Sample size, library composition, and genotypic diversity among natural populations of Escherichia coli from different animals influence accuracy of determining sources of fecal pollution.

A horizontal, fluorophore-enhanced, repetitive extragenic palindromic-PCR (rep-PCR) DNA fingerprinting technique (HFERP) was developed and evaluated as a means to differentiate human from animal sources of Escherichia coli. Box A1R primers and PCR were used to generate 2,466 rep-PCR and 1,531 HFERP DNA fingerprints from E. coli strains isolated from fecal material from known human and 12 animal sources: dogs, cats, horses, deer, geese, ducks, chickens, turkeys, cows, pigs, goats, and sheep. HFERP DNA fingerprinting reduced within-gel grouping of DNA fingerprints and improved alignment of DNA fingerprints between gels, relative to that achieved using rep-PCR DNA fingerprinting. Jackknife analysis of the complete rep-PCR DNA fingerprint library, done using Pearson's product-moment correlation coefficient, indicated that animal and human isolates were assigned to the correct source groups with an 82.2% average rate of correct classification. However, when only unique isolates were examined, isolates from a single animal having a unique DNA fingerprint, Jackknife analysis showed that isolates were assigned to the correct source groups with a 60.5% average rate of correct classification. The percentages of correctly classified isolates were about 15 and 17% greater for rep-PCR and HFERP, respectively, when analyses were done using the curve-based Pearson's product-moment correlation coefficient, rather than the band-based Jaccard algorithm. Rarefaction analysis indicated that, despite the relatively large size of the known-source database, genetic diversity in E. coli was very great and is most likely accounting for our inability to correctly classify many environmental E. coli isolates. Our data indicate that removal of duplicate genotypes within DNA fingerprint libraries, increased database size, proper methods of statistical analysis, and correct alignment of band data within and between gels improve the accuracy of microbial source tracking methods.

Assessment of statistical methods used in library-based approaches to microbial source tracking.

Several commonly used statistical methods for fingerprint identification in microbial source tracking (MST) were examined to assess the effectiveness of pattern-matching algorithms to correctly identify sources. Although numerous statistical methods have been employed for source identification, no widespread consensus exists as to which is most appropriate. A large-scale comparison of several MST methods, using identical fecal sources, presented a unique opportunity to assess the utility of several popular statistical methods. These included discriminant analysis, nearest neighbour analysis, maximum similarity and average similarity, along with several measures of distance or similarity. Threshold criteria for excluding uncertain or poorly matched isolates from final analysis were also examined for their ability to reduce false positives and increase prediction success. Six independent libraries used in the study were constructed from indicator bacteria isolated from fecal materials of humans, seagulls, cows and dogs. Three of these libraries were constructed using the rep-PCR technique and three relied on antibiotic resistance analysis (ARA). Five of the libraries were constructed using Escherichia coli and one using Enterococcus spp. (ARA). Overall, the outcome of this study suggests a high degree of variability across statistical methods. Despite large differences in correct classification rates among the statistical methods, no single statistical approach emerged as superior. Thresholds failed to consistently increase rates of correct classification and improvement was often associated with substantial effective sample size reduction. Recommendations are provided to aid in selecting appropriate analyses for these types of data.