The evolution and outcome of surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus over four decades in a UK District General Hospital.

INTRODUCTION: We present the long-term outcome of Barrett's oesophagus (BO) at a District General Hospital set against the increasing numbers of patients with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD). METHODS: Data were collected prospectively over 37 years. Comparison of GORD without Barrett's (NoBO) versus BO was performed from 1/1/1977 to 31/12/2001 when the NoBO database closed and outcomes of all cases of BO diagnosed until 31/12/2011 and followed up until 31/12/2013 have been reported. RESULTS: During the period 1977-2001 the number of GORD NoBO cases was 11 610, and that of BO cases was 764 (6.2% of all GORD); total number of BO cases in 1977-2011 was 1468. NoBO patients were younger than BO patients: 52.2 versus 61.6 years. There was a male predominance in both groups: NoBO 55% and BO 62% (P<0.0001). The prevalence of oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) was 87/1468 (5.9%) BO cases. Its incidence was 54/1381 (3.9%); the mean interval between the diagnosis of BO and incident OAC was 9 years (range 13 months-25.4 years); there was one OAC per 192 patient-years of follow-up (0.52% per year). Mortality was significantly lower in 37 patients under endoscopic surveillance at the time OAC was diagnosed (51 vs. 88% P=0.0141) partly because of older age and comorbidity of the other 17, in whom serial endoscopy was contraindicated. A proportional hazards model to allow for age estimated that the hazard rate ratio was lower in the surveillance group; however, this difference did not reach statistical significance (0.64, 95% confidence interval 0.30-1.48, P=0.08). Excluding prevalent cancers from both groups, mortality in BO was double that in NoBO (47 vs. 24%). CONCLUSION: These 37 years of observation suggest, but do not confirm, that endoscopic surveillance may reduce the risk of death from OAC. Modern technology is likely to yield better results, but larger prospective studies are needed to confirm the benefits.

Risk stratification for malignant progression in Barrett's esophagus: Gender, age, duration and year of surveillance.

AIM: To clarify risk based upon segment length, diagnostic histological findings, patient age and year of surveillance, duration of surveillance and gender. METHODS: Patients registered with the United Kingdom Barrett's Oesophagus Registry from 9 United Kingdom centers were included. The outcome measures were (1) development of all grades of dysplasia; (2) development of high-grade of dysplasia or adenocarcinoma; and (3) development of adenocarcinoma. Prevalent cases and subjects with < 1 year of follow-up were excluded. The covariates examined were segment length, previous biopsy findings, age at surveillance, duration of surveillance, year of surveillance and gender. RESULTS: One thousand and one hundred thirty six patients were included (total 6474 patient-years). Fifty-four patients developed adenocarcinoma (0.83% per annum), 70 developed high-grade dysplasia/adenocarcinoma (1.1% per annum) and 190 developed any grade of dysplasia (3.5% per annum). High grade dysplasia and adenocarcinoma increased with age and duration of surveillance. The risk of low-grade dysplasia development was not dependent on age at surveillance. Segment length and previous biopsy findings were also significant factors for development of dysplasia and adenocarcinoma. CONCLUSION: The risk of development of low-grade dysplasia is independent of age at surveillance, but high-grade dysplasia and adenocarcinoma were more commonly found at older age. Segment length and previous biopsy findings are also markers of risk. This study did not demonstrate stabilisation of the metaplastic segment with prolonged surveillance.

The socioeconomic profile of a Barrett's oesophagus cohort assessed by the 2010 Index of Multiple Deprivation.

BACKGROUND: Several reports have described the relationship between socioeconomic status and oesophageal adenocarcinoma but only one with its precursor condition, Barrett's oesophagus. We therefore investigated such an association. PATIENTS: The majority (88%) of patients diagnosed with Barrett's at Rotherham District General Hospital between 28 April 1978 and 31 August 2012 consented to inclusion in the UK Barrett's Oesophagus Registry. Those residing within Rotherham form the basis of this study. METHODS: We assessed socioeconomic status using the Index of Multiple Deprivation 2010 scores which can be assigned to every English postcode. The scores for the whole of England were divided into five equal groups; those of the 6257 postcodes within Rotherham (including those of Barrett's patients) were compared against the national quintile relevant to their score. We examined the ratio of observed against expected numbers of Barrett's in each quintile before and since 2001, the median year of diagnosis. RESULTS: The study group comprised 1076 patients with Barrett's oesophagus. Before 2001 their distribution across the deprivation quintiles was similar to that expected. Since then it has changed significantly, with 37% more Barrett's patients than expected among the two least deprived quintiles, but 11% fewer than expected in the larger population comprising the two most deprived quintiles (P=0.0001). There was no significant difference in the distribution of sex (P=0.27), nor the mean age at diagnosis between the two time periods (P=0.92). CONCLUSION: Since 2001, there has been a major change in the distribution of Barrett's in relation to socioeconomic status, measured by the Index of Multiple Deprivation.

Comparative genomic analysis of esophageal cancers.

The following, from the 12th OESO World Conference: Cancers of the Esophagus, includes commentaries on comparative genomic analysis of esophageal cancers: genomic polymorphisms, the genetic and epigenetic drivers in esophageal cancers, and the collection of data in the UK Barrett's Oesophagus Registry.

Lifetime risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma in patients with Barrett's esophagus.

AIM: To investigate the lifetime risk of development of esophageal adenocarcinoma and/or high-grade dysplasia in patients diagnosed with Barrett's esophagus. METHODS: Data were extracted from the United Kingdom National Barrett's Oesophagus Registry on date of diagnosis, patient age and gender of 7877 patients from who had been registered from 35 United Kingdom centers. Life expectancy was evaluated from United Kingdom National Statistics data based upon gender and age at year at diagnosis. These data were then used with published estimates of annual adenocarcinoma and high-grade dysplasia incidences from meta-analyses and large population-based studies to estimate overall lifetime risk of development of these study endpoints. RESULTS: The mean age at diagnosis of Barrett's esophagus was 61.6 years in males and 67.3 years in females. The mean life expectancy at diagnosis was 23.1 years in males, 20.7 years in females and 22.2 years overall. Using data from published meta-analyses, the lifetime risk of development of adenocarcinoma was between 1 in 8 and 1 in 14 and the lifetime risk of high-grade dysplasia or adenocarcinoma was 1 in 5 to 1 in 6. Using data from 3 large recent population-based cohort studies the lifetime risk of adenocarcinoma was between 1 in 10 and 1 in 37 and of the combined end-point of high-grade dysplasia and adenocarcinoma was between 1 in 8 and 1 in 20. Age at Barrett's esophagus diagnosis is reducing and life expectancy is increasing, which will partially counter-balance lower annual cancer incidence. CONCLUSION: There is a significant lifetime risk of development of high-grade dysplasia and adenocarcinoma in Barrett's esophagus.

The relationship between smoking and severe dysplastic disease in patients with Barrett's columnar-lined oesophagus.

The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between smoking and oesophageal high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or adenocarcinoma (AC) in a large cohort of patients with Barrett's columnar-lined oesophagus (CLO). A total of 1280 patients diagnosed with CLO and registered with the UK National Barrett's Oesophagus Registry were included. Data, including smoking habits, were collected from the patient's notes and development of HGD or AC noted. Analysis was performed with SPSS using logistic regression for calculation of odds ratios (ORs) for development of HGD/AC. Data on smoking habits were available in 956 (74.6%) patients. There was no significant difference between smokers and nonsmokers in mean age (P=0.877) or length of follow-up (P=0.359). There was a significant risk of HGD/AC in patients with any history of smoking compared with those who had never smoked (P<0.001, OR 2.81). Ex-smokers of 10 years or more remained at a significantly higher risk of HGD/AC compared with those who had never smoked (P=0.001, OR 3.37). Current smokers were not at a significantly higher risk of HGD/AC compared with ex-smokers (P=0.857) nor were those who smoked at least 20 a day compared with those who smoked fewer than 20 a day (P=0.632). In patients with CLO, smoking appears to be a significant risk factor for the development of severe dysplastic disease; however, we did not observe a dose-dependent effect of smoking on progression of disease.

Barrett's esophagus: surveillance and reversal.

The following on surveillance and reversal of Barrett's esophagus (BE) includes commentaries on criteria for surveillance even when squamous epithelium stains normally with a variety of biomarkers; the long-term follow-up of surgery versus endoscopic ablation of BE; the recommended surveillance intervals in patients without dysplasia; the sampling problems related to anatomic changes following fundoplication; the value of tissue spectroscopy and optical coherence tomography; the cost-effectiveness of biopsy protocols for surveillance; the quality of life of Barrett's patients; and risk stratification and surveillance strategies.

Barrett's esophagus registries.

The following on Barrett's esophagus registries contains commentaries on the data sets to be included, organizational issues, and the demographic, lifestyle, and diagnostic differences between the United States and Europe. The importance of collaborative studies is also discussed.

Barrett's, blood groups and progression to oesophageal cancer: is nitric oxide the link?

INTRODUCTION: Incidence of oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) is increasing rapidly. OAC arises in columnar-lined oesophagus (CLO), a metaplastic change affecting some patients with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD). As yet there is no reliable method of identifying those at highest risk. Our earlier observation of an association between OAC and blood group O Rhesus negative, if confirmed, may help identify those at greatest risk. AIM AND METHODS: To assess the distribution of blood group and Rhesus D (RhD) factor in patients with GORD compared with the blood donating general population. GORD was categorized as nonerosive reflux (NER), erosive oesophagitis, CLO and OAC. The Rotherham Hospital database holds details of all GORD, CLO and OAC patients seen in the Gastroenterology Unit. Blood group information for patients with GORD was obtained from patients' records and the hospital's blood transfusion service. The blood group distribution in the general population was obtained from the National Blood Transfusion Service. The number of expected to observed patients in each blood group for each subtype was compared. RESULTS: Two thousand six hundred and ten NER, 2813 erosive oesophagitis, 568 CLO and 73 OAC patients had a recorded blood group. For RhD positive patients observed proportions in each blood group were similar to expected. The most striking difference was the marked excess of OAC in blood group O, Rhesus negative (P=0.002). CONCLUSION: CLO patients with blood group O, RhD negative carry a disproportionately higher risk of developing OAC. The mechanism is unknown but the finding has practical application in guiding risk stratification and intensity of surveillance.

Projections for oesophageal cancer incidence in England to 2033.

The United Kingdom has the highest age-standardized incidence of oesophageal cancer in Europe. This study projects the number of cases of oesophageal cancer arising in England over a 25-year period. Data from National Statistics were used to determine the number and incidence of oesophageal cancers diagnosed during 2001-2007 (separated by age and sex). These data were used with population projections to model the number of cancers that would develop in the future. Variant estimates were undertaken with high/low rates of migration and life expectancy and by varying the rate of change in the incidence of oesophageal cancer. The principal projection showed that, compared with the 2007 baseline, the number of oesophageal cancers in men is predicted to rise by 20% by 2014 and by 40% by 2020. In women, after an initial predicted decline, the number of cancers is predicted to rise above the 2007 baseline by 2012 and to be 5% higher by 2023. The variant projections showed that only a small effect was likely to be caused by changes in net migration (<1% change by 2030) and life expectancy (1% change by 2020). The effect of a 1% increase or decrease in the rate of change of incidence had a more marked effect (10% change by 2017 or 2018). None of the modelled scenarios resulted in an overall decrease in the number of projected cases because of the change in population demographics. The number of cases of oesophageal cancer in England is likely to continue to increase.

Routinely diagnosed low-grade dysplasia in Barrett's oesophagus: a population-based study of natural history.

AIMS: To examine the natural history of columnar-lined oesophagus with routinely diagnosed low-grade dysplasia and ascertain the risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma development. METHODS AND RESULTS: A multicentre retrospective cohort study of 283 patients with low-grade dysplasia. Follow-up data were obtained from examination of hospital records. One hundred and forty-four patients had biopsies prior to low-grade dysplasia diagnosis and 217 had follow-up biopsies after index low-grade dysplasia diagnosis. In these patients the incidence of high-grade dysplasia and adenocarcinoma combined was 4.6% per annum and of adenocarcinoma alone was 2.7% per annum. At most recent follow-up, 43 (19.8%) had persistent low-grade dysplasia, 37 (17.1%) had changes indefinite for dysplasia and 108 (49.8%) had non-dysplastic columnar-lined oesophagus. When prevalent cases were excluded (those occurring within 1 year of index low-grade dysplasia diagnosis), the annual incidence of high-grade dysplasia and adenocarcinoma combined was 2.2% and of adenocarcinoma alone was 1.4%. The relative risk for adenocarcinoma development in low-grade dysplasia compared with non-dysplastic columnar-lined oesophagus was 2.871 (P = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: Low-grade dysplasia has a threefold increased risk of progression to cancer compared with non-dysplastic epithelium, but in the majority of patients dysplasia is not subsequently detected.

Aspirin is not chemoprotective for Barrett's adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus in multicentre cohort.

Barrett's columnar-lined oesophagus is the precursor lesion for oesophageal adenocarcinoma. The overall rate of progression to adenocarcinoma is 0.59% per annum. A large prospective multicentre trial is recruiting to assess the role of aspirin as a chemoprotective agent in prevention of development of cancer as well as cardiovascular protection in patients with Barrett's oesophagus. This retrospective analysis of the large UK National Barrett's Oesophagus Registry database seeks to analyse this question from within its large natural history study cohort. Multicentre UK retrospective cohort compared patients known to have been taking aspirin with those who did not take aspirin during the course of surveillance for columnar-lined oesophagus. End point was development of dysplasia or oesophageal adenocarcinoma. Analysis was undertaken using Cox's proportional hazard ratio. Total follow-up was 3683 patient-years. Eighty-six patients were taking aspirin, 650 were not taking aspirin (reference group). Numbers of patients developing all grades of dysplasia and adenocarcinoma were: 13 aspirin (15.1%) and 97 no aspirin (14.9%) (hazard ratio 0.723, 95% confidence interval 0.410-1.310, P = 0.294), high-grade dysplasia and adenocarcinoma: five aspirin (5.8%) and 25 no aspirin (3.8%) (hazard ratio 0.898, 95% confidence interval 0.340-2.368, P = 0.827) and adenocarcinoma: four aspirin (4.7%) and 16 no aspirin (2.5%) (hazard ratio 1.092, 95% confidence interval 0.358-3.335, P = 0.877). No significant difference was observed in hazard of developing dysplasia or adenocarcinoma between patients taking aspirin and those not taking aspirin during the course of follow-up of surveillance for columnar-lined oesophagus. In conclusion, no difference in risk of development of dysplasia or adenocarcinoma was observed between patients taking aspirin and those not taking aspirin in this large cohort.

Are newly diagnosed columnar-lined oesophagus patients getting younger?

OBJECTIVES: The prevalence of columnar-lined oesophagus seems to have increased steadily in the past three decades in Europe and North America. Although the vast majority of columnar-lined oesophagus will not progress to malignancy, it is nevertheless important to identify the risk factors associated with this condition. This study investigates whether there has been a change, at diagnosis, in age of columnar-lined oesophagus patients between 1990 and 2005, or an increase in the number of patients aged less than 50 years. METHODS: Data on age of diagnosis were abstracted from medical records of 7220 patients from 19 centres registered with UK National Barrett's Oesophagus Registry, between the years 1990 and 2005. Linear regression analysis was carried out to assess any trends in the mean age of diagnosis. RESULTS: Overall there was a mean decrease in age at diagnosis for each 1-year increase in time. This equated to a mean decrease of 3 years over the study period, 1990-2005 with the greatest difference being seen in female patients. About 18% of patients in the study were aged less than 50 years at the time of diagnosis. With this group also, the trend was similar, with an increase in the number of patients aged less than 50 years, at the time of diagnosis, with increasing years. CONCLUSION: The mean age of diagnosis of columnar-lined oesophagus has decreased between the years 1990 and 2005 in both men and women, more so in women. This is also reflected in an increase in newly diagnosed columnar-lined oesophagus patients below the age of 50 years.

Surveillance of Barrett's columnar-lined oesophagus in the UK: endoscopic intervals and frequency of detection of dysplasia.

OBJECTIVES: Endoscopic surveillance of patients with columnar-lined oesophagus (CLO) may identify those with early adenocarcinoma (AC). The benefits of surveillance are unproven and there is little evidence to support recommendations for precise endoscopic intervals. We sought to examine surveillance practice for CLO in the UK and the impact of endoscopic intervals on detection of dysplastic disease. METHODS: Eight hundred and seventeen patients with CLO, registered with the UK National Barrett's Oesophagus registry and undergoing surveillance were studied. Endoscopic intervals were calculated and frequency of detection of dysplastic disease analysed using chi2 test of association. Factors affecting surveillance intervals were analysed using multiple linear regression. RESULTS: 94.7% of patients with low-grade dysplasia (LGD), 95.0% with high-grade dysplasia (HGD) and 71.4% with AC were diagnosed on surveillance endoscopies. Mean endoscopic surveillance intervals varied between the centres from 1.07 to 1.63 years for nondysplastic CLO; 0.69-1.19 years for LGD, and 0.35-1.17 years for HGD; with overall mean surveillance intervals of 1.29, 1.01 and 0.44 years, respectively. When LGD was surveyed, significantly higher proportions of HGD/AC were detected at intervals of 3 months or less (P=0.013). Shorter endoscopic intervals were significantly associated with the presence of oesophageal strictures (P=0.002), ulcers (P=0.046), increasing patient age (P<0.001) and higher grade of dysplasia surveyed (P<0.001). CONCLUSION: A variation in surveillance practice for CLO was observed throughout the UK. A large proportion of dysplastic disease is detected on specific surveillance endoscopies. Shorter endoscopic intervals for surveillance of LGD are associated with an increased detection of HGD/AC.

Treatment modality and risk of development of dysplasia and adenocarcinoma in columnar-lined esophagus.

Columnar metaplasia is the precursor lesion for esophageal adenocarcinoma, resulting from prolonged gastroesophageal reflux. The influence of the efficacy of reflux control on the development of neoplastic change in columnar-lined esophagus is not established. This study compares the rate of development of dysplasia and adenocarcinoma in patients with columnar metaplasia of the esophagus between patients treated pharmacologically and those treated with antireflux surgery. This study is a retrospective review of a cohort of patients enrolled in a multicenter national registry involving 738 patients from seven UK centers. Forty-one were treated with antireflux surgery, 42 with H2 receptor antagonist, 532 with proton pump inhibitor, and 114 with a combination of these medications. Nine had none of these medications or surgery. Total follow-up was 3697 years. Mean age and follow-up for patients treated medically were 61.6 and 4.96 years and surgically were 50.5 and 6.19 years, respectively. No patient in the surgical group developed high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or adenocarcinoma. Twenty patients treated medically developed adenocarcinoma and 10 developed HGD. Hazards ratio comparing pharmacological to surgical therapy for development of all grades of dysplasia and adenocarcinoma 1.77 (P = 0.272). Log rank test comparing antireflux surgery to pharmacological therapy for development of HGD or adenocarcinoma P = 0.1287 and for adenocarcinoma P = 0.2125. Although there was a trend towards greater efficacy of antireflux surgery over pharmacological therapy in reducing the development of dysplasia and adenocarcinoma, this did not reach statistical significance.

Current United Kingdom practice in the diagnosis and management of columnar-lined oesophagus: results of the United Kingdom National Barrett's Oesophagus Registry endoscopist questionnaire.

The management of the columnar-lined oesophagus (CLO) has remained controversial for the last 10 years, with practices varying between individual physicians and centres throughout the United Kingdom. Various guidelines exist, although international consensus over issues such as the recognition of short-segment disease and surveillance policies for uncomplicated and dysplastic disease is lacking. Questionnaires examining the practice of diagnosis and surveillance of CLO were sent to 41 centres spread throughout the United Kingdom. Thirty (73%) centres replied. Twelve (40%) had a specific written policy for the management of CLO. Twenty-five (83%) centres made a diagnosis of CLO in the presence of any length of columnarization. Twenty-seven (90%) centres surveyed CLO with 81% of them undertaking a selective surveillance policy. Endoscopic surveillance intervals were fairly consistent for uncomplicated CLO and high-grade dysplasia, but were less consistent for low-grade dysplasia. Results confirmed that even amongst centres with a specialist interest in the management of CLO, marked variations exist in diagnosis and surveillance practice.

Barrett's Registries in Europe: report of an International Workshop.

A workshop on Barrett's Registries in Europe was held in Venice in February 2007 with the aim of establishing the feasibility of joint projects. It was concluded that there were enough areas of similarity and common objectives for EBRA to be set up for future collaboration.