The tobacco epidemic curve in Brazil: Where are we going?

BACKGROUND: Brazil experienced a robust decline in smoking prevalence rates as a consequence of public policies. Since lung cancer is strongly associated with smoking, trends in lung cancer mortality rates may be used as a delayed effectiveness indicator of smoking prevention interventions. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to estimate lung cancer mortality trends from 1980 through 2017 and to predict temporal trends in lung cancer mortality rates, in Brazil from 2016 through 2040. METHODS: Time trends in lung cancer mortality rates were evaluated using data from available public databases. Crude and age-standardized mortality rates were calculated for each year sex-specific mortality predictions were made for each five-year period from 2016 to 2020 through 2036-2040 using an age-period-cohort (APC) model. Sex ratios were estimated using age-standardized lung cancer mortality rates. RESULTS: A decline in age-standardized lung cancer mortality rates has been observed for males since 2005 and for all predicted periods. It is expected that females aged 55 or younger will experience a reduction in lung cancer mortality from 2021 to 2026 onwards, but for those aged 75 or over rates are predicted to continue increasing through 2036-2040. CONCLUSION: Smoking prevention and cessation policies are essential, and it is important to commit to an ethical framework whereby equity in tobacco control activities between genders is achieved. This will avert many premature and preventable smoking-related deaths in the next decades.

Time trends and age-period-cohort analysis of cervical cancer mortality rate in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer (CC) is a common preventable and curable disease that may lead to death. Our aim was to describe the patterns of time trends in CC mortality rates among women in Brazil from 1980 to 2017, and identify the influence of age, period and birth cohort (APC) stratified by region (North NR, Northeast NER, Southeast SER, South SR, Center-Western region CWR). METHODS: We performed a time-series analysis using secondary data bases. Crude (MR) and WHO age-standardized CC mortality rates (aMR) were estimated per 100,000 women. We evaluated time trends using permutation joinpoint regression models (JP) and APC models to estimate the effect of APC on MR. RESULTS: The JP analysis showed a temporal decrease in all regions, except the NR, which had an annual percentage increase of 0.44 (95%CI 0.2 - 0.7). MR in the NR was 2 to 4 times higher than in the other regions. We observed steady increases in MR with age in the NR and NER. A plateau after age 40 was observed in SER, SR, and CWR. The NR and NER MR ratio stabilized around the year 2000. Birth cohort effect showed decreasing MR ratio from 1900 to 1970 for all regions, except the NR, which showed increasing MR rate from older to more recent cohorts. CONCLUSION: We showed relevant differences in cervical MR by region, which may reflect inequality in access to primary and secondary prevention as well as treatment, particularly in the NR.

Stage at diagnosis and stage-specific survival of breast cancer in Latin America and the Caribbean: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Female breast cancer is the most common cancer in Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries and is the leading cause of cancer deaths. The high mortality-to-incidence ratio in the regions is associated with mainly the high proportion of advanced stage diagnosis, and also to inadequate access to health care. In this study we aimed to systematically review the proportion of advanced stage (III-IV) at diagnosis (pas) and the five-year stage-specific survival estimates of breast cancer in LAC countries. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and LILACS (Latin American and Caribbean Health Science Literature) to identify studies, in any language, indexed before Nov 5, 2018. We also conducted manual search by reviewing citations of papers found. pas was summarized by random effects model meta-analysis, and meta-regression analysis to identify sources of variation. Stage-specific survival probabilities were described as provided by study authors, as it was not possible to conduct meta-analysis. PROSPERO CRD42017052493. RESULTS: For pas we included 63 studies, 13 of which population-based, from 22 countries comprising 221,255 women diagnosed from 1966 to 2017. The distribution of patients by stage varied greatly in LAC (pas 40.8%, 95%CI 37.0% to 44.6%; I2 = 99%; p<0.0001). The heterogeneity was not explained by any variable included in the meta-regression. There was no difference in pas among the Caribbean (pas 43.0%, 95%CI 33.1% to 53.6%), Central America (pas 47.0%, 95%CI 40.4% to 53.8%) and South America (pas 37.7%, 95%CI 33.1% to 42.5%) regions. For 5-year stage-specific survival we included 37 studies, comprising 28,988 women from ten countries. Seven of these studies were included also for pas. Since we were unable to adjust for age, comparability between countries and regions was hampered, and as expected, the results varied widely from study to study. CONCLUSIONS: LAC countries should look to address concerns with early detection and diagnosis of breast cancer, and wherever viable implement screening programs and to provide timely treatment.

Trends in Illicit Cigarette Use in Brazil Estimated From Legal Sales, 2012-2016.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the proportions of illicit cigarette consumption in Brazil from 2012 to 2016, a period of sharp increases in cigarette taxes. METHODS: We used an approach based on legal sales provided by the Secretariat of Federal Revenues and self-reported consumption data from an annually conducted telephone survey (VIGITEL) to estimate the changes over time in illegal cigarette use in Brazil. For that purpose, we also used available information on the proportion of illegal cigarette consumption from a nationwide household survey conducted in 2013 to calculate a constant proportion of underreporting from VIGITEL in relation to total consumption and sales in Brazil. RESULTS: There was an increase in the estimated proportion of illicit cigarette use from 2012 to 2013 (from 28.6% to 32.3%), then a decrease from 2013 to 2014 (32.3% to 28.8%), and then a sustained trend of increase from 2014 to 2016 (28.8% to 42.8%). CONCLUSIONS: Novel and feasible approaches to estimate changes over time in the illegal market are important for helping the effective implementation of tobacco excise tax policy.

Screening of RB1 alterations in Brazilian patients with retinoblastoma and relatives with retinoma: phenotypic and genotypic associations.

PURPOSE: To identify constitutional alterations of the retinoblastoma 1 gene (RB1) in two cohorts of Brazilian patients with retinoblastoma and to analyze genotype-phenotype associations. METHODS: Molecular screening was carried out by direct sequencing of the 27 RB1 exons and flanking regions in blood DNA of 71 patients with retinoblastoma and 4 relatives with retinoma, and with multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA) in 21 patients. The presumed impact of nucleotide substitutions on the structure of the retinoblastoma protein (pRB) was predicted by Polymorphism Phenotyping-2 (PolyPhen-2). Kaplan-Meier and log-rank test were used for estimating 60-month survival rates. RESULTS: One hundred two nucleotide substitutions were detected, 92 substitutions in 59 patients with retinoblastoma and 10 substitutions in 4 individuals with retinoma. Eight substitutions were novel. The majority of substitutions were intronic (86.2%). More than one substitution was present in 37.3% of patients. Twenty-one duplications and 11 deletions were found in 12 patients; some of which with both types of alterations. Duplications/deletions were found in four patients lacking constitutional alterations when analyzed by sequencing, and in eight patients carrying one or more polymorphic intronic substitutions. The global 60-month survival rate in patients was 91.8% (Confidence Interval95% = 85.0 - 99.1). Significant, lower survival rates were found in extraocular presentation (81.0%) versus intraocular tumors (P = 0.014), first enucleation after 1 month following diagnosis (80.9%) versus earlier first enucleation (P = 0.020), and relapse (100.0%) versus absence of relapse (P = 0.0005). CONCLUSIONS: Fifteen substitutions (4 intronic and 11 exonic) were identified as probably or likely pathogenic. Four of these 11 exonic substitutions were novel. Survival rates, however, were not affected by presence of these probably or likely pathogenic alterations, most of which not found in patients with retinoblastoma from other Latin American countries. These differences might be related to the different ethnic composition of the Latin American cohorts. Portuguese Abstract.