Components of farm milk price behavior in Brazil from 2005 to 2020

The objective of this study was to assess behavior patterns in Brazilian farm milk prices. We employed a structural time series techniques model, the Unobserved Component Model (UCM), which is part of the family of State Space models, to assess the trend, seasonality, cyclical behavior, and impacts of exogenous regressors on aggregated farm milk price behavior in Brazil from January 2005 to December 2019. We tested five alternative models with different regressors using the monthly national average prices of milk paid to farmers. The fit of the models was assessed with Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion. Predictions were assessed by the root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). All models demonstrated a high degree of accuracy. Trends, seasonality, and two cycles were statistically significant, with the trend and long-period cycle contributing the most to price variation. Exogenous factors such as feed cost and international dairy product prices also had significant positive effects on the level of Brazil's farm milk prices. All models demonstrated a high degree of accuracy, which may indicate their usefulness for price forecasting and policy formulation.(AU)

Hedonic pricing analysis for semen of dairy bulls in Brazil.

Dairy farming is an important aspect of the Brazilian agricultural sector. The presence of numerous producers has created a large number of jobs in this field, contributing significantly to the rural economy. Artificial insemination (AI), used as one of the main means of reproduction, is increasingly gaining importance in the genetic improvement of animals. Given this scenario, the semen of bulls has become extremely marketable and an important aspect of the animal industry. This study aims to develop a hedonic model for the price of semen doses of dairy bulls based on the information from the main sellers of the product in the Brazilian market. The main findings reveal that there is an additional premium for proven bulls. Semen doses from Gir bulls proved to be more expensive, and the AI firm ALTA has a discount compared to the other firms. From the characteristics obtained in the tests, there is a premium only for the Predicted Transmitting Ability-Milk (volume). The most valued feature found is the dose being sexed, that is, the dose that guarantees the gestation of a female from its use. Semen doses from dead bulls has proved to be more expensive.

Demand analysis on food: effects of Bolsa Família on dairy consumption as a source of calcium / Análise da demanda de alimentos : efeitos do Bolsa Família sobre o consumo de produtos lácteos como fonte de cálcio / Análisis de la demanda de alimentos : efectos de la Bolsa Família en el consumo de productos lácteos como fuente de calcio

Bolsa Família is a conditional cash transfer program in Brazil, which aims to improve education, health and nutrition in poor households. Dairy products are also representative in terms of food expenses in Brazil besides being an important source of calcium. This paper aims to evaluate effects of Bolsa Família on the dairy products demand. Survey data from 55,700 households collected in 2008/2009 by the Brazilian Bureau of Statistics (IBGE) are used. The Heckman two-step method is applied for the estimation. The results suggested that Bolsa Família increases the probability of buying milk powder and unpasteurized milk. As for policy consideration, managing unpasteurized milk and other nutritional education procedures should be considered to improve health and nutrition for low income families.

Bolsa Família é um programa brasileiro de transferência de renda que visa melhorar a educação, a saúde e a nutrição em famílias de baixa renda. Os produtos lácteos são relevantes na despesa das famílias com alimentação e também uma importante fonte de cálcio. O principal objetivo deste artigo é identificar possíveis efeitos da participação no programa Bolsa Família sobre a demanda de produtos lácteos. Os dados utilizados foram oriundos da Pesquisa de Orçamento Familiar (POF), do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE), a qual cobriu 55.700 domicílios em 2008/2009. O método de dois estágios de Heckman foi o utilizado para a elaboração da análise quantitativa. Os resultados sugerem que o Bolsa Família aumenta a probabilidade das famílias em comprar leite em pó e leite não pasteurizado. No âmbito de políticas públicas, uma melhor orientação sobre os riscos de leite não pasteurizado e educação nutricional para as famílias beneficiadas com o programa deveria ser considerada.

Bolsa Família es un programa de transferencia condicional de dinero en Brasil, que tiene como objetivo mejorar la educación, la salud y la nutrición en los hogares pobres. Los productos lácteos son también representativos en términos de gastos de alimentación en Brasil, además de ser una fuente importante de calcio. En este trabajo se estudia el efecto de Bolsa Família en la demanda de productos lácteos. Se utilizan datos de una encuesta a 55.700 hogares recogida en 2008/2009 por la Agencia Brasileña de Estadísticas. Para la estimación se aplica un método Heckman en dos etapas. Los resultados sugieren que Bolsa Família aumenta la probabilidad de compra de leche en polvo y leche sin pasteurizar. En cuanto a la consideración de políticas, la gestión de la leche no pasteurizada y otros procedimientos de educación nutricional deben ser considerados para mejorar la salud y la nutrición de las familias de bajos ingresos.