ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: Accurately predicting knee osteoarthritis (KOA) is essential for early detection and personalized treatment. We aimed to develop and test a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based joint space (JS) radiomic model (RM) to predict radiographic KOA incidence through neural networks by integrating meniscus and femorotibial cartilage radiomic features. METHODS: In the Osteoarthritis Initiative cohort, participants with knees without radiographic KOA at baseline but at high risk for radiographic KOA were included. Patients' knees developed radiographic KOA, whereas control knees did not over four years. We randomly split the participants into development and test cohorts (8:2) and extracted features from baseline three-dimensional double-echo steady-state sequence MRI. Model performance was evaluated using an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity in both cohorts. Nine resident surgeons performed the reader experiment without/with the JS-RM aid. RESULTS: Our study included 549 knees in the development cohort (275 knees of patients with KOA vs 274 knees of controls) and 137 knees in the test cohort (68 knees of patients with KOA vs 69 knees of controls). In the test cohort, JS-RM had a favorable accuracy for predicting the radiographic KOA incidence with an AUC of 0.931 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.876-0.963), a sensitivity of 84.4% (95% CI 83.9%-84.9%), and a specificity of 85.6% (95% CI 85.2%-86.0%). The mean specificity and sensitivity of resident surgeons through MRI reading in predicting radiographic KOA incidence were increased from 0.474 (95% CI 0.333-0.614) and 0.586 (95% CI 0.429-0.743) without the assistance of JS-RM to 0.874 (95% CI 0.847-0.901) and 0.812 (95% CI 0.742-0.881) with JS-RM assistance, respectively (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: JS-RM integrating the features of the meniscus and cartilage showed improved predictive values in radiographic KOA incidence.
