ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: Expressing the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in relation to peers may complement the estimation of absolute CVD risk. We aimed to determine 10-year CVD risk percentiles by sex and age in the Brazilian population and evaluate their association with estimated long-term atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) risk. METHODS: A cross-sectional analysis of baseline data from the ELSA-Brasil study was conducted in individuals aged 40-74 years without prior ASCVD. Ten-year CVD risk and long-term ASCVD risk were estimated by the WHO risk score and the Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium tool, respectively. Ten-year risk percentiles were determined by ranking the calculated risks within each sex and age group. RESULTS: Ten-year CVD risk versus percentile plots were constructed for each sex and age group using data from 13,364 participants (55% females; median age, 52 [IQR, 46-59] years). Long-term ASCVD risk was calculated in 12,973 (97.1%) participants. Compared to individuals at the <25th risk percentile, those at the ≥75th percentile had a greater risk of being in the highest quartile of long-term risk (ORs [95% CIs] 6.57 [5.18-8.30] in females and 11.59 [8.42-15.96] in males) in regression models adjusted for age, race, education, and 10-year CVD risk. In both sexes, the association between risk percentile and long-term risk weakened after age 50. A tool for calculating 10-year CVD risk and the corresponding percentile is available at https://bit.ly/3CzPUi6. CONCLUSIONS: We established percentiles of predicted 10-year CVD risk by sex and age in the Brazilian population, which independently reflect the estimated long-term ASCVD risk in younger individuals.
Subject(s)
Atherosclerosis , Cardiovascular Diseases , Male , Female , Humans , Middle Aged , Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology , Brazil/epidemiology , Cross-Sectional Studies , Risk Assessment , Atherosclerosis/epidemiology , Risk FactorsABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Expressing the risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) as percentiles of the distribution according to sex and age may provide a better perception of the risk. OBJECTIVES: To determine percentiles of the 10-year ASCVD risk distribution according to sex and age in a sample of the Brazilian population; to characterize individuals at low 10-year risk but high risk percentile. METHODS: We analyzed individuals aged 40 to 75 years who underwent routine health evaluations from 2010 to 2020. Persons with known clinical ASCVD, diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease, or LDL-cholesterol ≥ 190 mg/dL were excluded. The 10-year ASCVD risk was calculated by the ACC/AHA pooled cohort equations. Local polynomial regression was used to determine risk percentiles. Two-sided p-values < 0.050 were considered statistically significant. RESULTS: Our sample comprised 54,145 visits (72% male, median age [interquartile range] 48 [43, 53] years). We constructed sex-specific graphs plotting age against ASCVD risk corresponding to the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles. Most males up to 47 years and females up to 59 years above the 75th percentile had a 10-year risk < 5%. Individuals at low 10-year risk and risk percentile ≥ 75th had a high prevalence of excess weight and median (interquartile range) LDL-cholesterol levels 136 (109, 158) mg/dL (males) and 126 (105, 147) mg/dL (females). CONCLUSIONS: We established ASCVD risk percentiles according to sex and age in a large sample of the Brazilian population. This approach may increase risk awareness and help identify younger persons at low 10-year risk who may benefit from more aggressive risk factor control.
FUNDAMENTO: Expressar o risco de doença cardiovascular aterosclerótica (DCVA) em percentis da distribuição por sexo e idade pode proporcionar uma melhor percepção do risco. OBJETIVOS: Determinar os percentis da distribuição do risco de DCVA em 10 anos segundo sexo e idade em uma amostra da população brasileira; caracterizar indivíduos com baixo risco em 10 anos, mas em alto percentil de risco. MÉTODOS: Analisamos indivíduos de 40 a 75 anos que realizaram avaliações de saúde de rotina de 2010 a 2020. Foram excluídos indivíduos com DCVA clínica conhecida, diabetes mellitus, doença renal crônica ou LDL-colesterol ≥ 190 mg/dL. O risco de DCVA em 10 anos foi calculado pelas equações das coortes agrupadas do American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association. Foi utilizada a regressão polinomial local para determinar os percentis de risco. Valores de p bilateral < 0,050 foram considerados estatisticamente significativos. RESULTADOS: Nossa amostra incluiu 54.145 atendimentos (72% do sexo masculino, idade mediana [intervalo interquartil] 48 [43; 53] anos). Construímos gráficos específicos por sexo traçando a idade contra o risco de DCVA correspondente aos percentis 10, 25, 50, 75 e 90. A maioria dos homens até 47 anos e mulheres até 59 anos acima do percentil 75 apresentaram risco em 10 anos < 5%. Indivíduos com baixo risco em 10 anos e percentil de risco ≥ 75 apresentaram alta prevalência de excesso de peso e níveis medianos (intervalos interquartis) de LDL-colesterol de 136 (109; 158) mg/dL (sexo masculino) e 126 (105; 147) mg/dL (sexo feminino). CONCLUSÕES: Estabelecemos percentis de risco de DCVA segundo sexo e idade em uma grande amostra da população brasileira. Essa abordagem pode aumentar a conscientização sobre o risco e ajudar a identificar pessoas mais jovens com baixo risco em 10 anos que podem se beneficiar de um controle mais agressivo dos fatores de risco.
Subject(s)
Atherosclerosis , Cardiovascular Diseases , Hydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA Reductase Inhibitors , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology , Cardiovascular Diseases/etiology , Risk Factors , Brazil/epidemiology , Atherosclerosis/epidemiology , Cholesterol, LDL , Heart Disease Risk Factors , Risk AssessmentABSTRACT
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Metabolically healthy (MHO) and unhealthy obesity (MUO) may be transient conditions. This study aimed to quantify and identify predictive factors of metabolic transitions in obesity, exploring influences of age and sex. METHODS AND RESULTS: We retrospectively evaluated adults with obesity who underwent routine health evaluation. In a cross-sectional analysis of 12,118 individuals (80% male, age 44.3 ± 9.9 years), 16.8% had MHO. In a longitudinal evaluation of 4483 participants, 45.2% of individuals with MHO at baseline had dysmetabolism after a median follow-up of 3.0 (IQR 1.8-5.2) years, whereas 13.3% MUO participants became metabolically healthy (MH). Development of hepatic steatosis (HS, ultrasound) was an independent predictor of MHO conversion to dysmetabolism (OR 2.36; 95% CI 1.43, 3.91; p < 0.001), while HS persistence was inversely associated with transition from MUO to MH status (OR 0.63; 95% CI 0.47, 0.83; p = 0.001). Female sex and older age were associated with a lower chance of MUO regression. A 5% increment in body mass index (BMI) over time increased the likelihood of metabolic deterioration by 33% (p = 0.002) in females and 16% (p = 0.018) in males with MHO. A 5% reduction in BMI was associated with a 39% and 66% higher chance of MUO resolution in females and males, respectively (both p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The findings support a pathophysiological role of ectopic fat depots in metabolic transitions in obesity and identify female sex as an aggravating factor for adiposity-induced dysmetabolism, which has implications for personalized medicine.
Subject(s)
Fatty Liver , Metabolic Syndrome , Obesity, Metabolically Benign , Adult , Humans , Male , Female , Middle Aged , Adiposity , Retrospective Studies , Cross-Sectional Studies , Health Transition , Obesity/diagnosis , Obesity/epidemiology , Body Mass Index , Obesity, Metabolically Benign/diagnosis , Obesity, Metabolically Benign/epidemiology , Risk Factors , PhenotypeABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Experimental studies have linked triglyceride-rich lipoproteins (TRLs) to inflammation, but the extent of this phenomenon in vivo has not been completely elucidated. OBJECTIVE: We investigated the association between TRL subparticles and inflammatory markers (circulating leukocytes, plasma high-sensitivity C-reactive protein [hs-CRP], and GlycA) in the general population. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional analysis of the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil). TRLs (number of particles per unit volume) and GlycA were measured by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. The association between TRLs and inflammatory markers was determined by multiple linear regression models adjusted for demographic data, metabolic conditions, and lifestyle factors. Standardized regression coefficients (beta) with 95% confidence intervals are reported. RESULTS: The study population comprised 4,001 individuals (54% females, age 50 ± 9 years). TRLs, especially medium and large subparticles, were associated with GlycA (beta 0.202 [0.168, 0.235], p<0.001 for total TRLs). There was no association between TRLs and hs-CRP (beta 0.022 [-0.011, 0.056], p = 0.190). Medium, large, and very large TRLs were associated with leukocytes, with stronger connections with neutrophils and lymphocytes than monocytes. When TRL subclasses were analyzed as the proportion of the total pool of TRL particles, medium and large TRLs were positively related to leukocytes and GlycA, whereas smaller particles were inversely associated. CONCLUSIONS: There are different patterns of association between TRL subparticles and inflammatory markers. The findings support the hypothesis that TRLs (especially medium and larger subparticles) may induce a low-grade inflammatory environment that involves leukocyte activation and is captured by GlycA, but not hs-CRP.
Subject(s)
Inflammation , Lipoproteins , Female , Humans , Adult , Middle Aged , Male , Longitudinal Studies , Brazil/epidemiology , Cross-Sectional Studies , Triglycerides , C-Reactive Protein/analysis , Leukocytes/chemistryABSTRACT
Resumo Fundamento Expressar o risco de doença cardiovascular aterosclerótica (DCVA) em percentis da distribuição por sexo e idade pode proporcionar uma melhor percepção do risco. Objetivos Determinar os percentis da distribuição do risco de DCVA em 10 anos segundo sexo e idade em uma amostra da população brasileira; caracterizar indivíduos com baixo risco em 10 anos, mas em alto percentil de risco. Métodos Analisamos indivíduos de 40 a 75 anos que realizaram avaliações de saúde de rotina de 2010 a 2020. Foram excluídos indivíduos com DCVA clínica conhecida, diabetes mellitus, doença renal crônica ou LDL-colesterol ≥ 190 mg/dL. O risco de DCVA em 10 anos foi calculado pelas equações das coortes agrupadas do American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association. Foi utilizada a regressão polinomial local para determinar os percentis de risco. Valores de p bilateral < 0,050 foram considerados estatisticamente significativos. Resultados Nossa amostra incluiu 54.145 atendimentos (72% do sexo masculino, idade mediana [intervalo interquartil] 48 [43; 53] anos). Construímos gráficos específicos por sexo traçando a idade contra o risco de DCVA correspondente aos percentis 10, 25, 50, 75 e 90. A maioria dos homens até 47 anos e mulheres até 59 anos acima do percentil 75 apresentaram risco em 10 anos < 5%. Indivíduos com baixo risco em 10 anos e percentil de risco ≥ 75 apresentaram alta prevalência de excesso de peso e níveis medianos (intervalos interquartis) de LDL-colesterol de 136 (109; 158) mg/dL (sexo masculino) e 126 (105; 147) mg/dL (sexo feminino). Conclusões Estabelecemos percentis de risco de DCVA segundo sexo e idade em uma grande amostra da população brasileira. Essa abordagem pode aumentar a conscientização sobre o risco e ajudar a identificar pessoas mais jovens com baixo risco em 10 anos que podem se beneficiar de um controle mais agressivo dos fatores de risco.
Abstract Background Expressing the risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) as percentiles of the distribution according to sex and age may provide a better perception of the risk. Objectives To determine percentiles of the 10-year ASCVD risk distribution according to sex and age in a sample of the Brazilian population; to characterize individuals at low 10-year risk but high risk percentile. Methods We analyzed individuals aged 40 to 75 years who underwent routine health evaluations from 2010 to 2020. Persons with known clinical ASCVD, diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease, or LDL-cholesterol ≥ 190 mg/dL were excluded. The 10-year ASCVD risk was calculated by the ACC/AHA pooled cohort equations. Local polynomial regression was used to determine risk percentiles. Two-sided p-values < 0.050 were considered statistically significant. Results Our sample comprised 54,145 visits (72% male, median age [interquartile range] 48 [43, 53] years). We constructed sex-specific graphs plotting age against ASCVD risk corresponding to the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles. Most males up to 47 years and females up to 59 years above the 75th percentile had a 10-year risk < 5%. Individuals at low 10-year risk and risk percentile ≥ 75th had a high prevalence of excess weight and median (interquartile range) LDL-cholesterol levels 136 (109, 158) mg/dL (males) and 126 (105, 147) mg/dL (females). Conclusions We established ASCVD risk percentiles according to sex and age in a large sample of the Brazilian population. This approach may increase risk awareness and help identify younger persons at low 10-year risk who may benefit from more aggressive risk factor control.
