Incidence, risk and evolution of ostheoporotic hip fractures in Spanish women using a Markov type model. / Incidencia, riesgo y evolución de las fracturas osteoporóticas de cuello de fémur en las mujeres en España, a partir de un modelo de Markov.

BACKGROUND: To estimate osteoporotic hip fracture incidence rates, by age and gender, and lifetime fracture risk of women of different age groups over 45 in Spain, and to determine the expected number of fractures and fracture-related person-years of functional impairment, as a basis for estimating the social costs of osteoporosis in Spain and the avoided costs of fractures in future cost-effectiveness analyses. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The natural history of disease, recognized from fractures, is described using a Markov model and MonteCarlo simulations. Four cohorts of 10,000 women, each of a different age group, were simulated. Data were obtained from six hospitals of different size and geographical setting, to allow for differences in hospital service structure. Patients included were all new cases of hip fracture who were attended in those hospitals in 1995. Results are extrapolated to the Spanish population based on 1991 census. RESULTS: We can predict in the group of women aged 50 an over in Spain 968,000 osteoporotic hip fractures during their remaining lifetime, with a total amount of 1,013,000 fractures. Some 135,000 will become functionally impaired due to the fractures, accounting for 1,177,000 person-years of functional impairment. CONCLUSIONS: The study provides a prototype for estimating avoided costs of fractures in future cost-effectiveness analyses.

[Changes necessary for continuing health reform: I. The "external" change]. / Los cambios necesarios para continuar la reforma sanitaria: I. El cambio "externo".

The article analyzes the need to obtain support from all actors if the reform of the health system is to be finalized. The relevant groups are the government, professional groups, workers, the population, civil servants, managers and firms with interests in the health field. It is necessary to develop a social marketing strategy that reinforces and broadens the current supports to change. Basic elements would be: Develop new service to satisfy users' needs; orient the services to defined "market" segments; position new services or "re-position" the existing ones in order to communicate their advantages; develop a plan of marketing based on promotion, prize and place focused on the role of health professionals as the main service sellers.

[Changes necessary for continuing health reform: II. The "internal" change]. / Los cambios necesarios para continuar la reforma sanitaria: II. El cambio "interno".

The article desired organizational and managerial changes in Primary Health Care, so as to develop a sound and feasible social marketing strategy. Key elements that should be changed are: 1. Rigid and centralized administrative structures and procedures. 2. Incentives system centralized and dissociated from the managerial structure. 3. Primary Health Care management units immersed in political conflict. 4. Absence of alternative in the margin. Users cannot choose. 5. Lack of an internal marketing strategy. Several ways of internal markets simulation are assessed as potential means for internal change. The need for an administration reform leading to a less inflexible system in the Spanish national and regional health services in reviewed too. Three changes are considered essential: a) Payment systems in Primary Health Care. b) Modifications in the personnel contracts. c) Reform of the budgeting processes. Specific strategies in each of these issues are suggested, making emphasizing the need of their interrelationship and coherence.