Foresight in the time of COVID-19.

Foresight methodologies enable individuals and organizations to envision different future scenarios and plan for greater future resilience. However, foresight is an underused methodology in the Western Pacific region for health policy development that could be extremely beneficial, among other areas, in the context of public health emergency response. We present lessons learned from the application of foresight methodologies through remote, agile think tank sprints to inform the World Health Organization (WHO) Western Pacific Regional Office's (WPRO) response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Four think tanks were set up in topic areas of interest. The think tanks used a six-step foresight methodology to develop scenarios for the pandemic in an 18-month horizon. Backcasting was used to generate recommendations for WHO response and support for countries. This case study demonstrates the value of using foresight methodologies in public health, and specifically in the context of a public health emergency, and its ability to inform more context-appropriate and future-proof responses. FUNDING: Japan.

Proficiency of WHO Global Foodborne Infections Network External Quality Assurance System Participants in Identification and Susceptibility Testing of Thermotolerant Campylobacter spp. from 2003 to 2012.

Campylobacter spp. are foodborne and waterborne pathogens. While rather accurate estimates for these pathogens are available in industrialized countries, a lack of diagnostic capacity in developing countries limits accurate assessments of prevalence in many regions. Proficiency in the identification and susceptibility testing of these organisms is critical for surveillance and control efforts. The aim of the study was to assess performance for identification and susceptibility testing of thermotolerant Campylobacter spp. among laboratories participating in the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Foodborne Infections Network (GFN) External Quality Assurance System (EQAS) over a 9-year period. Participants (primarily national-level laboratories) were encouraged to self-evaluate their performance as part of continuous quality improvement. The ability to correctly identify Campylobacter spp. varied by year and ranged from 61.9% (2008) to 90.7% (2012), and the ability to correctly perform antimicrobial susceptibility testing (AST) for Campylobacter spp. appeared to steadily increase from 91.4% to 93.6% in the test period (2009 to 2012). The poorest performance (60.0% correct identification and 86.8% correct AST results) was observed in African laboratories. Overall, approximately 10% of laboratories reported either an incorrect identification or antibiogram. As most participants were supranational reference laboratories, these data raise significant concerns regarding capacity and proficiency at the local clinical level. Addressing these diagnostic challenges is critical for both patient-level management and broader surveillance and control efforts.

Exposure Patterns Driving Ebola Transmission in West Africa: A Retrospective Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: The ongoing West African Ebola epidemic began in December 2013 in Guinea, probably from a single zoonotic introduction. As a result of ineffective initial control efforts, an Ebola outbreak of unprecedented scale emerged. As of 4 May 2015, it had resulted in more than 19,000 probable and confirmed Ebola cases, mainly in Guinea (3,529), Liberia (5,343), and Sierra Leone (10,746). Here, we present analyses of data collected during the outbreak identifying drivers of transmission and highlighting areas where control could be improved. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Over 19,000 confirmed and probable Ebola cases were reported in West Africa by 4 May 2015. Individuals with confirmed or probable Ebola ("cases") were asked if they had exposure to other potential Ebola cases ("potential source contacts") in a funeral or non-funeral context prior to becoming ill. We performed retrospective analyses of a case line-list, collated from national databases of case investigation forms that have been reported to WHO. These analyses were initially performed to assist WHO's response during the epidemic, and have been updated for publication. We analysed data from 3,529 cases in Guinea, 5,343 in Liberia, and 10,746 in Sierra Leone; exposures were reported by 33% of cases. The proportion of cases reporting a funeral exposure decreased over time. We found a positive correlation (r = 0.35, p < 0.001) between this proportion in a given district for a given month and the within-district transmission intensity, quantified by the estimated reproduction number (R). We also found a negative correlation (r = -0.37, p < 0.001) between R and the district proportion of hospitalised cases admitted within ≤4 days of symptom onset. These two proportions were not correlated, suggesting that reduced funeral attendance and faster hospitalisation independently influenced local transmission intensity. We were able to identify 14% of potential source contacts as cases in the case line-list. Linking cases to the contacts who potentially infected them provided information on the transmission network. This revealed a high degree of heterogeneity in inferred transmissions, with only 20% of cases accounting for at least 73% of new infections, a phenomenon often called super-spreading. Multivariable regression models allowed us to identify predictors of being named as a potential source contact. These were similar for funeral and non-funeral contacts: severe symptoms, death, non-hospitalisation, older age, and travelling prior to symptom onset. Non-funeral exposures were strongly peaked around the death of the contact. There was evidence that hospitalisation reduced but did not eliminate onward exposures. We found that Ebola treatment units were better than other health care facilities at preventing exposure from hospitalised and deceased individuals. The principal limitation of our analysis is limited data quality, with cases not being entered into the database, cases not reporting exposures, or data being entered incorrectly (especially dates, and possible misclassifications). CONCLUSIONS: Achieving elimination of Ebola is challenging, partly because of super-spreading. Safe funeral practices and fast hospitalisation contributed to the containment of this Ebola epidemic. Continued real-time data capture, reporting, and analysis are vital to track transmission patterns, inform resource deployment, and thus hasten and maintain elimination of the virus from the human population.

World Health Organization Global Estimates and Regional Comparisons of the Burden of Foodborne Disease in 2010.

Illness and death from diseases caused by contaminated food are a constant threat to public health and a significant impediment to socio-economic development worldwide. To measure the global and regional burden of foodborne disease (FBD), the World Health Organization (WHO) established the Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG), which here reports their first estimates of the incidence, mortality, and disease burden due to 31 foodborne hazards. We find that the global burden of FBD is comparable to those of the major infectious diseases, HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis. The most frequent causes of foodborne illness were diarrheal disease agents, particularly norovirus and Campylobacter spp. Diarrheal disease agents, especially non-typhoidal Salmonella enterica, were also responsible for the majority of deaths due to FBD. Other major causes of FBD deaths were Salmonella Typhi, Taenia solium and hepatitis A virus. The global burden of FBD caused by the 31 hazards in 2010 was 33 million Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs); children under five years old bore 40% of this burden. The 14 subregions, defined on the basis of child and adult mortality, had considerably different burdens of FBD, with the greatest falling on the subregions in Africa, followed by the subregions in South-East Asia and the Eastern Mediterranean D subregion. Some hazards, such as non-typhoidal S. enterica, were important causes of FBD in all regions of the world, whereas others, such as certain parasitic helminths, were highly localised. Thus, the burden of FBD is borne particularly by children under five years old-although they represent only 9% of the global population-and people living in low-income regions of the world. These estimates are conservative, i.e., underestimates rather than overestimates; further studies are needed to address the data gaps and limitations of the study. Nevertheless, all stakeholders can contribute to improvements in food safety throughout the food chain by incorporating these estimates into policy development at national and international levels.

Approaches to the Surveillance of Foodborne Disease: A Review of the Evidence.

Foodborne disease surveillance aims to reduce the burden of illness due to contaminated food. There are several different types of surveillance systems, including event-based surveillance, indicator-based surveillance, and integrated food chain surveillance. These approaches are not mutually exclusive, have overlapping data sources, require distinct capacities and resources, and can be considered a hierarchy, with each level being more complex and resulting in a greater ability to detect and control foodborne disease. Event-based surveillance is generally the least resource-intensive system and makes use of informal data sources. Indicator-based surveillance is seen as traditional notifiable disease surveillance and consists of routinely collected data. Integrated food chain surveillance is viewed as the optimal practice for conducting continuous risk analysis for foodborne diseases, but also requires significant ongoing resources and greater multisectoral collaboration compared to the other systems. Each country must determine the most appropriate structure for their surveillance system for foodborne diseases based on their available resources. This review explores the evidence on the principles, minimum capabilities, and minimum requirements of each type of surveillance and discusses examples from a range of countries. This review forms the evidence base for the Strengthening the Surveillance and Response for Foodborne Diseases: A Practical Manual.

Causes of non-malarial fever in Laos: a prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Because of reductions in the incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Laos, identification of the causes of fever in people without malaria, and discussion of the best empirical treatment options, are urgently needed. We aimed to identify the causes of non-malarial acute fever in patients in rural Laos. METHODS: For this prospective study, we recruited 1938 febrile patients, between May, 2008, and December, 2010, at Luang Namtha provincial hospital in northwest Laos (n=1390), and between September, 2008, and December, 2010, at Salavan provincial hospital in southern Laos (n=548). Eligible participants were aged 5-49 years with fever (≥38°C) lasting 8 days or less and were eligible for malaria testing by national guidelines. FINDINGS: With conservative definitions of cause, we assigned 799 (41%) patients a diagnosis. With exclusion of influenza, the top five diagnoses when only one aetiological agent per patient was identified were dengue (156 [8%] of 1927 patients), scrub typhus (122 [7%] of 1871), Japanese encephalitis virus (112 [6%] of 1924), leptospirosis (109 [6%] of 1934), and bacteraemia (43 [2%] of 1938). 115 (32%) of 358 patients at Luang Namtha hospital tested influenza PCR-positive between June and December, 2010, of which influenza B was the most frequently detected strain (n=121 [87%]). Disease frequency differed significantly between the two sites: Japanese encephalitis virus infection (p=0·04), typhoid (p=0·006), and leptospirosis (p=0·001) were more common at Luang Namtha, whereas dengue and malaria were more common at Salavan (all p<0·0001). With use of evidence from southeast Asia when possible, we estimated that azithromycin, doxycycline, ceftriaxone, and ofloxacin would have had significant efficacy for 258 (13%), 240 (12%), 154 (8%), and 41 (2%) of patients, respectively. INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest that a wide range of treatable or preventable pathogens are implicated in non-malarial febrile illness in Laos. Empirical treatment with doxycycline for patients with undifferentiated fever and negative rapid diagnostic tests for malaria and dengue could be an appropriate strategy for rural health workers in Laos. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, WHO-Western Pacific Region, Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention