Geometric probability distribution for modeling of error risk during prescription dispensing.

PURPOSE: The relationship between the number of prescriptions dispensed by individual pharmacy staff during a single workday and the probability of committing at least one dispensing error during that same workday period was evaluated using a geometric probability distribution. SUMMARY: A cross-sectional descriptive study involving 50 pharmacies located in six cities across the United States was conducted. A pharmacist trained to detect dispensing errors recorded the number of prescriptions filled by each pharmacy staff member and noted which prescription represented the staff member's first dispensing error (defined as any deviation from the prescriber's order) made during the observation period. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests for discrete distributions revealed that the observed cumulative distribution of dispensing errors could have come from a geometric probability distribution that assumed dispensing error rates of 2-3%. In terms of risk analysis, this study's findings suggest that there can be a quantifiable statistical relationship between a measure of workload and the risk of committing at least one dispensing error. The ability to model dispensing errors using a geometric probability distribution enables the safety and health care practitioner to directly assess dispensing error risk as a function of a pharmacy's accuracy rate and the number of prescriptions a pharmacy staff member should dispense during a work shift. CONCLUSION: A geometric probability distribution effectively modeled the relationship between the number of prescriptions filled and the occurrence of the first dispensing errors.

Control chart for monitoring occupational asthma.

INTRODUCTION: Work-related asthma has become the most prevalent occupational respiratory disease in the developed world. Occupational asthma is thought to affect 5%-10% of people worldwide. The first step in the diagnosis of occupational asthma is to establish work-relatedness. Although considerable research has been conducted in the area of occupational asthma, no simple, effective, and statistically sound method has been developed that can be used as an initial step to effectively identify the workers at risk for occupational asthma. The purpose of this research was to investigate whether Shewhart control chart method can be used as an effective method to detect occupational asthma. METHOD: Forty-five workers who completed the study and provided usable peak expiratory flow (a lung function marker) recordings while at work and away from work were included in this study. Control charts were developed using Shewhart's Method. The lower control limit of at work control chart (LCL(W)) was compared to each subject's Personal Best (PB) value. RESULTS: Reviewing the results of this comparison showed LCL(W)<60% PB to have a sensitivity of 85.71%, specificity of 87.50%, and an error rate of 13.33%. When the subjects suspected for false positive and false negative diagnoses were identified, the test produced a sensitivity of 95.24%, a specificity of 95.83% and an error rate of 4.44%. CONCLUSIONS: Our results were as good as, and in some cases better than, published clinical guidelines. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Our research showed that the control chart method is an effective, simple, and inexpensive tool for early intervention in workers suspected for occupational asthma.

Applying mathematical modeling to create job rotation schedules for minimizing occupational noise exposure.

This research developed worker schedules by using administrative controls and a computer programming model to reduce the likelihood of worker hearing loss. By rotating the workers through different jobs during the day it was possible to reduce their exposure to hazardous noise levels. Computer simulations were made based on data collected in a real setting. Worker schedules currently used at the site are compared with proposed worker schedules from the computer simulations. For the worker assignment plans found by the computer model, the authors calculate a significant decrease in time-weighted average (TWA) sound level exposure. The maximum daily dose that any worker is exposed to is reduced by 58.8%, and the maximum TWA value for the workers is reduced by 3.8 dB from the current schedule.

National observational study of prescription dispensing accuracy and safety in 50 pharmacies.

OBJECTIVES: To measure dispensing accuracy rates in 50 pharmacies located in 6 cities across the United States and describe the nature and frequency of the errors detected. DESIGN: Cross-sectional descriptive study. SETTINGS: Chain, independent, and health-system pharmacies (located in hospitals or managed care organizations). PARTICIPANTS: Pharmacy staff at randomly selected pharmacies in each city who accepted an invitation to participate. INTERVENTION: Observation by a pharmacist in each pharmacy for 1 day, with a goal of inspecting 100 prescriptions for dispensing errors (defined as any deviation from the prescriber's order). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Dispensing errors on new and refill prescriptions. RESULTS: Data were collected between July 2000 and April 2001. The overall dispensing accuracy rate was 98.3% (77 errors among 4,481 prescriptions; range, 87.2%-100.0%; 95.0% confidence interval, +/- 0.4%). Accuracy rates did not differ significantly by pharmacy type or city. Of the 77 identified errors, 5 (6.5%) were judged to be clinically important. CONCLUSION: Dispensing errors are a problem on a national level, at a rate of about 4 errors per day in a pharmacy filling 250 prescriptions daily. An estimated 51.5 million errors occur during the filling of 3 billion prescriptions each year.