Clinical Outcome and 7-Day Virological Clearance in High-Risk Patients with Mild-Moderate COVID-19 Treated with Molnupiravir, Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir, or Remdesivir.

INTRODUCTION: We compared the effectiveness and virological clearance (VC) at day 7 (T7) post-treatment with molnupiravir, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, and remdesivir in SARS-CoV-2-infected patients at high risk (HR) for clinical progression. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study enrolling HR patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 (Jan-Oct 2022) treated with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir or molnupiravir or 3 days of remdesivir. We investigated clinical recovery at T7 (resolution of symptoms for ≥ 72 h or all-cause death), VC at T7 (PCR/antigenic negative nasopharyngeal swab), and median time to VC (days from symptom onset to the first negative swab). Factors associated with VC were investigated by logistic regression. RESULTS: In the study, 92/376 (43.8%) patients received molnupiravir, 150/376 (24.7%) nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, and 134/376 (31.5%) remdesivir. Forty-nine (13%) patients were unvaccinated or incompletely vaccinated. Patients treated with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir were younger and presented immunodeficiencies more frequently; remdesivir was used more commonly in patients hospitalized for other diseases. A high proportion of patients obtained clinical recovery without differences among the therapies (97.5% for molnupiravir, 98.3% for nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, and 93.6% for remdesivir); 12 (3.7%) patients died. Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir was associated with a higher proportion of T7 VC and a shorter time to VC compared to molnupiravir/remdesivir, also after adjustment for age and immunodeficiency (AOR 0.445 RDV vs. NMV-r, 95% CI 0.240-0.826, p = 0.010; AOR 0.222 MNP vs. NMV-r, 95% CI 0.105-0.472, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: SARS-COV-2 antiviral treatments are an excellent therapeutic strategy in HR patients. Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir showed a higher proportion of VC as early as 7 days after treatment, confirming its likely superiority in indirect comparisons.

Nirmatrelvir-ritonavir, molnupiravir, and a 3-day course of remdesivir are antiviral therapies recommended in patients with a mild-to-moderate COVID-19 disease at high risk of clinical progression. Randomized controlled trials and observational studies have shown their efficacy in reducing all-cause mortality and clinical progression. Few data are available about a direct comparison among the three drugs; furthermore, the possible role of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir in increasing viral clearance and in reducing the duration of viral shedding needs to be further elucidated. We thus investigated the effectiveness, safety, and virological clearance 7 days after treatment with these three antivirals in our retrospective cohort. We included in the analysis patients that have received these treatments from January 2022 and October 2022; we observed that patients receiving nirmatrelvir-ritonavir displayed a shorter median time from symptoms' onset to virological clearance and a higher proportion of virological clearance at day 7, also after adjustment for possible confounders, compared to molnupiravir and remdesivir. Our data might help in understanding which COVID-19 patients may benefit mostly from antiviral therapies and in the choice of antiviral therapy.

Real World Estimate of Vaccination Protection in Individuals Hospitalized for COVID-19.

Whether vaccination confers a protective effect against progression after hospital admission for COVID-19 remains to be elucidated. Observational study including all the patients admitted to San Paolo Hospital in Milan for COVID-19 in 2021. Previous vaccination was categorized as: none, one dose, full vaccination (two or three doses >14 days before symptoms onset). Data were collected at hospital admission, including demographic and clinical variables, age-unadjusted Charlson Comorbidity index (CCI). The highest intensity of ventilation during hospitalization was registered. The endpoints were in-hospital death (primary) and mechanical ventilation/death (secondary). Survival analysis was conducted by means of Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression models. Effect measure modification by age was formally tested. We included 956 patients: 151 (16%) fully vaccinated (18 also third dose), 62 (7%) one dose vaccinated, 743 (78%) unvaccinated. People fully vaccinated were older and suffering from more comorbidities than unvaccinated. By 28 days, the risk of death was of 35.9% (95%CI: 30.1−41.7) in unvaccinated, 41.5% (24.5−58.5) in one dose and 28.4% (18.2−38.5) in fully vaccinated (p = 0.63). After controlling for age, ethnicity, CCI and month of admission, fully vaccinated participants showed a risk reduction of 50% for both in-hospital death, AHR 0.50 (95%CI: 0.30−0.84) and for mechanical ventilation or death, AHR 0.49 (95%CI: 0.35−0.69) compared to unvaccinated, regardless of age (interaction p > 0.56). Fully vaccinated individuals in whom vaccine failed to keep them out of hospital, appeared to be protected against critical disease or death when compared to non-vaccinated. These data support universal COVID-19 vaccination.

Female gender is associated with long COVID syndrome: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: We explored the association between female gender and long COVID syndrome, defined as persistence of physical and/or psychological symptoms for more than 4 weeks after recovery from acute COVID-19 disease. The secondary aim was to identify predictors of long COVID syndrome by multivariable logistic regression analysis. METHODS: This was a single-centre prospective cohort study conducted at San Paolo Hospital in Milan, Italy. We enrolled adult patients who were evaluated at the post-COVID outpatient service of our Infectious Diseases Unit between 15 April 2020 and 15 December 2020. Participants were individuals who had clinically recovered from COVID-19 and in whom virological clearance had occurred. Previous infection by SARS-CoV-2 was microbiologically documented by positivity using a reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay of nasopharyngeal swab. All enrolled patients underwent blood tests and a comprehensive medical examination at follow-up. Individuals were interviewed about resolved and persisting symptoms and were asked to fill in two questionnaires to allow assessment of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression symptoms (HADS) score and of the Impact of Event Scale-Revised (IES-R) score. RESULTS: A total of 377 patients were enrolled in the study. The median time from symtpom onset to virological clerance was 44 (37-53) days. A diagnosis of long COVID syndrome was made in 260/377 (69%) patients. The most common reported symptoms were fatigue (149/377, 39.5%), exertional dyspnoea (109/377, 28.9%), musculoskeletal pain (80/377, 21.2%) and "brain fog" (76/377, 20.2%). Anxiety symptoms were ascertained in 71/377 (18.8%) individuals, whereas 40/377 (10.6%) patients presented symptoms of depression. Post-traumatic stress disorder (defined by a pathological IES-R score) was diagnosed in one-third of patients (85/275, 31%). Female gender was independently associated with long COVID syndrome at multivariable analysis (AOR 3.3 vs. males, 95% CI 1.8-6.2, p < 0.0001). Advanced age (adjusted (A)OR 1.03 for 10 years older, 95% CI 1.01-1.05, p 0.01) and active smoking (AOR 0.19 for former smokers vs. active smokers, 95% CI 0.06-0.62, p 0.002) were also associated with a higher risk of long COVID, while no association was found between severity of disease and long COVID (AOR 0.67 for continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP)/non-invasive mechanical ventilation (NIMV)/orotracheal intubation (OTI) vs. no 02 therapy, 95% CI 0.29-1.55, p 0.85). DISCUSSION: Factors that were found to be associated with a higher risk of developing "long COVID" syndrome were female gender, older age and active smoking, but not severity of the acute disease. Individuals affected by SARS-CoV-2 infection with the aforementioned features should be early identified and involved in follow-up programmes.

Declining Mortality Rate of Hospitalised Patients in the Second Wave of the COVID-19 Epidemics in Italy: Risk Factors and the Age-Specific Patterns.

BACKGROUND: Mortality rate from COVID-19 in Italy is among the world's highest. We aimed to ascertain whether there was any reduction of in-hospital mortality in patients hospitalised for COVID-19 in the second-wave period (October 2020-January 2021) compared to the first one (February-May 2020); further, we verified whether there were clusters of hospitalised patients who particularly benefitted from reduced mortality rate. METHODS: Data collected related to in-patients' demographics, clinical, laboratory, therapies and outcome. Primary end-point was time to in-hospital death. Factors associated were evaluated by uni- and multivariable analyses. A flow diagram was created to determine the rate of in-hospital death according to individual and disease characteristics. RESULTS: A total of 1561 patients were included. The 14-day cumulative incidence of in-hospital death by competing risk regression was of 24.8% (95% CI: 21.3-28.5) and 15.9% (95% CI: 13.7-18.2) in the first and second wave. We observed that the highest relative reduction of death from first to second wave (more than 47%) occurred mainly in the clusters of patients younger than 70 years. CONCLUSIONS: Progress in care and supporting therapies did affect population over 70 years to a lesser extent. Preventive and vaccination campaigns should focus on individuals whose risk of death from COVID-19 remains high.

A Quantitative Estimate of the Expected Shortening of the Median Isolation Period of Patients With COVID-19 After the Adoption of a Symptom-Based Strategy.

A long period of isolation was observed in patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in Milan over March-September 2020 (45; IQR: 37-54 days). A significantly shorter period would have been observed by the application of May-WHO (22, IQR: 17-30 days, P < 0.001) and October-Italian (26, IQR: 21-34 days, P < 0.001) Guidelines. The adoption of the new symptom-based criteria is likely to lead to a significant reduction in the length of the isolation period with potential social, economic and psychological benefits, particularly in the younger population with mild/moderate disease and no comorbidities. In our opinion, the release from isolation after 21 days from symptoms onset, even without a PCR diagnostic test, in most cases seems the most adequate strategy that could balance precautions to prevent SARS CoV-2 transmission and unnecessary prolonged isolation or overuse of diagnostic testing.

Anxiety and depression symptoms after virological clearance of COVID-19: A cross-sectional study in Milan, Italy.

Prevalence of anxiety or depression was investigated in 105 coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients at 1 to 3 months from virological clearance by hospital anxiety and depression scale (HADS-A/D). 30% of patients displayed pathological HADS-A/D, 52.4% showed persistent symptoms. Pathological patients with HADS-A/D more commonly reported symptom persistence, even after adjustment for age, gender, and disease severity. Psychological assessments should be encouraged in COVID-19 patients' follow-up.

The importance of patients' case-mix for the correct interpretation of the hospital fatality rate in COVID-19 disease.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to document data on the epidemiology and factors associated with clinical course leading to death of patients hospitalised with COVID-19. METHODS: Prospective observational cohort study on patients hospitalised with COVID-19 disease in February-24th/May-17th 2020 in Milan, Italy. Uni-multivariable Cox regression analyses were performed. Death's percentage by two-weeks' intervals according to age and disease severity was analysed. RESULTS: A total of 174/539 (32.3%) patients died in hospital over 8228 person-day follow-up; the 14-day Kaplan-Meier probability of death was 29.5% (95%CI: 25.5-34.0). Older age, burden of comorbidities, COVID-19 disease severity, inflammatory markers at admission were independent predictors of increased risk, while several drug-combinations were predictors of reduced risk of in-hospital death. The highest fatality rate, 36.5%, occurred during the 2nd-3rd week of March, when 55.4% of patients presented with severe disease, while a second peak, by the end of April, was related to the admission of older patients (55% ≥80 years) with less severe disease, 30% coming from long-term care facilities. CONCLUSIONS: The unusual fatality rate in our setting is likely to be related to age and the clinical conditions of our patients. These findings may be useful to better allocate resources of the national healthcare system, in case of re-intensification of COVID-19 epidemics.