Phylogenetic classification of the world's tropical forests.

Knowledge about the biogeographic affinities of the world's tropical forests helps to better understand regional differences in forest structure, diversity, composition, and dynamics. Such understanding will enable anticipation of region-specific responses to global environmental change. Modern phylogenies, in combination with broad coverage of species inventory data, now allow for global biogeographic analyses that take species evolutionary distance into account. Here we present a classification of the world's tropical forests based on their phylogenetic similarity. We identify five principal floristic regions and their floristic relationships: (i) Indo-Pacific, (ii) Subtropical, (iii) African, (iv) American, and (v) Dry forests. Our results do not support the traditional neo- versus paleotropical forest division but instead separate the combined American and African forests from their Indo-Pacific counterparts. We also find indications for the existence of a global dry forest region, with representatives in America, Africa, Madagascar, and India. Additionally, a northern-hemisphere Subtropical forest region was identified with representatives in Asia and America, providing support for a link between Asian and American northern-hemisphere forests.

Using Risk Assessment and Habitat Suitability Models to Prioritise Invasive Species for Management in a Changing Climate.

Accounting for climate change in invasive species risk assessments improves our understanding of potential future impacts and enhances our preparedness for the arrival of new non-native species. We combined traditional risk assessment for invasive species with habitat suitability modeling to assess risk to biodiversity based on climate change. We demonstrate our method by assessing the risk for 15 potentially new invasive plant species to Alberta, Canada, an area where climate change is expected to facilitate the poleward expansion of invasive species ranges. Of the 15 species assessed, the three terrestrial invasive plant species that could pose the greatest threat to Alberta's biodiversity are giant knotweed (Fallopia sachalinensis), tamarisk (Tamarix chinensis), and alkali swainsonpea (Sphaerophysa salsula). We characterise giant knotweed as 'extremely invasive', with 21 times the suitable habitat between baseline and future projected climate. Tamarisk is 'extremely invasive' with a 64% increase in suitable habitat, and alkali swainsonpea is 'highly invasive' with a 21% increase in suitable habitat. Our methodology can be used to predict and prioritise potentially new invasive species for their impact on biodiversity in the context of climate change.

An estimate of the number of tropical tree species.

The high species richness of tropical forests has long been recognized, yet there remains substantial uncertainty regarding the actual number of tropical tree species. Using a pantropical tree inventory database from closed canopy forests, consisting of 657,630 trees belonging to 11,371 species, we use a fitted value of Fisher's alpha and an approximate pantropical stem total to estimate the minimum number of tropical forest tree species to fall between ∼ 40,000 and ∼ 53,000, i.e., at the high end of previous estimates. Contrary to common assumption, the Indo-Pacific region was found to be as species-rich as the Neotropics, with both regions having a minimum of ∼ 19,000-25,000 tree species. Continental Africa is relatively depauperate with a minimum of ∼ 4,500-6,000 tree species. Very few species are shared among the African, American, and the Indo-Pacific regions. We provide a methodological framework for estimating species richness in trees that may help refine species richness estimates of tree-dependent taxa.

Evaluation of forest recovery over time and space using permanent plots monitored over 30 years in a Jamaican montane rain forest.

Conservation of tropical forest biodiversity increasingly depends on its recovery following severe human disturbance. Our ability to measure recovery using current similarity indices suffers from two limitations: different sized individuals are treated as equal, and the indices are proportionate (a community with twice the individuals of every species as compared with the reference community would be assessed as identical). We define an alternative recovery index for trees - the Tanner index, as the mean of the quantitative Bray-Curtis similarity indices of species composition for stem density and for basal area. We used the new index to compare the original (pre-gap) and post-gap composition of five experimental gap plots (each 90-100 m(2)) and four control plots over 24-35 years in the Blue Mountains of Jamaica. After 24-35 years, these small gaps surrounded by undisturbed forest had recovered 68% of the sum of per species stem density and 29% of the sum of per species basal area, a recovery index of 47%. Four endemic species were especially reduced in density and basal area. With the incorporation of basal area and stem density, our index reduces over-estimations of forest recovery obtained using existing similarity indices (by 24%-41%), and thus yields more accurate estimates of forest conservation status. Finally, our study indicates that the two kinds of comparisons: 1) over time between pre-gap and post-gap composition and 2) over space between gap plots and spatial controls (space-for-time substitution) yield broadly similar results, which supports the value of using space-for-time substitutions in studying forest recovery, at least in this tropical montane forest.