peculiar phenomenon of autoacoustic compaction-nonmonotonic variation of shear band volume with shear rate in angular particles-recently observed in experiments. Our approach is based on the notion that the volume of a granular material is determined by an effective-disorder temperature known as the compactivity. Noise sources in a driven granular material couple its various degrees of freedom and the environment, causing the flow of entropy between them. The grain-scale dynamics is described by the shear-transformation-zone theory of granular flow, which accounts for irreversible plastic deformation in terms of localized flow defects whose density is governed by the state of configurational disorder. To model the effects of grain shape and frictional characteristics, we propose an Ising-like internal variable to account for nearest-neighbor grain interlocking and geometric frustration and interpret the effect of friction as an acoustic noise strength. We show quantitative agreement between experimental measurements and theoretical predictions and propose additional experiments that provide stringent tests on the new theoretical elements.

Differential escape patterns within the dominant HLA-B*57:03-restricted HIV Gag epitope reflect distinct clade-specific functional constraints.

UNLABELLED: HLA-B*57:01 and HLA-B*57:03, the most prevalent HLA-B*57 subtypes in Caucasian and African populations, respectively, are the HLA alleles most protective against HIV disease progression. Understanding the mechanisms underlying this immune control is of critical importance, yet they remain unclear. Unexplained differences are observed in the impact of the dominant cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) response restricted by HLA-B*57:01 and HLA-B*57:03 in chronic infection on the Gag epitope KAFSPEVIPMF (KF11; Gag 162 to 172). We previously showed that the HLA-B*57:03-KF11 response is associated with a >1-log-lower viral setpoint in C clade virus infection and that this response selects escape mutants within the epitope. We first examined the relationship of KF11 responses in B clade virus-infected subjects with HLA-B*57:01 to immune control and observed that a detectable KF11 response was associated with a >1-log-higher viral load (P = 0.02). No evidence of HLA-B*57:01-KF11-associated selection pressure was identified in previous comprehensive analyses of >1,800 B clade virus-infected subjects. We then studied a B clade virus-infected cohort in Barbados, where HLA-B*57:03 is highly prevalent. In contrast to findings for B clade virus-infected subjects expressing HLA-B*57:01, we observed strong selection pressure driven by the HLA-B*57:03-KF11 response for the escape mutation S173T. This mutation reduces recognition of virus-infected cells by HLA-B*57:03-KF11 CTLs and is associated with a >1-log increase in viral load in HLA-B*57:03-positive subjects (P = 0.009). We demonstrate functional constraints imposed by HIV clade relating to the residue at Gag 173 that explain the differential clade-specific escape patterns in HLA-B*57:03 subjects. Further studies are needed to evaluate the role of the KF11 response in HLA-B*57:01-associated HIV disease protection. IMPORTANCE: HLA-B*57 is the HLA class I molecule that affords the greatest protection against disease progression in HIV infection. Understanding the key mechanism(s) underlying immunosuppression of HIV is of importance in guiding therapeutic and vaccine-related approaches to improve the levels of HIV control occurring in nature. Numerous mechanisms have been proposed to explain the HLA associations with differential HIV disease outcome, but no consensus exists. These studies focus on two subtypes of HLA-B*57 prevalent in Caucasian and African populations, HLA-B*57:01 and HLA-B*57:03, respectively. These alleles appear equally protective against HIV disease progression. The CTL epitopes presented are in many cases identical, and the dominant response in chronic infection in each case is to the Gag epitope KF11. However, there the similarity ends. This study sought to better understand the reasons for these differences and what they teach us about which immune responses contribute to immune control of HIV infection.

Rate-dependent shear bands in a shear-transformation-zone model of amorphous solids.

We use shear transformation zone (STZ) theory to develop a deformation map for amorphous solids as a function of the imposed shear rate and initial material preparation. The STZ formulation incorporates recent simulation results [T. K. Haxton and A. J. Liu, Phys. Rev. Lett. 99, 195701 (2007)] showing that the steady state effective temperature is rate dependent. The resulting model predicts a wide range of deformation behavior as a function of the initial conditions, including homogeneous deformation, broad shear bands, extremely thin shear bands, and the onset of material failure. In particular, the STZ model predicts homogeneous deformation for shorter quench times and lower strain rates, and inhomogeneous deformation for longer quench times and higher strain rates. The location of the transition between homogeneous and inhomogeneous flow on the deformation map is determined in part by the steady state effective temperature, which is likely material dependent. This model also suggests that material failure occurs due to a runaway feedback between shear heating and the local disorder, and provides an explanation for the thickness of shear bands near the onset of material failure. We find that this model, which resolves dynamics within a sheared material interface, predicts that the stress weakens with strain much more rapidly than a similar model which uses a single state variable to specify internal dynamics on the interface.

Strain localization in a shear transformation zone model for amorphous solids.

We model a sheared disordered solid using the theory of shear transformation zones (STZs). In this mean-field continuum model the density of zones is governed by an effective temperature that approaches a steady state value as energy is dissipated. We compare the STZ model to simulations by Shi [Phys. Rev. Lett. 98, 185505 (2007)], finding that the model generates solutions that fit the data, exhibit strain localization, and capture important features of the localization process. We show that perturbations to the effective temperature grow due to an instability in the transient dynamics, but unstable systems do not always develop shear bands. Nonlinear energy dissipation processes interact with perturbation growth to determine whether a material exhibits strain localization. By estimating the effects of these interactions, we derive a criterion that determines which materials exhibit shear bands based on the initial conditions alone. We also show that the shear band width is not set by an inherent diffusion length scale but instead by a dynamical scale that depends on the imposed strain rate.

Wildfires, complexity, and highly optimized tolerance.

Recent, large fires in the western United States have rekindled debates about fire management and the role of natural fire regimes in the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems. This real-world experience parallels debates involving abstract models of forest fires, a central metaphor in complex systems theory. Both real and modeled fire-prone landscapes exhibit roughly power law statistics in fire size versus frequency. Here, we examine historical fire catalogs and a detailed fire simulation model; both are in agreement with a highly optimized tolerance model. Highly optimized tolerance suggests robustness tradeoffs underlie resilience in different fire-prone ecosystems. Understanding these mechanisms may provide new insights into the structure of ecological systems and be key in evaluating fire management strategies and sensitivities to climate change.

Three mechanisms for power laws on the Cayley tree.

We compare preferential growth, critical phase transitions, and highly optimized tolerance (HOT) as mechanisms for generating power laws in the familiar and analytically tractable context of lattice percolation and forest fire models on the Cayley tree. All three mechanisms have been widely discussed in the context of complexity in natural and technological systems. This parallel study enables direct comparison of the mechanisms and associated lattice solutions. Criticality fits most naturally into the category of random processes, where power laws are a consequence of fluctuations in an ensemble with no intrinsic scale. The power laws in preferential growth can be understood in the context of competing exponential growth and decay processes. HOT generalizes this functional mechanism involving exponentials of exponentials to a broader class of nonexponential functions, which arise from optimization.

Highly optimized tolerance and power laws in dense and sparse resource regimes.

Power law cumulative frequency (P) versus event size (l) distributions P > or =l) approximately l(-alpha) are frequently cited as evidence for complexity and serve as a starting point for linking theoretical models and mechanisms with observed data. Systems exhibiting this behavior present fundamental mathematical challenges in probability and statistics. The broad span of length and time scales associated with heavy tailed processes often require special sensitivity to distinctions between discrete and continuous phenomena. A discrete highly optimized tolerance (HOT) model, referred to as the probability, loss, resource (PLR) model, gives the exponent alpha=1/d as a function of the dimension d of the underlying substrate in the sparse resource regime. This agrees well with data for wildfires, web file sizes, and electric power outages. However, another HOT model, based on a continuous (dense) distribution of resources, predicts alpha=1+1/d . In this paper we describe and analyze a third model, the cuts model, which exhibits both behaviors but in different regimes. We use the cuts model to show all three models agree in the dense resource limit. In the sparse resource regime, the continuum model breaks down, but in this case, the cuts and PLR models are described by the same exponent.

Evolutionary dynamics and highly optimized tolerance.

We develop a numerical model of a lattice community based on Highly Optimized Tolerance (HOT), which relates the evolution of complexity to robustness tradeoffs in an uncertain environment. With the model, we explore scenarios for evolution and extinction which are abstractions of processes which are commonly discussed in biological and ecological case studies. These include the effects of different habitats on the phenotypic traits of the organisms, the effects of different mutation rates on adaptation, fitness, and diversity, and competition between generalists and specialists. The model exhibits a wide variety of microevolutionary and macroevolutionary phenomena which can arise in organisms which are subject to random mutation, and selection based on fitness evaluated in a specific environment. Generalists arise in uniform habitats, where different disturbances occur with equal frequency, while specialists arise when the relative frequency of different disturbances is skewed. Fast mutators are seen to play a primary role in adaptation, while slow mutators preserve well-adapted configurations. When uniform and skewed habitats are coupled through migration of the organisms, we observe a primitive form of punctuated equilibrium. Rare events in the skewed habitat lead to extinction of the specialists, whereupon generalists invade from the uniform habitat, adapt to their new surroundings, ultimately leading their progeny to become vulnerable to extinction in a subsequent rare disturbance.

A supershear transition mechanism for cracks.

Seismic data indicate that fault ruptures follow complicated paths with variable velocity because of inhomogeneities in initial stress or fracture energy. We report a phenomenon unique to three-dimensional cracks: Locally stronger fault sections, rather than slowing ruptures, drive them forward at velocities exceeding the shear wave speed. This supershear mechanism differentiates barrier and asperity models of fault heterogeneity, which previously have been regarded as indistinguishable. High strength barriers concentrate energy, producing potentially destructive pulses of strong ground motion.

One-year follow-up results of the STARS for Families alcohol prevention program.

This study examined the 1-year follow-up effects of the STARS (Start Taking Alcohol Risks Seriously) for Families program, a 2-year preventive intervention based on a stage of acquisition model, and consisting of nurse consultations and parent materials. A randomized controlled trial was conducted, with participants receiving either the intervention or a minimal intervention control. Participants included a cohort of 650 sixth-grade students from two urban middle schools-one magnet (bused) and one neighborhood. Trained project staff administered questionnaires to students following a standardized protocol in the schools. For the magnet school sample, significantly fewer intervention students (5%) were planning to drink in the next 6 months than control students (18%), chi2 = 11.53, 1 d.f., P = 0.001. Magnet school intervention students also had less intentions to drink in the future, greater motivation to avoid drinking and less total alcohol risk than control students, Ps < 0.05. For the neighborhood school, intervention students (m = 7.90, SD = 1.87) had less total alcohol risk than control students (m = 8.42, SD = 1.83), F(1,205) = 4.09, P = 0.04. These findings suggest that a brief, stage and risk/protective factor tailored program holds promise for reducing risk for alcohol use among urban school youth 1 year after intervention, and has the unique advantage of greater 'transportability' over classroom-based prevention programs.

Design degrees of freedom and mechanisms for complexity.

We develop a discrete spectrum of percolation forest fire models characterized by increasing design degrees of freedom (DDOF's). The DDOF's are tuned to optimize the yield of trees after a single spark. In the limit of a single DDOF, the model is tuned to the critical density. Additional DDOF's allow for increasingly refined spatial patterns, associated with the cellular structures seen in highly optimized tolerance (HOT). The spectrum of models provides a clear illustration of the contrast between criticality and HOT, as well as a concrete quantitative example of how a sequence of robustness tradeoffs naturally arises when increasingly complex systems are developed through additional layers of design. Such tradeoffs are familiar in engineering and biology and are a central aspect of the complex systems that can be characterized as HOT.

Complexity and robustness.

Highly optimized tolerance (HOT) was recently introduced as a conceptual framework to study fundamental aspects of complexity. HOT is motivated primarily by systems from biology and engineering and emphasizes, (i) highly structured, nongeneric, self-dissimilar internal configurations, and (ii) robust yet fragile external behavior. HOT claims these are the most important features of complexity and not accidents of evolution or artifices of engineering design but are inevitably intertwined and mutually reinforcing. In the spirit of this collection, our paper contrasts HOT with alternative perspectives on complexity, drawing on real-world examples and also model systems, particularly those from self-organized criticality.

Mutation, specialization, and hypersensitivity in highly optimized tolerance.

We introduce a model of evolution in which competing organisms are represented by percolation lattice models. Fitness is based on the number of occupied sites remaining after removing a cluster connected to a randomly selected site. High-fitness individuals arising through mutation and selection must trade off density versus robustness to loss, and are characterized by cellular barrier patterns that prevent large cascading losses to common disturbances. This model shows that Highly Optimized Tolerance (HOT), which links complexity to robustness in designed systems, arises naturally through Darwinian mechanisms. Although the model is a severe abstraction of biology, it produces a surprisingly wide variety of micro- and macroevolutionary features strikingly similar to real biological evolution.

Effects of a stage-based alcohol preventive intervention for inner-city youth.

The purpose of this study was to examine first year outcomes of an alcohol preventive intervention within inner-city middle schools. Subjects consisted of 650 sixth grade students from one neighborhood inner-city school (n = 262) and one bused school (n = 388). At posttest, chi-square analyses showed that significantly fewer neighborhood intervention students initiated alcohol use, used alcohol during the past seven-day and thirty-day periods, drank heavily during the past thirty days, and drank over any period of time, compared to control students (p's < .05). Significant group x prior alcohol consequences interaction effects were found for bused students, showing those with past alcohol consequences who received the intervention had less intentions to use alcohol and less frequent use of alcohol (p's < .05). These results suggest that a brief, stage-based preventive intervention may result in significant reductions in alcohol initiation and consumption among some inner-city youth.

Highly optimized tolerance in epidemic models incorporating local optimization and regrowth.

In the context of a coupled map model of population dynamics, which includes the rapid spread of fatal epidemics, we investigate the consequences of two new features in highly optimized tolerance (HOT), a mechanism which describes how complexity arises in systems which are optimized for robust performance in the presence of a harsh external environment. Specifically, we (1) contrast global and local optimization criteria and (2) investigate the effects of time dependent regrowth. We find that both local and global optimization lead to HOT states, which may differ in their specific layouts, but share many qualitative features. Time dependent regrowth leads to HOT states which deviate from the optimal configurations in the corresponding static models in order to protect the system from slow (or impossible) regrowth which follows the largest losses and extinctions. While the associated map can exhibit complex, chaotic solutions, HOT states are confined to relatively simple dynamical regimes.

Results of a social norm intervention to prevent binge drinking among first-year residential college students.

The effects of a primary prevention social norm intervention on binge drinking among 1st-year residential college students were examined. Six hundred thirty-four students attending a medium-sized public university in the South were randomly assigned to receive a two-phase social norm intervention or the standard campus psychoeducational prevention program. At posttest, no differences were found between intervention and control group students on any of the alcohol use and alcohol-use risk factor measures. Significant subgroup differences were found by stage of initiating binge drinking behaviors, for frequency of alcohol use, F(3, 507) = 3.69, p = .01; quantity of alcohol use, F(3, 507) = 2.51, p = .05; and social norms, F(3, 505) = 2.53, p = .05. These findings suggest the need for tailoring social norm binge drinking interventions to students' stage of initiating heavy drinking and carefully monitoring for potential negative, as well as positive, effects of norm-based prevention messages.

Effects of a brief alcohol preventive intervention for youth attending school sports physical examinations.

This pilot study examined the feasibility and efficacy of a brief alcohol misuse preventive intervention for 178 7th-9th grade junior high school students attending sports physical examinations at three schools during the Summer of 1997. At 6-month posttest, fewer suburban intervention youth intended to use alcohol during the next 6 months (chi2 = 7.01, 1 df, p = .01), and fewer rural intervention youth used alcohol during the past 30 days (chi2 = 4.65, 1 df, p = .04), compared to control youth. When suburban and rural school samples were collapsed, intervention youth had significantly lower alcohol use on three of four measures than control subjects (p's < .05).