Semi-supervised Double Deep Learning Temporal Risk Prediction (SeDDLeR) with Electronic Health Records.

BACKGROUND: Risk prediction plays a crucial role in planning for prevention, monitoring, and treatment. Electronic Health Records (EHRs) offer an expansive repository of temporal medical data encompassing both risk factors and outcome indicators essential for effective risk prediction. However, challenges emerge due to the lack of readily available gold-standard outcomes and the complex effects of various risk factors. Compounding these challenges are the false positives in diagnosis codes, and formidable task of pinpointing the onset timing in annotations. OBJECTIVE: We develop a Semi-supervised Double Deep Learning Temporal Risk Prediction (SeDDLeR) algorithm based on extensive unlabeled longitudinal Electronic Health Records (EHR) data augmented by a limited set of gold standard labels on the binary status information indicating whether the clinical event of interest occurred during the follow-up period. METHODS: The SeDDLeR algorithm calculates an individualized risk of developing future clinical events over time using each patient's baseline EHR features via the following steps: (1) construction of an initial EHR-derived surrogate as a proxy for the onset status; (2) deep learning calibration of the surrogate along gold-standard onset status; and (3) semi-supervised deep learning for risk prediction combining calibrated surrogates and gold-standard onset status. To account for missing onset time and heterogeneous follow-up, we introduce temporal kernel weighting. We devise a Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs) module to capture temporal characteristics. We subsequently assess our proposed SeDDLeR method in simulation studies and apply the method to the Massachusetts General Brigham (MGB) Biobank to predict type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk. RESULTS: SeDDLeR outperforms benchmark risk prediction methods, including Semi-parametric Transformation Model (STM) and DeepHit, with consistently best accuracy across experiments. SeDDLeR achieved the best C-statistics ( 0.815, SE 0.023; vs STM +.084, SE 0.030, P-value .004; vs DeepHit +.055, SE 0.027, P-value .024) and best average time-specific AUC (0.778, SE 0.022; vs STM + 0.059, SE 0.039, P-value .067; vs DeepHit + 0.168, SE 0.032, P-value <0.001) in the MGB T2D study. CONCLUSION: SeDDLeR can train robust risk prediction models in both real-world EHR and synthetic datasets with minimal requirements of labeling event times. It holds the potential to be incorporated for future clinical trial recruitment or clinical decision-making.

Detection of IgG antibodies against the receptor binding domain of the spike protein and nucleocapsid of SARS-CoV-2 at university students from Southern Mexico: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Natural infection and vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 is associated with the development of immunity against the structural proteins of the virus. Specifically, the two most immunogenic are the S (spike) and N (nucleocapsid) proteins. Seroprevalence studies performed in university students provide information to estimate the number of infected patients (symptomatic or asymptomatic) and generate knowledge about the viral spread, vaccine efficacy, and epidemiological control. Which, the aim of this study was to evaluate IgG antibodies against the S and N proteins of SARS-CoV-2 at university students from Southern Mexico. METHODS: A total of 1418 serum samples were collected from eighteen work centers of the Autonomous University of Guerrero. Antibodies were detected by Indirect ELISA using as antigen peptides derived from the S and N proteins. RESULTS: We reported a total seroprevalence of 39.9% anti-S/N (positive to both antigens), 14.1% anti-S and 0.5% anti-N. The highest seroprevalence was reported in the work centers from Costa Grande, Acapulco and Centro. Seroprevalence was associated with age, COVID-19, contact with infected patients, and vaccination. CONCLUSION: University students could play an essential role in disseminating SARS-CoV-2. We reported a seroprevalence of 54.5% against the S and N proteins, which could be due to the high population rate and cultural resistance to safety measures against COVID-19 in the different regions of the state.

Stratifying Risk for Postpartum Depression at Time of Hospital Discharge.

Objective: Postpartum depression (PPD) represents a major contributor to postpartum morbidity and mortality. Beyond efforts at routine screening, risk stratification models could enable more targeted interventions in settings with limited resources. Thus, we aimed to develop and estimate the performance of a generalizable risk stratification model for PPD in patients without a history of depression using information collected as part of routine clinical care. Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study of all individuals who delivered between 2017 and 2022 in one of two large academic medical centers and six community hospitals. An elastic net model was constructed and externally validated to predict PPD using sociodemographic factors, medical history, and prenatal depression screening information, all of which was known before discharge from the delivery hospitalization. Results: The cohort included 29,168 individuals; 2,703 (9.3%) met at least one criterion for postpartum depression in the 6 months following delivery. In the external validation data, the model had good discrimination and remained well-calibrated: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.721 (95% CI: 0.707-0.734), Brier calibration score 0.088 (95% CI: 0.084 - 0.092). At a specificity of 90%, the positive predictive value was 28.0% (95% CI: 26.0-30.1%), and the negative predictive value was 92.2% (95% CI: 91.8-92.7%). Conclusions: These findings demonstrate that a simple machine-learning model can be used to stratify the risk for PPD before delivery hospitalization discharge. This tool could help identify patients within a practice at the highest risk and facilitate individualized postpartum care planning regarding the prevention of, screening for, and management of PPD at the start of the postpartum period and potentially the onset of symptoms.

Family history as the strongest predictor of aortic and peripheral aneurysms in patients with intracranial aneurysms.

OBJECTIVE: Intracranial aneurysms (IA) and aortic aneurysms (AA) are both abnormal dilations of arteries with familial predisposition and have been proposed to share co-prevalence and pathophysiology. Associations of IA and non-aortic peripheral aneurysms are less well-studied. The goal of the study was to understand the patterns of aortic and peripheral (extracranial) aneurysms in patients with IA, and risk factors associated with the development of these aneurysms. METHODS: 4701 patients were included in our retrospective analysis of all patients with intracranial aneurysms at our institution over the past 26 years. Patient demographics, comorbidities, and aneurysmal locations were analyzed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to study associations with and without extracranial aneurysms. RESULTS: A total of 3.4% of patients (161 of 4701) with IA had at least one extracranial aneurysm. 2.8% had thoracic or abdominal aortic aneurysms. Age, male sex, hypertension, coronary artery disease, history of ischemic cerebral infarction, connective tissues disease, and family history of extracranial aneurysms in a 1st degree relative were associated with the presence of extracranial aneurysms and a higher number of extracranial aneurysms. In addition, family history of extracranial aneurysms in a second degree relative is associated with the presence of extracranial aneurysms and atrial fibrillation is associated with a higher number of extracranial aneurysms. CONCLUSION: Significant comorbidities are associated with extracranial aneurysms in patients with IA. Family history of extracranial aneurysms has the strongest association and suggests that IA patients with a family history of extracranial aneurysms may benefit from screening.

Genome-Wide Association Study of Treatment-Resistant Depression: Shared Biology With Metabolic Traits.

OBJECTIVE: Treatment-resistant depression (TRD) occurs in roughly one-third of all individuals with major depressive disorder (MDD). Although research has suggested a significant common variant genetic component of liability to TRD, with heritability estimated at 8% when compared with non-treatment-resistant MDD, no replicated genetic loci have been identified, and the genetic architecture of TRD remains unclear. A key barrier to this work has been the paucity of adequately powered cohorts for investigation, largely because of the challenge in prospectively investigating this phenotype. The objective of this study was to perform a well-powered genetic study of TRD. METHODS: Using receipt of electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) as a surrogate for TRD, the authors applied standard machine learning methods to electronic health record data to derive predicted probabilities of receiving ECT. These probabilities were then applied as a quantitative trait in a genome-wide association study of 154,433 genotyped patients across four large biobanks. RESULTS: Heritability estimates ranged from 2% to 4.2%, and significant genetic overlap was observed with cognition, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, schizophrenia, alcohol and smoking traits, and body mass index. Two genome-wide significant loci were identified, both previously implicated in metabolic traits, suggesting shared biology and potential pharmacological implications. CONCLUSIONS: This work provides support for the utility of estimation of disease probability for genomic investigation and provides insights into the genetic architecture and biology of TRD.

Validation of an ICD-Code-Based Case Definition for Psychotic Illness Across Three Health Systems.

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: Psychosis-associated diagnostic codes are increasingly being utilized as case definitions for electronic health record (EHR)-based algorithms to predict and detect psychosis. However, data on the validity of psychosis-related diagnostic codes is limited. We evaluated the positive predictive value (PPV) of International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for psychosis. STUDY DESIGN: Using EHRs at 3 health systems, ICD codes comprising primary psychotic disorders and mood disorders with psychosis were grouped into 5 higher-order groups. 1133 records were sampled for chart review using the full EHR. PPVs (the probability of chart-confirmed psychosis given ICD psychosis codes) were calculated across multiple treatment settings. STUDY RESULTS: PPVs across all diagnostic groups and hospital systems exceeded 70%: Mass General Brigham 0.72 [95% CI 0.68-0.77], Boston Children's Hospital 0.80 [0.75-0.84], and Boston Medical Center 0.83 [0.79-0.86]. Schizoaffective disorder PPVs were consistently the highest across sites (0.80-0.92) and major depressive disorder with psychosis were the most variable (0.57-0.79). To determine if the first documented code captured first-episode psychosis (FEP), we excluded cases with prior chart evidence of a diagnosis of or treatment for a psychotic illness, yielding substantially lower PPVs (0.08-0.62). CONCLUSIONS: We found that the first documented psychosis diagnostic code accurately captured true episodes of psychosis but was a poor index of FEP. These data have important implications for the case definitions used in the development of risk prediction models designed to predict or detect undiagnosed psychosis.

The influence of gender and temephos exposure on community participation in dengue prevention: a compartmental mathematical model.

BACKGROUND: The use of temephos, the most common intervention for the chemical control of Aedes aegypti over the last half century, has disappointing results in control of the infection. The footprint of Aedes and the diseases it carries have spread relentlessly despite massive volumes of temephos. Recent advances in community participation show this might be more effective and sustainable for the control of the dengue vector. METHODS: Using data from the Camino Verde cluster randomized controlled trial, a compartmental mathematical model examines the dynamics of dengue infection with different levels of community participation, taking account of gender of respondent and exposure to temephos. RESULTS: Simulation of dengue endemicity showed community participation affected the basic reproductive number of infected people. The greatest short-term effect, in terms of people infected with the virus, was the combination of temephos intervention and community participation. There was no evidence of a protective effect of temephos 220 days after the onset of the spread of dengue. CONCLUSIONS: Male responses about community participation did not significantly affect modelled numbers of infected people and infectious mosquitoes. Our model suggests that, in the long term, community participation alone may have the best results. Adding temephos to community participation does not improve the effect of community participation alone.

Association of Acute Respiratory Disease Events with Quantitative Interstitial Abnormality Progression at CT in Individuals with a History of Smoking.

Background Acute respiratory disease (ARD) events are often thought to be airway-disease related, but some may be related to quantitative interstitial abnormalities (QIAs), which are subtle parenchymal abnormalities on CT scans associated with morbidity and mortality in individuals with a smoking history. Purpose To determine whether QIA progression at CT is associated with ARD and severe ARD events in individuals with a history of smoking. Materials and Methods This secondary analysis of a prospective study included individuals with a 10 pack-years or greater smoking history recruited from multiple centers between November 2007 and July 2017. QIA progression was assessed between baseline (visit 1) and 5-year follow-up (visit 2) chest CT scans. Episodes of ARD were defined as increased cough or dyspnea lasting 48 hours and requiring antibiotics or corticosteroids, whereas severe ARD episodes were those requiring an emergency room visit or hospitalization. Episodes were recorded via questionnaires completed every 3 to 6 months. Multivariable logistic regression and zero-inflated negative binomial regression models adjusted for comorbidities (eg, emphysema, small airway disease) were used to assess the association between QIA progression and episodes between visits 1 and 2 (intercurrent) and after visit 2 (subsequent). Results A total of 3972 participants (mean age at baseline, 60.7 years ± 8.6 [SD]; 2120 [53.4%] women) were included. Annual percentage QIA progression was associated with increased odds of one or more intercurrent (odds ratio [OR] = 1.29 [95% CI: 1.06, 1.56]; P = .01) and subsequent (OR = 1.26 [95% CI: 1.05, 1.52]; P = .02) severe ARD events. Participants in the highest quartile of QIA progression (≥1.2%) had more frequent intercurrent ARD (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.46 [95% CI: 1.14, 1.86]; P = .003) and severe ARD (IRR = 1.79 [95% CI: 1.18, 2.73]; P = .006) events than those in the lowest quartile (≤-1.7%). Conclusion QIA progression was independently associated with higher odds of severe ARD events during and after radiographic progression, with higher frequency of intercurrent severe events in those with faster progression. Clinical trial registration no. NCT00608764 © RSNA, 2024 Supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Little in this issue.

Utility of peripheral protein biomarkers for the prediction of incident interstitial features: a multicentre retrospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION/RATIONALE: Protein biomarkers may help enable the prediction of incident interstitial features on chest CT. METHODS: We identified which protein biomarkers in a cohort of smokers (COPDGene) differed between those with and without objectively measured interstitial features at baseline using a univariate screen (t-test false discovery rate, FDR p<0.001), and which of those were associated with interstitial features longitudinally (multivariable mixed effects model FDR p<0.05). To predict incident interstitial features, we trained four random forest classifiers in a two-thirds random subset of COPDGene: (1) imaging and demographic information, (2) univariate screen biomarkers, (3) multivariable confirmation biomarkers and (4) multivariable confirmation biomarkers available in a separate testing cohort (Pittsburgh Lung Screening Study (PLuSS)). We evaluated classifier performance in the remaining one-third of COPDGene, and, for the final model, also in PLuSS. RESULTS: In COPDGene, 1305 biomarkers were available and 20 differed between those with and without interstitial features at baseline. Of these, 11 were associated with feature progression over a mean of 5.5 years of follow-up, and of these 4 were available in PLuSS, (angiopoietin-2, matrix metalloproteinase 7, macrophage inflammatory protein 1 alpha) over a mean of 8.8 years of follow-up. The area under the curve (AUC) of classifiers using demographics and imaging features in COPDGene and PLuSS were 0.69 and 0.59, respectively. In COPDGene, the AUC of the univariate screen classifier was 0.78 and of the multivariable confirmation classifier was 0.76. The AUC of the final classifier in COPDGene was 0.75 and in PLuSS was 0.76. The outcome for all of the models was the development of incident interstitial features. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple novel and previously identified proteomic biomarkers are associated with interstitial features on chest CT and may enable the prediction of incident interstitial diseases such as idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

Validation of an ICD-code-based case definition for psychotic illness across three health systems.

Background and Hypothesis: Early detection of psychosis is critical for improving outcomes. Algorithms to predict or detect psychosis using electronic health record (EHR) data depend on the validity of the case definitions used, typically based on diagnostic codes. Data on the validity of psychosis-related diagnostic codes is limited. We evaluated the positive predictive value (PPV) of International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for psychosis. Study Design: Using EHRs at three health systems, ICD codes comprising primary psychotic disorders and mood disorders with psychosis were grouped into five higher-order groups. 1,133 records were sampled for chart review using the full EHR. PPVs (the probability of chart-confirmed psychosis given ICD psychosis codes) were calculated across multiple treatment settings. Study Results: PPVs across all diagnostic groups and hospital systems exceeded 70%: Massachusetts General Brigham 0.72 [95% CI 0.68-0.77], Boston Children's Hospital 0.80 [0.75-0.84], and Boston Medical Center 0.83 [0.79-0.86]. Schizoaffective disorder PPVs were consistently the highest across sites (0.80-0.92) and major depressive disorder with psychosis were the most variable (0.57-0.79). To determine if the first documented code captured first-episode psychosis (FEP), we excluded cases with prior chart evidence of a diagnosis of or treatment for a psychotic illness, yielding substantially lower PPVs (0.08-0.62). Conclusions: We found that the first documented psychosis diagnostic code accurately captured true episodes of psychosis but was a poor index of FEP. These data have important implications for the development of risk prediction models designed to predict or detect undiagnosed psychosis.

Proteomics and Machine Learning in the Prediction and Explanation of Low Pectoralis Muscle Area.

Low muscle mass is associated with numerous adverse outcomes independent of other associated comorbid diseases. We aimed to predict and understand an individual's risk for developing low muscle mass using proteomics and machine learning. We identified 8 biomarkers associated with low pectoralis muscle area (PMA). We built 3 random forest classification models that used either clinical measures, feature selected biomarkers, or both to predict development of low PMA. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for each model was: clinical-only = 0.646, biomarker-only = 0.740, and combined = 0.744. We displayed the heterogenetic nature of an individual's risk for developing low PMA and identified 2 distinct subtypes of participants who developed low PMA. While additional validation is required, our methods for identifying and understanding individual and group risk for low muscle mass could be used to enable developments in the personalized prevention of low muscle mass.

Offspring cardiometabolic outcomes and postnatal growth trajectories after exposure to maternal SARS-CoV-2 infection.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to determine whether in utero exposure to SARS-CoV-2 is associated with increased risk for a cardiometabolic diagnosis by 18 months of age. METHODS: This retrospective electronic health record (EHR)-based cohort study included the live-born offspring of all individuals who delivered during the COVID-19 pandemic (April 1, 2020-December 31, 2021) at eight hospitals in Massachusetts. Offspring exposure was defined as a positive maternal SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction test during pregnancy. The primary outcome was presence of an ICD-10 code for a cardiometabolic disorder in offspring EHR by 18 months. Weight-, length-, and BMI-for-age z scores were calculated and compared at 6-month intervals from birth to 18 months. RESULTS: A total of 29,510 offspring (1599 exposed and 27,911 unexposed) were included. By 18 months, 6.7% of exposed and 4.4% of unexposed offspring had received a cardiometabolic diagnosis (crude odds ratio [OR] 1.47 [95% CI: 1.10 to 1.94], p = 0.007; adjusted OR 1.38 [1.06 to 1.77], p = 0.01). Exposed offspring had a significantly greater mean BMI-for-age z score versus unexposed offspring at 6 months (z score difference 0.19 [95% CI: 0.10 to 0.29], p < 0.001; adjusted difference 0.04 [-0.06 to 0.13], p = 0.4). CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to maternal SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with an increased risk of receiving a cardiometabolic diagnosis by 18 months preceded by greater BMI-for-age at 6 months.

HistoriView: Implementation and Evaluation of a Novel Approach to Review a Patient Using a Scalable Space-Efficient Timeline without Zoom Interactions.

BACKGROUND: Timelines have been used for patient review. While maintaining a compact overview is important, merged event representations caused by the intricate and voluminous patient data bring event recognition, access ambiguity, and inefficient interaction problems. Handling large patient data efficiently is another challenge. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to develop a scalable, efficient timeline to enhance patient review for research purposes. The focus is on addressing the challenges presented by the intricate and voluminous patient data. METHODS: We propose a high-throughput, space-efficient HistoriView timeline for an individual patient. For a compact overview, it uses nonstacking event representation. An overlay detection algorithm, y-shift visualization, and popup-based interaction facilitate comprehensive analysis of overlapping datasets. An i2b2 HistoriView plugin was deployed, using split query and event reduction approaches, delivering the entire history efficiently without losing information. For evaluation, 11 participants completed a usability survey and a preference survey, followed by qualitative feedback. To evaluate scalability, 100 randomly selected patients over 60 years old were tested on the plugin and were compared with a baseline visualization. RESULTS: Most participants found that HistoriView was easy to use and learn and delivered information clearly without zooming. All preferred HistoriView over a stacked timeline. They expressed satisfaction on display, ease of learning and use, and efficiency. However, challenges and suggestions for improvement were also identified. In the performance test, the largest patient had 32,630 records, which exceeds the baseline limit. HistoriView reduced it to 2,019 visual artifacts. All patients were pulled and visualized within 45.40 seconds. Visualization took less than 3 seconds for all. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: HistoriView allows complete data exploration without exhaustive interactions in a compact overview. It is useful for dense data or iterative comparisons. However, issues in exploring subconcept records were reported. HistoriView handles large patient data preserving original information in a reasonable time.

Fostering Digital Health in Universities: An Experience of the First Junior Scientific Committee of the Brazilian Congress of Health Informatics.

OBJECTIVES: Digital health (DH) is a revolution driven by digital technologies to improve health. Despite the importance of DH, curricular updates in healthcare university programs are scarce, and DH remains undervalued. Therefore, this report describes the first Junior Scientific Committee (JSC) focusing on DH at a nationwide congress, with the aim of affirming its importance for promoting DH in universities. METHODS: The scientific committee of the Brazilian Congress of Health Informatics (CBIS) extended invitations to students engaged in health-related fields, who were tasked with organizing a warm-up event and a 4-hour session at CBIS. Additionally, they were encouraged to take an active role in a workshop alongside distinguished experts to map out the current state of DH in Brazil. RESULTS: The warm-up event focused on the topic "Artificial intelligence in healthcare: is a new concept of health about to arise?" and featured remote discussions by three professionals from diverse disciplines. At CBIS, the JSC's inaugural presentation concentrated on delineating the present state of DH education in Brazil, while the second presentation offered strategies to advance DH, incorporating viewpoints from within and beyond the academic sphere. During the workshop, participants deliberated on the most crucial competencies for future professionals in the DH domain. CONCLUSIONS: Forming a JSC proved to be a valuable tool to foster DH, particularly due to the valuable interactions it facilitated between esteemed professionals and students. It also supports the cultivation of leadership skills in DH, a field that has not yet received the recognition it deserves.

Development and multi-site external validation of a generalizable risk prediction model for bipolar disorder.

Bipolar disorder is a leading contributor to disability, premature mortality, and suicide. Early identification of risk for bipolar disorder using generalizable predictive models trained on diverse cohorts around the United States could improve targeted assessment of high risk individuals, reduce misdiagnosis, and improve the allocation of limited mental health resources. This observational case-control study intended to develop and validate generalizable predictive models of bipolar disorder as part of the multisite, multinational PsycheMERGE Network across diverse and large biobanks with linked electronic health records (EHRs) from three academic medical centers: in the Northeast (Massachusetts General Brigham), the Mid-Atlantic (Geisinger) and the Mid-South (Vanderbilt University Medical Center). Predictive models were developed and valid with multiple algorithms at each study site: random forests, gradient boosting machines, penalized regression, including stacked ensemble learning algorithms combining them. Predictors were limited to widely available EHR-based features agnostic to a common data model including demographics, diagnostic codes, and medications. The main study outcome was bipolar disorder diagnosis as defined by the International Cohort Collection for Bipolar Disorder, 2015. In total, the study included records for 3,529,569 patients including 12,533 cases (0.3%) of bipolar disorder. After internal and external validation, algorithms demonstrated optimal performance in their respective development sites. The stacked ensemble achieved the best combination of overall discrimination (AUC = 0.82-0.87) and calibration performance with positive predictive values above 5% in the highest risk quantiles at all three study sites. In conclusion, generalizable predictive models of risk for bipolar disorder can be feasibly developed across diverse sites to enable precision medicine. Comparison of a range of machine learning methods indicated that an ensemble approach provides the best performance overall but required local retraining. These models will be disseminated via the PsycheMERGE Network website.

LATTE: Label-efficient incident phenotyping from longitudinal electronic health records.

Electronic health record (EHR) data are increasingly used to support real-world evidence studies but are limited by the lack of precise timings of clinical events. Here, we propose a label-efficient incident phenotyping (LATTE) algorithm to accurately annotate the timing of clinical events from longitudinal EHR data. By leveraging the pre-trained semantic embeddings, LATTE selects predictive features and compresses their information into longitudinal visit embeddings through visit attention learning. LATTE models the sequential dependency between the target event and visit embeddings to derive the timings. To improve label efficiency, LATTE constructs longitudinal silver-standard labels from unlabeled patients to perform semi-supervised training. LATTE is evaluated on the onset of type 2 diabetes, heart failure, and relapses of multiple sclerosis. LATTE consistently achieves substantial improvements over benchmark methods while providing high prediction interpretability. The event timings are shown to help discover risk factors of heart failure among patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

What are delusions? Examining the typology problem.

Delusions are a heterogenous transdiagnostic phenomenon with a higher prevalence in schizophrenia. One of the most fundamental debates surrounding the philosophical understanding of delusions concerns the question about the type of mental state in which reports that we label as delusional are grounded, namely, the typology problem. The formulation of potential answers for this problem seems to have important repercussions for experimental research in clinical psychiatry and the development of psychotherapeutic tools for the treatment of delusions in clinical psychology. Problematically, such alternatives are scattered in the literature, making it difficult to follow the current development and state of the target discussion. This paper offers an updated critical examination of the alternatives to the typology problem currently available in the literature. After clarifying the two main philosophical views underlying the dominant formulation of the debate (interpretivism and functionalism), we follow the usual distinction between doxastic (the idea that delusions are a type of belief) and anti-doxastic views. We then introduce two new sub-distinctions; on the doxastic camp, we distinguish between revisionist and non-revisionist proposals; on the anti-doxastic camp, we distinguish between commonsensical and non-commonsensical anti-doxasticisms. After analyzing the main claims of each view, we conclude with some of the most fundamental challenges that remain open within the discussion. This article is categorized under: Philosophy > Foundations of Cognitive Science Philosophy > Consciousness Philosophy > Psychological Capacities Neuroscience > Cognition.

Determining Distinct Suicide Attempts From Recurrent Electronic Health Record Codes: Classification Study.

BACKGROUND: Prior suicide attempts are a relatively strong risk factor for future suicide attempts. There is growing interest in using longitudinal electronic health record (EHR) data to derive statistical risk prediction models for future suicide attempts and other suicidal behavior outcomes. However, model performance may be inflated by a largely unrecognized form of "data leakage" during model training: diagnostic codes for suicide attempt outcomes may refer to prior attempts that are also included in the model as predictors. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to develop an automated rule for determining when documented suicide attempt diagnostic codes identify distinct suicide attempt events. METHODS: From a large health care system's EHR, we randomly sampled suicide attempt codes for 300 patients with at least one pair of suicide attempt codes documented at least one but no more than 90 days apart. Supervised chart reviewers assigned the clinical settings (ie, emergency department [ED] versus non-ED), methods of suicide attempt, and intercode interval (number of days). The probability (or positive predictive value) that the second suicide attempt code in a given pair of codes referred to a distinct suicide attempt event from its preceding suicide attempt code was calculated by clinical setting, method, and intercode interval. RESULTS: Of 1015 code pairs reviewed, 835 (82.3%) were nonindependent (ie, the 2 codes referred to the same suicide attempt event). When the second code in a pair was documented in a clinical setting other than the ED, it represented a distinct suicide attempt 3.3% of the time. The more time elapsed between codes, the more likely the second code in a pair referred to a distinct suicide attempt event from its preceding code. Code pairs in which the second suicide attempt code was assigned in an ED at least 5 days after its preceding suicide attempt code had a positive predictive value of 0.90. CONCLUSIONS: EHR-based suicide risk prediction models that include International Classification of Diseases codes for prior suicide attempts as a predictor may be highly susceptible to bias due to data leakage in model training. We derived a simple rule to distinguish codes that reflect new, independent suicide attempts: suicide attempt codes documented in an ED setting at least 5 days after a preceding suicide attempt code can be confidently treated as new events in EHR-based suicide risk prediction models. This rule has the potential to minimize upward bias in model performance when prior suicide attempts are included as predictors in EHR-based suicide risk prediction models.

Self-rated health among adolescents from vulnerable areas and their sociodemographic, lifestyle and contextual factors: A multilevel analysis.

PURPOSE: Understanding self-rated health in young people can help orient global health actions, especially in regions of social vulnerability. The present study analysed individual and contextual factors associated with self-rated health in a sample of Brazilian adolescents. DESIGN AND METHODS: Cross-sectional data from 1272 adolescents (aged 11-17; 48.5% of girls) in low human development index (HDI) neighbourhoods were analysed (HDI from 0.170 to 0.491). The outcome variable was self-rated health. Independent variables relating to individual factors (biological sex, age and economic class) and lifestyle (physical activity, alcohol, tobacco consumption and nutritional state) were measured using standardised instruments. The socio-environmental variables were measured using neighbourhood registered data where the adolescents studied. Multilevel regression was used to estimate the regression coefficients and their 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: Good self-rated health prevalence was of 72.2%. Being male (B: -0.165; CI: -0.250 to -0.081), age (B: -0.040; CI: -0.073 to -0.007), weekly duration of moderate to vigorous physical activity (B: 0.074; CI: 0.048-0.099), body mass index (B: -0.025; CI: -0.036 to -0.015), number of family healthcare teams in the neighbourhood (B: 0.019; CI: 0.006-0.033) and dengue incidence (B: -0.001; CI: -0.002; -0.000) were factors associated with self-rated health among students from vulnerable areas. CONCLUSIONS/PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: Approximately three in every 10 adolescents in areas of social vulnerability presented poor self-rated health. This fact was associated with biological sex and age (individual factors), physical activity levels and BMI (lifestyle) and the number of family healthcare teams in the neighbourhood (contextual).

CT-Based Radiomics to Predict KRAS Mutation in CRC Patients Using a Machine Learning Algorithm: A Retrospective Study.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most common types of cancer worldwide. The KRAS mutation is present in 30-50% of CRC patients. This mutation confers resistance to treatment with anti-EGFR therapy. This article aims at proving that computer tomography (CT)-based radiomics can predict the KRAS mutation in CRC patients. The piece is a retrospective study with 56 CRC patients from the Hospital of Santiago de Compostela, Spain. All patients had a confirmatory pathological analysis of the KRAS status. Radiomics features were obtained using an abdominal contrast enhancement CT (CECT) before applying any treatments. We used several classifiers, including AdaBoost, neural network, decision tree, support vector machine, and random forest, to predict the presence or absence of KRAS mutation. The most reliable prediction was achieved using the AdaBoost ensemble on clinical patient data, with a kappa and accuracy of 53.7% and 76.8%, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity were 73.3% and 80.8%. Using texture descriptors, the best accuracy and kappa were 73.2% and 46%, respectively, with sensitivity and specificity of 76.7% and 69.2%, also showing a correlation between texture patterns on CT images and KRAS mutation. Radiomics could help manage CRC patients, and in the future, it could have a crucial role in diagnosing CRC patients ahead of invasive methods.