The Physiatry Workforce in 2019 and Beyond, Part 1: Results From a Cross-sectional Survey.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to describe the current physiatrist workforce in the United States. DESIGN: An online, cross-sectional survey of board-certified physiatrists in 2019 (N = 616 completed, 30.1% response) collected information about demographic and practice characteristics, including age, sex, practice area, practice setting, hours worked, patient characteristics, staffing, and work responsibilities. Physiatrists were stratified by substantive practice patterns using a cluster analysis approach. Survey responses were arrayed across the practice patterns and differences noted. RESULTS: The practice patterns identified included musculoskeletal/pain medicine, general/neurological rehabilitation, academic practice, pediatric rehabilitation, orthopedic/complex conditions rehabilitation, and disability/occupational rehabilitation. Many differences were observed across these practice patterns. Notably, primary practice setting and the extent and ways in which other healthcare staff are used in physiatry practices differed across practice patterns. Physiatrists working in musculoskeletal/pain medicine and disability/occupational rehabilitation were least likely to work with nurse practitioners and physician assistants. Physiatrists working in academic practice, general/neurological rehabilitation, and pediatric rehabilitation were most likely to have primary practice settings in hospitals. CONCLUSIONS: Physiatry is an evolving medical specialty affected by many of the same trends as other medical specialties. The results of this survey can inform policy discussions and further research on the effects of these trends on physiatrists and physiatry practice in the future.

The Physiatry Workforce in 2019 and Beyond, Part 2: Modeling Results.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to assess the current and future adequacy of physiatrist supply in the United States. DESIGN: A 2019 online survey of board-certified physiatrists (n = 616 completed, 30.1% response) collected information about demographics, practice characteristics, hours worked, and retirement intentions. Microsimulation models projected future physiatrist supply and demand using data from the American Board of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, national and state population projections, American Community Survey, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, and other sources. RESULTS: Approximately 37% of 8853 active physiatrists indicate that their workload exceeds capacity, 59% indicate that workload is at capacity, and 4% indicate under capacity. These findings suggest a national shortfall of 940 (10.6%) physiatrists in 2017, with substantial geographic variation in supply adequacy. Projected growth in physiatrist supply from 2017 to 2030 approximately equals demand growth (2250 vs. 2390), suggesting that without changes in care delivery, the shortfall of physiatrists will persist, with a 1080 (9.7%) physiatrist shortfall in 2030. CONCLUSION: Without an increase in physiatry residency positions, the current national shortfall of physiatrists is projected to persist. Although a projected increase in physiatrists' use of advanced practice providers may help preserve access to comprehensive physiatry care, it is not expected to eliminate the shortfall.

The pediatric dental workforce in 2016 and beyond.

BACKGROUND: Childhood caries is a major oral and general health problem, particularly in certain populations. In this study, the authors aimed to evaluate the adequacy of the supply of pediatric dentists. METHODS: The authors collected baseline practice information from 2,546 pediatric dentists through an online survey (39.1% response rate) in 2017. The authors used a workforce simulation model by using data from the survey and other sources to produce estimates under several scenarios to anticipate future supply and demand for pediatric dentists. RESULTS: If production of new pediatric dentists and use and delivery of oral health care continue at current rates, the pediatric dentist supply will increase by 4,030 full-time equivalent (FTE) dentists by 2030, whereas demand will increase by 140 FTE dentists by 2030. Supply growth was higher under hypothetical scenarios with an increased number of graduates (4,690 FTEs) and delayed retirement (4,320 FTEs). If children who are underserved experience greater access to care or if pediatric dentists provide a larger portion of services for children, demand could grow by 2,100 FTE dentists or by 10,470 FTE dentists, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The study results suggest that the supply of pediatric dentists is growing more rapidly than is the demand. Growth in demand could increase if pediatric dentists captured a larger share of pediatric dental services or if children who are underserved had oral health care use patterns similar to those of the population with fewer access barriers. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: It is important to encourage policy changes to reduce barriers to accessing oral health care, to continue pediatric dentists' participation with Medicaid programs, and to urge early dental services for children.

Diabetes diagnosis and management among insured adults across metropolitan areas in the U.S.

This study provides diabetes-related metrics for the 50 largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. in 2012-including prevalence of diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes, insurance status of the population with diabetes, diabetes medication use, and prevalence of poorly controlled diabetes. Diabetes prevalence estimates were calculated using cross-sectional data combining the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, American Community Survey, National Nursing Home Survey, Census population files, and National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Analysis of medical claims files (2012 de-identified Normative Health Information database, 2011 Medicare Standard Analytical Files, and 2008 Medicaid Analytic eXtract) produced information on treatment and poorly controlled diabetes by geographic location, insurance type, sex, and age group. Among insured adults with diagnosed type 2 diabetes in 2012, the proportion receiving diabetes medications ranged from 83% in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, to 65% in West Palm Beach, Florida. The proportion of treated patients with medical claims indicating poorly controlled diabetes was lowest in Minneapolis, Minnesota (36%) and highest in Texas metropolitan areas of Austin (51%), San Antonio (51%), and Houston (50%). Estimates of diabetes detection and management across metropolitan areas often differ from state and national estimates. Local metrics of diabetes management can be helpful for tracking improvements in communities over time.

Type 2 diabetes detection and management among insured adults.

BACKGROUND: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that 28.9 million adults had diabetes in 2012 in the US, though many patients are undiagnosed or not managing their condition. This study provides US national and state estimates of insured adults with type 2 diabetes who are diagnosed, receiving exams and medication, managing glycemic levels, with diabetes complications, and their health expenditures. Such information can be used for benchmarking and to identify gaps in diabetes detection and management. METHODS: The study combines analysis of survey data with medical claims analysis for the commercially insured, Medicare, and Medicaid populations to estimate the number of adults with diagnosed type 2 diabetes and undiagnosed diabetes by insurance type, age, and sex. Medical claims analysis used the 2012 de-identified Normative Health Information database covering a nationally representative commercially insured population, the 2011 Medicare 5% Sample, and the 2008 Medicaid Mini-Max. RESULTS: Among insured adults in 2012, approximately 16.9 million had diagnosed type 2 diabetes, 1.45 million had diagnosed type 1 diabetes, and 6.9 million had undiagnosed diabetes. Of those with diagnosed type 2, approximately 13.0 million (77%) received diabetes medication-ranging from 70% in New Jersey to 82% in Utah. Suboptimal percentages had claims indicating recommended exams were performed. Of those receiving diabetes medication, 43% (5.6 million) had medical claims indicating poorly controlled diabetes-ranging from 29% with poor control in Minnesota and Iowa to 53% in Texas. Poor control was correlated with higher prevalence of neurological complications (+14%), renal complications (+14%), and peripheral vascular disease (+11%). Patients with poor control averaged $4,860 higher average annual health care expenditures-ranging from $6,680 for commercially insured patients to $4,360 for Medicaid and $3,430 for Medicare patients. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the large number of insured adults with undiagnosed type 2 diabetes by insurance type and state. Furthermore, this study sheds light on other gaps in diabetes care quality among patients with diagnosed diabetes and corresponding poorly controlled diabetes. These findings underscore the need for improvements in data collection and diabetes screening and management, along with policies that support these improvements.

Estimated demand for women's health services by 2020.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the demand for women's health care by 2020 using today's national utilization standards. METHODS: This descriptive study incorporated the most current national data resources to design a simulation model to create a health and economic profile for a representative sample of women from each state. Demand was determined utilizing equations about projected use of obstetrics-gynecology (ob-gyn) services. Applying patient profile and health care demand equations, we estimated the demand for providers in 2010 in each state for comparison with supply based on the 2010 American Medical Association Masterfile. U.S. Census Bureau population projections were used to project women's health care demands in 2020. RESULTS: The national demand for women's health care is forecast to grow by 6% by 2020. Most (81%) ob-gyn related services will be for women of reproductive age (18-44 years old). Growth in demand is forecast to be highest in states with the greatest population growth (Texas, Florida), where supply is currently less than adequate (western United States), and among Hispanic women. This increase in demand by 2020 will translate into a need for physicians or nonphysician clinicians, which is clinically equivalent to 2,090 full-time ob-gyns. CONCLUSION: Using today's national norms of ob-gyn related services, a modest growth in women's health care demands is estimated by 2020 that will require a larger provider workforce.

Supply and demand analysis of the current and future US neurology workforce.

OBJECTIVE: This study estimates current and projects future neurologist supply and demand under alternative scenarios nationally and by state from 2012 through 2025. METHODS: A microsimulation supply model simulates likely career choices of individual neurologists, taking into account the number of new neurologists trained each year and changing demographics of the neurology workforce. A microsimulation demand model simulates utilization of neurology services for each individual in a representative sample of the population in each state and for the United States as a whole. Demand projections reflect increased prevalence of neurologic conditions associated with population growth and aging, and expanded coverage under health care reform. RESULTS: The estimated active supply of 16,366 neurologists in 2012 is projected to increase to 18,060 by 2025. Long wait times for patients to see a neurologist, difficulty hiring new neurologists, and large numbers of neurologists who do not accept new Medicaid patients are consistent with a current national shortfall of neurologists. Demand for neurologists is projected to increase from ∼18,180 in 2012 (11% shortfall) to 21,440 by 2025 (19% shortfall). This includes an increased demand of 520 full-time equivalent neurologists starting in 2014 from expanded medical insurance coverage associated with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. CONCLUSIONS: In the absence of efforts to increase the number of neurology professionals and retain the existing workforce, current national and geographic shortfalls of neurologists are likely to worsen, exacerbating long wait times and reducing access to care for Medicaid beneficiaries. Current geographic differences in adequacy of supply likely will persist into the future.

The current and projected economic burden of Parkinson's disease in the United States.

Parkinson's disease (PD), following Alzheimer's disease, is the second-most common neurodegenerative disorder in the United States. A lack of treatment options for changing the trajectory of disease progression, in combination with an increasing elderly population, portends a rising economic burden on patients and payers. This study combined information from nationally representative surveys to create a burden of PD model. The model estimates disease prevalence, excess healthcare use and medical costs, and nonmedical costs for each demographic group defined by age and sex. Estimated prevalence rates and costs were applied to the U.S. Census Bureau's 2010 to 2050 population data to estimate current and projected burden based on changing demographics. We estimate that approximately 630,000 people in the United States had diagnosed PD in 2010, with diagnosed prevalence likely to double by 2040. The national economic burden of PD exceeds $14.4 billion in 2010 (approximately $22,800 per patient). The population with PD incurred medical expenses of approximately $14 billion in 2010, $8.1 billion higher ($12,800 per capita) than expected for a similar population without PD. Indirect costs (e.g., reduced employment) are conservatively estimated at $6.3 billion (or close to $10,000 per person with PD). The burden of chronic conditions such as PD is projected to grow substantially over the next few decades as the size of the elderly population grows. Such projections give impetus to the need for innovative new treatments to prevent, delay onset, or alleviate symptoms of PD and other similar diseases.