The future of endemic and threatened birds of the Amazon in the face of global climate change.

The anthropogenic impacts on the environment, including deforestation and the escalating emissions of greenhouse gases, have significantly contributed to global climate change that can lead to alterations in ecosystems. In this context, protected areas (PAs) are pillars for biodiversity conservation by being able, for example, to maintain the viability of populations of endangered species. On the other hand, the species range shifts do not follow the limits of PAs, jeopardizing the conservation of these species. Furthermore, the effectiveness of PAs is consistently undermined by impacts stemming from land use, hunting activities, and illegal exploitation, both within the designated areas and in their adjacent zones. The objectives of this study are to quantify the impacts of climate change on the distribution of threatened and endemic birds of the Amazon biome, evaluate the effectiveness of PAs in protecting the richness of threatened birds, and analyze the representativeness of species within PAs. We found with our results that climate suitability loss is above 80 for 65% of taxa in the optimistic scenario and above 93% in the pessimistic scenario. The results show that PAs are not effective in protecting the richness of Amazonian birds, just as they are ineffective in protecting most of the taxa studied when analyzed individually Although some taxa are presented as "Protected," in future scenarios these taxa may suffer major shrinkages in their distributions and consequently present population unviability. The loss of climatically suitable areas and the effectiveness of PAs can directly influence the loss of ecosystem services, fundamental to maintaining the balance of biodiversity. Therefore, our study paves the way for conservation actions aimed at these taxa so that they can mitigate current and future extinctions due to climate change.

Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil.

Background: Global shifts in climatic patterns have been recorded over the last decades. Such modifications mainly correspond to increased temperatures and rainfall regime changes, which are becoming more variable and extreme. Methods: We aimed to evaluate the impact of future changes in climatic patterns on the distribution of 19 endemic or threatened bird taxa of the Caatinga. We assessed whether current protected areas (PAs) are adequate and whether they will maintain their effectiveness in the future. Also, we identified climatically stable areas that might work as refugia for an array of species. Results: We observed that 84% and 87% of the bird species of Caatinga analyzed in this study will face high area losses in their predicted range distribution areas in future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively). We also observed that the current PAs in Caatinga are ineffective in protecting these species in both present and future scenarios, even when considering all protection area categories. However, several suitable areas can still be allocated for conservation, where there are vegetation remnants and a high amount of species. Therefore, our study paves a path for conservation actions to mitigate current and future extinctions due to climate change by choosing more suitable protection areas.

The role of ecological niche evolution on diversification patterns of birds distinctly distributed between the Amazonia and Atlantic rainforests.

The Amazonian and Atlantic Forest share several organisms that are currently isolated but were continuously distributed during the Quaternary period. As both biomes are under different climatic regimes, paleoclimatic events may have modulated species' niches due to a lack of gene flow and imposing divergent selection pressure. Here, we assessed patterns of ecological niche overlap in 37 species of birds with disjunct ranges between the Amazonian and Brazilian Atlantic Forests. We performed niche overlap analysis and ecological niche modeling using four machine-learning algorithms to evaluate whether species' ecological niches evolved or remained conserved after the past South American biogeographic events. We found a low niche overlap among the same species populations in the two biomes. However, niche similarity tests showed that, for half of the species, the overlap was higher than the ones generated by our null models. These results lead us to conclude that niche conservatism was not enough to avoid ecological differentiation among species even though detected in many species. In sum, our results support the role of climatic changes in late-Pleistocene-that isolated Amazon and the Atlantic Forest-as a driving force of ecological differences among the same species populations and potential mechanism of current diversification in both regions.

The role of climate and environmental variables in structuring bird assemblages in the Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests (SDTFs).

Understanding the processes that influence species diversity is still a challenge in ecological studies. However, there are two main theories to discuss this topic, the niche theory and the neutral theory. Our objective was to understand the importance of environmental and spatial processes in structuring bird communities within the hydrological seasons in dry forest areas in northeastern Brazil. The study was conducted in two National Parks, the Serra da Capivara and Serra das Confusões National Parks, where 36 areas were sampled in different seasons (dry, dry/rainy transition, rainy, rainy/dry transition), in 2012 and 2013. We found with our results that bird species richness is higher in the rainy season and lower during the dry season, indicating a strong influence of seasonality, a pattern also found for environmental heterogeneity. Richness was explained by local environmental factors, while species composition was explained by environmental and spatial factors. The environmental factors were more important in explaining variations in composition. Climate change predictions have currently pointed out frequent drought events and a rise in global temperature by 2050, which would lead to changes in species behavior and to increasing desertification in some regions, including the Caatinga. In addition, the high deforestation rates and the low level of representativeness of the Caatinga in the conservation units negatively affects bird communities. This scenario has demonstrated how climatic factors affect individuals, and, therefore, should be the starting point for conservation initiatives to be developed in xeric environments.

Delimiting priority areas for the conservation of endemic and threatened Neotropical birds using a niche-based gap analysis.

Knowledge of spatiotemporal distribution of biodiversity is still very incomplete in the tropics. This is one of the major problems preventing the assessment and effectiveness of conservation actions. Mega-diverse tropical regions are being exposed to fast and profound environmental changes, and the amount of resources available to describe the distribution of species is generally limited. Thus, the tropics is losing species at unprecedented rates, without a proper assessment of its biodiversity. Species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to fill such biogeographic gaps within a species' range and, when allied with systematic conservation planning (e.g. analyses of representativeness, gap analysis), help transcend such data shortage and support practical conservation actions. Within the Neotropics, eastern Amazon and northern Cerrado present a high variety of environments and are some of the most interesting ecotonal areas within South America, but are also among the most threatened biogeographic provinces in the world. Here, we test the effectiveness of the current system of Protected Areas (PAs), in protecting 24 threatened and endemic bird species using SDMs. We found that taxa with wider distributions are potentially as protected as taxa with smaller ranges, and larger PAs were more efficient than smaller PAs, while protecting these bird species. Nonetheless, Cerrado PAs are mostly misallocated. We suggest six priority areas for conservation of Neotropical birds. Finally, we highlight the importance of indigenous lands in the conservation of Neotropical biodiversity, and recommend the development of community management plans to conserve the biological resources of the region.

Phylogeography, inter-specific limits and diversification of Turdus ignobilis (Aves: Turdidae).

Turdus ignobilis is a widely distributed thrush species throughout northern South America and the Amazon, inhabiting a diverse set of habitats ranging from floodplain forests, white sand "campinas", to highland forests (Andes and Tepuis). There are currently six known subspecies of T. ignobilis, which vary extensively phenotypically and also ecologically, but whose interspecific limits and evolutionary history have never been investigated before. In this study, we used molecular data and plumage characters to review the taxonomy and uncover the evolutionary relationships of the six T. ignobilis subspecies described to date. We estimated gene and species trees based on both mitochondrial (ND2 and COI) and nuclear (TGFB2 and G3PDH) genes, which recovered, with high statistical support, the polyphyly of Turdus ignobilis, as currently defined. Therefore, based on our results, we propose a new taxonomic treatment that splits T. ignobilis into at least three separate species based on both molecular data and plumage characters. Each newly recognized species inhabit a distinct habitat type, with "true" T. ignobilis occurring in highland habitats of the Tepuis and the Andes, while T. arthuri and T. debilis are tied to "white-sand forest" and várzea floodplain forests in lowland Amazonia, respectively.