The Affordable Care Act Medicaid Expansions and Personal Finance.

Using a novel data set from a major credit bureau, we examine the early effects of the Affordable Care Act Medicaid expansions on personal finance. We analyze less common events such as personal bankruptcy, and more common occurrences such as medical collection balances, and change in credit scores. We estimate triple-difference models that compare individual outcomes across counties that expanded Medicaid versus counties that did not, and across expansion counties that had more uninsured residents versus those with fewer. Results demonstrate financial improvements in states that expanded their Medicaid programs as measured by improved credit scores, reduced balances past due as a percent of total debt, reduced probability of a medical collection balance of $1,000 or more, reduced probability of having one or more recent medical bills go to collections, reduction in the probability of experiencing a new derogatory balance of any type, reduced probability of incurring a new derogatory balance equal to $1,000 or more, and a reduction in the probability of a new bankruptcy filing.

The expanding role of managed care in the Medicaid program: implications for health care access, use, and expenditures for nonelderly adults.

States increasingly use managed care for Medicaid enrollees, yet evidence of its impact on health care outcomes is mixed. This research studies county-level Medicaid managed care (MMC) penetration and health care outcomes among nonelderly disabled and nondisabled enrollees. Results for nondisabled adults show that increased penetration is associated with increased probability of an emergency department visit, difficulty seeing a specialist, and unmet need for prescription drugs, and is not associated with reduced expenditures. We find no association between penetration and health care outcomes for disabled adults. This suggests that the primary gains from MMC may be administrative simplicity and budget predictability for states rather than reduced expenditures or improved access for individuals.

Financial burden of medical out-of-pocket spending by state and the implications of the 2014 Medicaid expansions.

This study is the first to offer a detailed look at the burden of medical out-of-pocket spending, defined as total family medical out-of-pocket spending as a proportion of income, for each state. It further investigates which states have greater shares of individuals with high burden levels and no Medicaid coverage but would be Medicaid eligible under the 2014 rules of the Affordable Care Act should their state choose to participate in the expansion. This work suggests which states have the largest populations likely to benefit, in terms of lowering medical spending burden, from participating in the 2014 adult Medicaid expansions.

Potential national and state medical care savings from primary disease prevention.

OBJECTIVES: We estimated national and state-level potential medical care cost savings achievable through modest reductions in the prevalence of several diseases associated with the same lifestyle-related risk factors. METHODS: Using Medical Expenditure Panel Survey Household Component data (2003-2005), we estimated the effects on medical spending over time of reductions in the prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, and related conditions amenable to primary prevention by comparing simulated counterfactual morbidity and medical care expenditures to actual disease and expenditure patterns. We produced state-level estimates of spending by using multivariate reweighting techniques. RESULTS: Nationally, we estimated that reducing diabetes and hypertension prevalence by 5% would save approximately $9 billion annually in the near term. With resulting reductions in comorbidities and selected related conditions, savings could rise to approximately $24.7 billion annually in the medium term. Returns were greatest in absolute terms for private payers, but greatest in percentage terms for public payers. State savings varied with demographic makeup and prevailing morbidity. CONCLUSIONS: Well-designed interventions that achieve improvements in lifestyle-related risk factors could result in sufficient savings in the short and medium term to substantially offset intervention costs.